Texas Tech May Determine the North Champion
5 comments so far
July 6, 2009 by
A lot of people are pointing to Nebraska’s contest at Kansas on November 14th as being decisive in determining the Big 12 North champion. As those teams seem to be the favorites to win the division, that seems like a reasonable assumption. But when you look over the two teams schedules, it becomes clear that the other seven conference games the teams will play could easily determine who plays in the conference championship game.
Nebraska and Kansas seem sure to be home underdogs against Oklahoma. It’s a lock that Kansas will be a road underdog at Texas. Assuming no upsets, that puts Kansas with two losses and Nebraska with one. A win by NU would afford the Huskers up to two more conference losses elsewhere to stay ahead of Kansas, and if they lost again then at 4-4 Nebraska probably isn’t division champion material.
However, if Kansas beats NU, the teams would both have a pair of losses. If the teams swept the rest of their schedules, then Kansas likely would win the Big 12 North. The same would likely be true if each team lost an additional conference game. But Nebraska could emerge as Big 12 North champion, even with losses to Kansas and Oklahoma, by going unbeaten in their remaining conference schedule if Kansas loses another game.
Which brings us to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders haven’t been an easy out for any Big 12 North school. Last season, the Huskers lost a heartbreaker in overtime in Lubbock. The Jayhawks got embarrassed in Lawrence. If Nebraska can take out Texas Tech in Lincoln while KU falters in Lubbock, it gives Nebraska that much more opportunity to win the North. It also could be a necessary buffer if KU did upset OU or UT. Or it might allow a slip-up in trap games against Baylor or Missouri.
A loss to Texas Tech cost NU appearances in the Big 12 championship game in 2005 and 2008. In fact, no Big 12 North team has ever won the division in a season where they lost to the Red Raiders.
Nebraska’s game at Kansas this year will likely be a big one. But it may be the games these teams play against Texas Tech that ultimately determine the division championship.
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Matt Jul 06 09
I'm honestly more concerned with Baylor and their forecasted rise from also-ran status to actually be bowl eligible this season.
Baylor's supposed eligibility means they're going to steal a game they shouldn't win, and considering Bo's defense has historically had problems with scrambling QBs (not to mention the problems we had with Baylor in Lincoln until their QB came up lame in the second half last season), I shudder to think we would be that stolen game.
Considering Texas Tech is a known entity and a) we took them to OT in Lubbock last year, b) our defense will be better than last year, and c) Tech will likely be worse than last year on both sides of the ball, I'm pretty comfortable that we'll take the Tech game in Lincoln.
Now Kansas taking a game from Tech? Maybenotsomuch...
darren Jul 06 09
Good point about the Bears, Matt. I agree. That stinks of a "trap game". More coming about that later this week. :-)
Though, I still contend that Steve is right to consider TT a realy lynch pin for how the North may shake out, considering their recent history and that they play both NU and KU.
Joel Schmidt Jul 06 09
Yet another great look at a new way to see the schedule. As a fan, I appreciate the heck out of you guys for keeping my brain from turning to mush before Sep. 5th.
I'm with matt, Baylor scares me. They are right in the middle of our schedule like last year, so we shouldn't have many excuses for dropping this one.
We stayed in that Lubbock game because of an offense that was on a clock-eating binge, and our D was always rested. I think we'll still be able to stop their Offense when it counts like we did last time, but the question will be how long we can go. Lee will have to be able to keep drives alive, and our running game will have to be in full swing. Given that week off right after Mizzou, I think our guys will be rested and their heads in the game.
JBLING22 Jul 06 09
Again Great article, Ive always thought Texas Tech was going to be a big game for us, but never realized that KU was playing Texas Tech at Lubbock... That could be huge..
In other news, Does anyone have any information on Eric Martin?? They have said hes finally going to make it into Lincoln, but does anyone know when?? There were also rummors about one of his teammates walking on, again any info??
Seth C Jul 07 09
This is just my personal opinion, but I get the feeling that Leach might start leaning on RB Baron Batch and up-and-coming RB Harrison Jeffers carry a bigger part of the load this year. I'm not sure how well Texas Tech will be able to play on the road, although we might know quite a bit more after the 3rd game where Texas Tech is in Austin. That might tell you guys how worried you should be about the Red Raiders.
Good stuff.