Can Pelini cure October woes?
18 comments so far
March 10, 2010 by
I know it's only March, but I want to talk about October.
As spring football approaches you can already feel the excitement building around this 2010 team. Most people consider Nebraska a strong Big 12 championship contender which, in most years, makes you a strong national championship contender as well.
Personally, I think Nebraska is there in terms of returning talent and momentum. But this is a different set of expectations than what Pelini was operating under in his first two seasons. No room for a midseason swoon here.
I find this breakdown fascinating: Since taking over Pelini is 6-2 in the month of September, 4-4 in October and 7-1 in November. All in all, this seems like a fairly above average breakdown for a coach.
I look at it like this. Any coach worth his salt at a school like Nebraska better win 75% of his games in the first month of the season. These are your cupcakes, the wins you purchased, and you get the added boost of the excitement for a new season. The middle of the season is trickier. Now you're in conference play, injuries pile up a little bit, the weather changes and some of that early season excitement has started to fade. What happens in that middle portion, largely determines your approach for the last portion.
In Pelini's case, with a .500 record in October, Nebraska's has had the advantage of a rally the troops/achieve the goals mentality in each of the past two seasons. The fact that Pelini has, in fact, done that effectively is testament to his ability but when it comes to motivation that's sort of the low hanging fruit, isn't it? Is it more difficult to keep a team motivated and executing for an entire season or to re-motivate them once they've been humbled?
We know Pelini can do the latter but what 2010 becomes about is finding out if he can do the former. Nebraska has had two bad losses (TT '09, Mizzou '08), one fluky one (ISU '09) and one good loss (TT '08) in October over the past two seasons. But for a team with championship aspirations, a loss in 2010 at any time of year sets Nebraska back more than it did in either 2008 or 2009.
And for all the talk of Nebraska's cushy schedule, October doesn't provide many easy outs. Kansas State on the road will be a physical game, then there's the Texas game with the very real possibility for a "too many eggs in the basket" scenario. After that you have a road trip to what should be a slightly weakened Oklahoma State team and then you round out the month with your primary competition in the North in Missouri. I wouldn't call any of them a gimme.
Based on what he had when he got here and where Nebraska is at now, I'd say without too many reservations that Bo Pelini has done a perfect job in his first two years as coach. He's put Nebraska in a position where thinking they could actually be perfect isn't out of the question.
Now we just have to see it.
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darren Mar 10 10
Smart stuff, Brandon.
No doubt, NU can't afford any "bad" or "fluky" losses in October 2010. They could handle a "good" loss and still get to where they want. But that is about it.
Great point about how Pelini has used October woes to fuel November success. And, give him big credit as a closer. That's getting it done when it counts most.
Now, if they don't lose in October, can he instill the urgency and passion in November? I hope we get the chance to find out.
AustinHusker Mar 10 10
Overall our schedule sets up very nicely, but if you only looked at October, maybe not so much.
It isnt unbelievable for a team with high expectations, but OSU, UT, and Mizz. Throw in KSU and all of a sudden it doesnt look so easy.
November with KU and A&M, maybe not give me's but come on if you cant beat those two you should start looking for a bowl trip to Texas and I am not talking about the Cotton bowl.
Later
Boz Mar 10 10
Looking at your upcoming schedule and last years wins how about you guys call us when you actually beat someone good. Hint: do not call us until sometime in Oct. The Big X11 North is terrible so someone; please pick any win last year that has you guys thinking YOUR BACK? Looks to me like the rest of the North is bad, that does not make you good..you beat OU's 3rd string and you would have thought you beat the New Orleans Saints...gee people get a grip...
Bill Mar 11 10
Quotes from "Boz"
"The Big X11 North is terrible so someone; please pick any win last year that has you guys thinking YOUR BACK? "
---------------
This raises some tough questions for me:
1) What is the Big X Eleven?
2) Why is this guy talking about my back?
Survey Says:
Incoherent Idiot
Ryan Mar 11 10
boz, why are you here? seriously? can we not be excited that our team, who this article is talking about by the way, didn't lose as many games as they did in previous years? we enjoy progress. we basically shut down texas (we all know that ended) and they go on to score a lot more points in the national championship w/o colt. point is: our defense has the potential to be championship-caliber, and the offense can't get any worse. we like to believe that our team can win all of their games on the schedule.
alright, got that boz? thanks, goodbye.
Boz Mar 11 10
ryan, so a loss gives you hope? LOL...and beating OU's 3rd string gives you hope...well HOPE FLOATS...just not sure what is coming to the top..LOL..really guys good luck. Lets all pray that the North Division stays real crappy so you guys can hold your head up high..YIPPEE.
HuskerGreg Mar 11 10
Boz...I think our high expectations are simple and not unresonable. We should have a solid Defense and on Offense we return experience, a bit more depth at QB, and a healthy O-line. Three big "IFs"...If we can stay healthy, If we can generate better offensive numbers, and If our Defense is anywhere near close to what it was last year, then we stand a good chance at winning the North and the Conference Championship. The above scenario is not unrealistic by anyones estimation. The truth will be determined on the field of play and not on your field or rants.
