Missing Swift: Who Will Field Punts in 2009?
10 comments so far
June 29, 2009 by
Every pre-season prognostication on the magazine racks right now talks about the lost production that Nebraska must replace at wide receiver. Many of those suddenly missing receptions and yards came from Nate Swift. Swift's departure hurts more than the loss of his fellow key wide receiver Todd Peterson because Swift also made key plays for the Huskers on special teams. His punt return prowess in 2008 made a difference in several games and was underrated in the conference and around the country. Where NU replaces his punt return yards and play making is a variable worth watching in 2009.
By The Numbers
Make no mistake, Swift was a very effective punt returner last season. On 23 returns, Swift netted 296 yards. That's good for nearly 13 yards per return. Those results stacked up nicely, placing Swift 16th nationally and second in the conference in punt return yardage (ahead of Missouri's Jeremy Maclin - 270 yards on 23 attempts, 11.7 average).
Perhaps more valuable than the quantity is the quality of the plays Swift made. Of course, there was the spectacular 88 yard touchdown return that got Nebraska back in to the Virgina Tech game (perfunctory YouTube clip below). But, he also had key returns against Kansas (47 yards) and Kansas State (25 yards). And he got 15 yard and 12 yard returns against Colorado and Clemson.
So, Who Will Step Up?
Good punt returners shift field position and swing the outcomes of games. Swift did that for Nebraska in 2008. Who will do it in 2009? Niles Paul tops the list of early candidates, based on last year's experience fielding both punts and kickoffs. Paul is a spectacular athlete who has the ability to take a ball the distance. See last year's kick off return for a touchdown against San Jose State as evidence, if you must. But, there are some questions. The status of his likely suspension is still unknown. Also, if he's NU's primary kickoff returner next season, will he pull double duty fielding punts as well? Also, Paul wasn't terribly consistent as a punt returner last year. He may have gotten a 19-yard burst versus Baylor, but that is about it. And, he had a costly muff in the bowl game against Clemson. So, improvement is needed.
There are a number of other punt return candidates lurking elsewhere on Husker roster. Tim Marlowe is a name that has been circulated widely as a relative newcomer who could have the speed and elusiveness to make a difference on special teams. Antonio Bell is another young player who has the natural ability to field and return punts, and could be a name to watch. Khiry Cooper - a two sport athlete at NU - is fluid enough to play the role. But, will he have enough experience and repetitions to make a difference?
No doubt, a number of players will get a long audition as punt returners in fall camp. The question remains. Will there be anyone who will make fans forget Swift?
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caveman99 Jun 29 09
I saw enough out of Marlowe and Bell in the Spring Game to make me think that NU will hold serve in this category so to speak, hey Wimbleton is on! I am not sure what Cooper can bring, talk coming out of practice last year seem a bit similar to what Bell produced in raves this Spring. Will the loss of Spring Ball hurt Cooper though? I don't think Paul will be the answer at PR when it is all said an done. Look for the same tandem of Dennard and Paul on KR I would think, they seemed to click back there last year.
HuskerFaithful1 Jun 29 09
What a great article Darren! I really enjoyed this one (the video gave me goosebumps.) On that note.
I believe that we will get even better on special teams punt/kick returns. As far as the reception portion of replacing Swift I have some doubts...
With the departure of Swift and Peterson we have great talent that will get an opportunity to show what they can do. The players you mentioned above as possible replacements are the reason why they should improve. Remember all the posts about who would step up with the departure of Purify and Nunn? A lot of people were saying that Swift would be the guy because Swift and Nunn were so similar and who knew who would replace the mighty Purify. Swift stepped up and not only fared better than Nunn but was very comparable to Purify. I won't say he was better than Purify because who knows what Purify would have done with two more years at Nebraska. With all that being said, here are some statistics provided by ESPN which will show why Swifts numbers can be duplicated, but probably not in 2009.
*Let me note that I did not including TE or RB in these stats even though these 2 positions can and did get plenty of the total reception yards during these years. I did this so that we can just look at the WR position.
Year/Rec/Yds/Avg
Terrence Nunn
2004/16/218/13.6
2005/42/495/11.5
2006/43/597/14.2
2007/35/452/12.9
Maurice Purify
2006/34/630/18.5
2007/57/814/14.3
Todd Peterson:
2005/9/150/16.7
2006/19/307/16.2
2007/18/359/19.9
2008/62/786/12.7
Nate Swift:
2005/45/641/14.2
2006/22/374/17
2007/36/520/14.4
2008/63/941/14.9
Now let us compare these:
Between 2004 and 2008, era of Bill Callahan, recruiting started getting better and NU switched their offensive style. All four of these receivers got there chance to develop around the same time frame. All of these players improved their numbers each year(with the exception to Nunn in 2007 with Purify getting a majority of the catches but you can see that the ball was distributed fairly evenly between both Swift and Nunn and that they had fairly even stats that year.)
The problem now isn't who will fill the shoes of Nunn and Purify, but of Swift and Peterson. Swift was on par with Nunn in 2007 but who was on pair with Swift or Peterson in 2008? Swift showed in 2007 that he had the capability of stepping it up after both Purify and Nunn would leave. And in fact Swift did fill some great shoes making shoes of his own. Peterson showed what kind of athlete he was by achieving way more than what people imagined he would do. So who is left to look at with known stats:
Menelik Holt(SR)
2007/4/97/24.3
2008/30/355/11.8
Niles Paul(JR)
2007/1/6/6
2008/23/214/9.3
Curenski Gilleylen(SO)
2008/2/11/5.5
Chris Brooks(SR)
2007/1/4/4
2008/2/27/13.5
I just don't see a "Swift" receiver in the wings. The only names that really keep coming up over and over are Niles Paul or Menelik Holt. Both have the capability and athleticism do well but no name just pops out as a clear favorite. Younger players than these two seem to have just as much of a chance.
