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Published Today
by Darren K. Carlson
At Big Red Network, we love Husker football and want to write and talk about it every day. That's what we aim to do. You seldom find us pushing other agendas or hocking products. Maybe if we did, our following and wallets would grow faster. Anyway, I'm telling you all of this because I'm actually going to give you the "hard sell" on a product for a second. I assure you, we wouldn't endorse it if I didn't think it was something our readers could use and enjoy. Basically, buy this magazine. You will be glad you did.
Peruse the college football magazines coming out for the 2009 season and you might come to the conclusion that the Huskers are in trouble at quarterback. Both Athlon and Lindy’s rated Nebraska as 11th best in the Big 12 at QB. Sure Nebraska will be breaking in a new starter, but will there really be ten signal callers in the conference better than Zac Lee?
Two significant dates in Nebraska football fashion history:
September 18, 2008: I ask the question, "Will Nebraska ever throw it back?" I even proclaimed the funky serif style numbers of the early Devaney era my favorite jersey in the school's history.
June 29, 2009: Nebraska announces that they will, in fact, be wearing 1962 throwbacks to celebrate the 300th consecutive sellout at Memorial Stadium.
10 comments so far
3 days ago
by Darren K. Carlson
Every pre-season prognostication on the magazine racks right now talks about the lost production that Nebraska must replace at wide receiver. Many of those suddenly missing receptions and yards came from Nate Swift. Swift's departure hurts more than the loss of his fellow key wide receiver Todd Peterson because Swift also made key plays for the Huskers on special teams. His punt return prowess in 2008 made a difference in several games and was underrated in the conference and around the country. Where NU replaces his punt return yards and play making is a variable worth watching in 2009.
KSU fans probably hold Bill Snyder in similar esteem as Husker fans hold Tom Osborne. He’s simply the best coach many of them have seen leading their team and perhaps the best they can reasonably expect they will ever see. Seeing their man return had to be a heart-warming experience. And yet, is it fair to think lightning will strike twice? More specifically, will 2009 be the year that the Wildcats become one of the better teams in the Big 12 North?
The consensus of opinion to this point by college football prognosticators is that Kansas and Nebraska will finish neck and neck at about twenty-third in the country. Sure one set of picks or another can diverge from that substantially, but when averaged together, that’s about where things land. A year ago the twentieth through twenty-fourth team all came from BCS conferences and all finished with 9-4 records. So assuming a similar case in 2009, that would put each Big 12 North school at 9-4.
We here at the Big Red Network have dubbed this time of year the “bad news season” in college football, when outside of recruiting most of the real news items about college football are negative (like suspensions, transfers, or arrests). But at your newsstands and in the blogosphere it could also be called prediction season. And with several predictions on record a consensus begins to form as to how teams will finish.
We spent a lot of time on this site last week discussing the word average. It started when Steve explored where Nebraska may or may not benefit from regressing to the mean in the upcoming season. That lead reader and frequent commenter, caveman99, to ask "What is average for a team with the expectations and talent level of Nebraska?" Intrigued by that question, I dipped a toe in the water and looked at the Huskers' defensive averages in three major categories over the past nine seasons and what they can tell us about expectations for the 2009 season.
Perhaps that started to answer the question of what is average for Nebraska, but it didn't address the larger question--what should be average for Nebraska?--so this weekend I took the plunge and looked nationally over the last five years at average rank in some major statistical categories. (Warning: Spreadsheets ahead.)
5 comments so far
10 days ago
by Darren K. Carlson
Next season, Nebraska's offense is likely to adapt and change based on its personnel. A good stable of running backs, a more athletic quarterback in Zac Lee and less experience at wide receiver makes an emphasis on the run game more likely. The use of more read option from the shotgun spread formation appears to be in the works. With this evolution, fans may get to see the return of runs by players operating out of the slot position (or wingback, as it once was called). It's a strategy that has current comparisons around the country as well as deep seeded Husker roots. Perhaps most importantly, NU has some players on the roster right now that certainly fit the mold of "hybrid" players who could operate as runners out of the slot.
Last July Darren wrote a great piece detailing what he thought it would take defensively for Nebraska to meet expectations under Bo Pelini in year one. The general consensus for the Huskers heading into 2008 seemed to be about eight wins and, based on the stats from 2007, it looked like the Blackshirts would have to give up 14-17 fewer points a game to get there.
They got there in terms of wins but fell a little short on the scoring defense ledger, improving by "only" 9.36 points per game. While it's difficult to forecast national trends, either offensively or defensively, ultimately this is a good sign when you consider that overall the Blackshirts barely got back to being an average Nebraska defense during this decade, yet still improved by four wins in one of the strongest years the Big 12 has ever seen.
ESPN did some investigative reporting around Nebraska’s wrestling program. At issue were the two wrestlers who were dismissed from the team after posing nude on a pornographic web site aimed at gay men. You can find much of the piece here. Surely, there are those who think the piece was fair and those who will see it as slanted and seemed to go out of its way to make NU Athletics look bad. I can’t speak to the motivations of those who compiled the story, but there do seem to be some worthwhile points that were omitted.
The old statistician’s joke goes, “she said I was average, but she was just being mean”. But being average is only a bad thing if you’re aspiring to something greater. At long downtrodden football programs like Indiana or Duke, average would be a step up. Fortunately, there’s a tendency for things to tend toward average. Statisticians call it “regressing to the mean”. In areas of strength, it means you’re fighting gravity. Like when you try to string together over 40 winning seasons or over 35 straight bowl games. But in areas where you’re struggling, it means that improvement isn’t just possible – it’s likely.
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For a game that ultimately has no bearing on any of the most immediate goals for this year’s Nebraska football team—in order, win the Big 12 North, win the Big 12, go to a BCS bowl—I’ve spent an inordinate amount of time thinking about that September 19th trip to Virginia Tech.
As Nebraska’s first big glossy nonconference road game since the unsatisfying “batten down the hatches” trip to USC in 2006, you can expect all of the television promos and mid-week prognostication afforded the increasingly rare meeting of two top programs. But national interest aside, this game is intriguing on a number of levels for the Husker affiliated.
On one hand, this is almost assuredly a better Tech team than the one that won in Lincoln last year. Regardless of the Huskers own improvements, that alone makes winning seem like an unlikely prospect. Another part of me--a hand, I suppose just to keep the clichés consistent—thinks there are a few reasons to believe that, as far as intersectional games go, the Hokies might represent the perfect match-up.
15 comments so far
17 days ago
by Darren K. Carlson
The objects of our lives tell stories. They harbor experiences, provide memories and give us perspective. This is especially true with sports fans. With sincere apologies to Tim O'Brien (one of the finest writers of our time) I offer this look at the things we carry and the funny bit of sports anthropology that comes with them. I have dozens of Husker related items that I have kept over the years, each of them important for its own reason. T-shirts to ticket stubs, blankets to golf balls, they all matter. That's one of the awesome things about sports fanatics - everything matters. But, there are some rare items that really show the depth of my caring. They are the embarrassing things (found or purchased with only the best intentions) that should have discarded. Instead, I'm sick enough to keep them in a special place - the Shelf of Shame.
Special teams maybe aren't the most exciting part of football, but they can be awfully important. Tom Osborne himself pointed out the importance of kick returns. He said if you can return the ball to the 30-yard line or beyond, your chances to score double over a return to the 20 or less. That's why having a kicker that can create touchbacks on kickoffs can be a real competitive advantage over one that continually has his ball returned.
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Published Today
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