Boz Mar 11 10
Why does everyone on this site dodge the question I keep asking? I say the North Division is just plain terrible - so you have nothing to go on by saying you will be better next year. Also I keep hearing how great Bo is as a defensive coach but TT scored 31 on you at home and even Iowa State beat you at home. During THAT TIME FRAME not a soul was talking about how great Bo or the team was/is. Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado and Baylor later you are a great team? I guess ten years of being pathetic means those wins are now great wins? I wish you guys were great every week of every year but I can not jump on that ship just yet. Reason is this: Lets say you slip up and lose an early season game next year - 5 weeks later when you play UT the announcers and all the stories will be about how NU is back and bad ass to boot. Heck it happened that way this year. I study teams - not talking heads.
Dwayne Mar 11 10
Boz,
I've mentioned before because in my opinion "being back" doesn't have everything to do with wins. Being back to me is believing you have a shot to win every game on the schedule before the season starts. Being back is playing with fury on both sides of the ball and dictating the tone of the game. And in my opinion, after last season, and this point of game, NU is back. Hopefully that answers your question.
Ken Mar 11 10
Boz. Are you serious? The Huskers beat your 3rd string? Are you that clueless about your own team? If so, then your comments or thoughts have absolutely no merit. Sounds to me like someone is a little butt-hurt about losing to a team he thinks so little of. It doesnt matter if its the first, second, or 3rd string we beat. YOUR team who is all powerful, lost. L-O-S-T. So if our team is so terrible... look in your own back yard before barking in someone elses. Pure Moron.
Bob Mar 11 10
Boz. So I guess it was OU's third string plus the all powerful Gerald McCoy.
Boz Mar 11 10
Hey Ken,,and you LOST TO UT but can not seem to get over it either..lol..I know you owe them...this year is the year...I know I know. Thanks for the answer that NO ONE CARES TO COMMENT ON. THE BIG X11 North is really bad - but go ahead and act proud - it has been 10 years so go for it...lol If I only had one more second....lol
Brandon Mar 11 10
Boz,
I don't think ANY Nebraska fan thinks the North is anywhere near as strong as the South. There. It's been commented on.
That said, I'm not sure how it relates to Nebraska last year or next year in regards to the absolute value of "how good" they were/are. Do you really think that if NU had played in the South last year that they would've had a losing record in conference? Or do you think that they would've been in a fight with two or three other teams for the title of "second best" in the conference?
I suspect you'll say the former but I objectively I think most people would say the latter and that's about where Nebraska ended up.
Yes, the North is the weaker of the two divisions and that's an advantage for Nebraska. Go through the archives and you'll see that that idea has been brought up many times on this site.
Ken Mar 11 10
Bozzy boy... tsk tsk... you keep putting your foot in that mouth of yours. "Hey Ken,,and you LOST TO UT" hmmm very true Mr. Brains... but answer this, how well did your all powerful team do against them???? Yeah.....not nearly as well. But let me guess. The Sooners had their 3rd string playing right? Face it. Right now you are trying to have battle of the minds, but you my friend, are unarmed. Keep posting and keep proving my point.
Ken Mar 11 10
Back on topic here. Good article Brandon, but the part that has me a little bothered is the talk of Green getting the shot for spring/early summer, but the chance of Lee getting the reigns again after a couple months. It will be interesting to see how Wats has the offense tweaked for both QBs. Two different styles equals miscommunication. If we dont have a clear cut #1 by July at the latest, then October will be stressful. Even with the less than dominate schedule Boz has pointed out once or twice. This Offense needs to have its identity before our bowl game. Thoughts?
Jim Mar 12 10
Boz,if you study teams, you did a poor job of studying Nebraska. We all know who won the B 12 title game in the trenches and it wasn't Texass! Take away the one second, and you are not even posting here. You'd be in hiding. With all of the hype about UT recruiting classes being in the top 5 every year, they sure didn't look like the dominant team they are supposed to be. I can't stand people that think they are right about everything and then open their mouths only to prove they should keep it shut.
Boz Mar 13 10
ok Jim lets play..
If NU hadn't done so and so Iowa State would not have won, If TT had not done so and so NU would have won , one second blah blah, if only we had any offense we would have won, etc. Now we all know you needs to keep their mouth shut don't we? IF OU was not hurt blah blah, grown a pair man. 13-12 will be in that pea brain mind of yours forever and forever. YOU LOST GET OVER IT. Are you going to harm yourself if Oct 16th does not go the way you want it to? Are you going to clap for UT when they beat you again on Oct 16th? See what loosing does to a fan base that is spoiled? The real feelings come out. It was always so easy to be polite when you beat everyone up but the worm has turned and you can not stand it anymore. My hope is for UT to beat you and OU to beat you in the title game. Then maybe all this disillusion will finally go away.
jeffreyn1 Mar 13 10
I am going to disagree with Mr. Vogel for the following reasons.
1. I do not believe he knows anymore about NU football than the average fan.
2.It is just as much about coaching as it is about athletes.
3. Shawn Watson is still the OC(the coaching part) and NU has no QB,(the athlete part) and that appears as if it will not settle out until at least the middle of the season, if even then.
4. NU will lose to Texas at home because of the above reasons. I fully expect KU to challenge and beat NU for reasons that should be obvious.
NU will not be a national title challenger for at least 2 years, if then. And that is only if Watson wises up(he won't. The bowl game was like PS3 for him; try this, try that, blah, blah) or he is replaced.
He stated he wants a head coaching job. I say that Pelini will help him on his way.
Think about it. Why is Watson still here?
I mean, REALLY think about that.