There is no doubt that at least two receivers will get some big number boosts to there stats for 2009 but my guess would be more in the Todd Peterson range in the mid six to seven-hundreds. All receivers in 2009 should be on equal ground and should get fairly equal touches.
My guess will be that the TE position will be the break out position this year for receptions. Helu or Castille have just as much of a chance as anyone to have fantastic receiving numbers in 2009. As far as punt and kick returns I would go with Niles Paul just because he seems the obvious replacement and can be just as explosive as Swift. If I had to rate my choices in this extremely early daze of confusion it would go like this:
1. Paul
2. Gilleylen
3. Bell
4. Kinnie
5. Cooper
So go ahead and tell me I am way off base on this. If it strikes up some good points and adds onto Darren's great article/question then I can handle it.
the Gooch Jun 29 09
Couldn't Prince Amukamara return kicks?
Or Marcus Mendoza?
caveman99 Jun 29 09
HuskerFaithful1,
Interesting numbers you put up there. I know you left out the IB and TE numbers, but I think they may be relevent in this discussion. I would be interested to see the total distribution of passes from 2006, 2007, and 2008. I will look it up, but I am wondering if the number of completions is about equal each year. We know that Lucky caught over 70 balls in 2007, McNeil set the TE record at NU for completions last season with 32, the top 2 receivers in 2008 out did any top duo from the previous years. I think this will be telling to see how Watson massages the Offense this year due to the lack of experience at WR. I agree with you that TE will get a bunch more catches, a lot of 2 TE sets I think are a good bet, and the IB's should also get a bunch. Will we see a Half Back emerge this year, Reed could be playmaker, to take catches? On top of all of this is the potential for renewed focus on the running game. NU put up 160+ rushing yards per game out of 450 total per game in 2008. Could we see 200 rushing yards per game in 2009, if so then the number of receptions should decrease by default assuming NU puts up a similar per game Total O number of 450. Point is I am not sure we need 60 catch WR's, Watson will find away to make up for that production using the other strengths of the offense.
Bill in Iowa Jun 29 09
Do we already have the next Maurice Purify?
Brandon Kinnie joins the Nebraska program after two seasons at Fort Scott Community College in Kansas. The 6-3, 215-pounder will add a big, physical player to the Nebraska receiving corps. Kinnie caught 62 passes for 845 yards and 10 touchdowns, and also returned two kickoffs for 79 yards for Coach Jeff Sims.
Kinnie is ranked among the top 75 overall junior-college prospects in the country by both SuperPrep and Rivals.com.
I realize the WR position is a big question mark, but I am confident that with this group of receivers we have guys who have been in the program long enough they are ready to step up and make their mark (Holt, Paul, Gilleylen, Henry, Brooks) AND we also have a group of talented incoming kids who are ready to compete for a job (Kinnie, Mendoza, KC Highland, Cooper, Bell). Throw in a strong tight end position and passes out of the backfield to take some pressure off and I really think we are going to be fine. It's just a question who really steps up to become "the guy". We have a number of candidates who I think could become that go to guy.
Sean in Kearney Jun 29 09
The Gooch mentioned it above but, what about marcus mendoza? The kids got hands and he could fire the afterburners and torch people down the sideline.
HuskerFaithful1 Jun 29 09
Gooch and Sean:
You are both right. We do have deep talent and I am sure that both would do great as returners. I know who ever is back there will be lighting up when they get their chance.
Caveman99:
You mentioned the two tight-end sets and I think your right on target. The TE group are arguably the best option right now. I even read somewhere here on BRN (can't remember where exactly but I know I read it) that we may even use a three TE set. That's how deep the talent is at TE. As far as going back to a more run oriented form of west coast (insert cough here) or even to a Wing formation (bigger cough) think of this...More teams are adjusting there defenses to counter the spread offense which sets the run game up nicely.
darren Jun 29 09
Sean/Gooch - good questions and candidates. Both Mendoza and Amukamara have the explosiveness and experience (at least at the HS level) to take the ball to the house.
There are proabably 6-8 candidates on the roster who could play the role. It really is a matter of the team being commited to it and blocking to give them opportuniies.
Here's what set Swift apart - he was consistent and dependable. Job one, field the dang ball... and he did that very well. He also never lost yardage on returns. Catch it...then get up field. Explosiveness is the luxury. Consistency must come as a standard feature.
caveman99 Jun 30 09
Darren,
While I agree that consistency is the #1 priority for a Returner, I really think one thing that hurt the teams during the Callahan era was his reluctance to put someone back there that could do damage and not just be a sure catch. Special Teams are 1/3 of the game, you have to make hey whenever you can. You can't just afford to fair catch all of the time, you need to try and change field position. Make what the Blackshirts just did really hurt the opponent. Groce was one of many of pretty good returners in years past. Seemed like NU would be 2-3 return TD's a year until Callahan came. We saw some of that last year, I think it can be as good and in fact even better with some of the candidates being thrown out there.
Grant Jul 01 09
I wouldn't rule out Dennard either