The Importance of Nebraska's First Three Games
18 comments so far
August 4, 2008 by
Any person who has read this site for very long knows that the Big Red Network staff is pretty intrigued with the relative importance of games and the upcoming Nebraska schedule. We have evaluated it many times. Making this such a common topic creates a certain amount of debate for me when I talk with friends and family. A few weeks ago, my brother-in-law made a compelling argument that NU's first three games are really the most important ones on the schedule. While considering his point of view and evaluating those first three opponents a few other ideas came to mind as well. Those first three games really matter a lot.
Momentum and Bowl Eligibility
Right out of the gate, NU opens with Western Michigan, San Jose State and New Mexico State, all in Lincoln. Those aren't brand names that inspire much fear or awe, especially as home games. So, I tend to discount them. My brother-in-law's argument for the first three games being the most important was simply this: coming off a season where NU failed to reach a bowl, every win matters. So, the Huskers need to win the most winnable games. These first three clearly qualify. If NU does NOTHING else this year, winning six games (these three plus Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State seem the most likely at first glance) then they will have secured a post season birth and improved over last year. That makes total sense.
Another important point is that starting 3-0 would ensure the Huskers some momentum or at least some confidence as they head in to their next very tough stretch, facing Virginia Tech, Missouri and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. Worse, losing one of those games would be very tough blow to a team that has new coaches and players who displayed a confidence problem in 2007. Now I think winning those first three appears to mean quite a bit.
Cream Puffs or Early Tests?
Next, let’s evaluate the prospect of the Huskers actually dropping one of those first three games. It's a nightmare scenario for some. Just remember, NU was a missed Ball State field goal away from dropping a home game to a MAC school last year [shudder].
Western Michigan could field a tough ball club in 2008. The Broncos have quietly been getting better with a winning record overall and the MAC conference over the last three years. They qualified for a bowl in 2006. They fell to 5-7 last year due to a tough non-conference schedule and inconsistency late in the year. Though, they beat Iowa. Here's the thing about 2007, they return nearly all of their key players. They run the spread offense (more on that later) and they will come to Lincoln to fight for respect. Some already smell a trap game. Bo had better have the Huskers ready to rock.
San Jose State is no slouch either. The Spartans went to a bowl just two years ago. And, although they finished 5-7 last year, they had non-BCS darling Hawaii on the ropes only to lose in overtime. Also, raise your hand if you knew former Arizona coach Dick Tomey was the Spartans' current head coach. (Okay, put your hands down now. Liars.) Didn't Tomey's club beat NU in the 1998 Holiday Bowl. Just saying...they aren't a walk through, folks.
Okay, granted New Mexico State kind of sucks. Only Lou Holtz could portray the Aggies as a scary opponent. They were 4-9 (1-7 in the WAC) last year with four ugly losses and not many quality wins. They played some teams tough (Fresno State, Nevada) but weren't a good squad. Of course, most of what I just said was true for NU in 2007 too.
Scheme Previews
The Huskers first three opponents provide some early looks at schemes that will re-occur during conference play. Western Michigan runs the spread. At first glance it looks similar to what Missouri and some other schools might like to do. It could give both the team and fans a preview of coming attractions. San Jose State isn't exactly a spread team. But they ran some aspects of this A-11 offense that is generating a buzz. That's not the spread. It's the spread on meth. And at New Mexico State, Hal Mumme runs much of the same stuff that his amigo Mike Leach does at Texas Tech. They are going to throw, and throw, and throw some more...and in much the same way the Red Raiders do.
You have to think that the Husker coaches and players stand to benefit in their preparation for two of the most difficult conference games (Missouri and Texas Tech) by preparing for and playing against teams that run similar things with arguably less talent. There is no teacher like experience. Success in these early contests should only make NU's defense more comfortable and confident while facing similar stuff later in the year. That may be the biggest reason to watch those games carefully and weigh them heavily in evaluating the overall schedule.
Did you enjoy this article?
Get Husker news by email
Follow us on Twitter
Related Stories: Scheduling
Post a comment
NURealist Aug 04 08
I think we'll probably go 1 and 2 in the first three games, maybe 2 and 1 if things break right. We're still not a very solid team and Bo has never been a head coach before.
extrapoint Aug 04 08
Bo is a winner. I look for a fired up defense that will tear QB's heads off.
AustinHusker Aug 04 08
Two quick hitters, NURealist, care to put any $$ on that. Come one you must be a Mizz fan or something. That or you are high coming off the weekend. I could coach them to 3 wins and those three teams arent even close to solid team.
More importantly, most people believe you improve the most between the first and second games. If this is true then I too believe the first 3 games are the most important. If we pull another Ball State type of game it might foreshadow what is to come. However if we blow out each of these by 40 points, and we should be capable of that, we might have a fighting chance at 8-5 or something along those lines.
I was never a BC fan but his recruiting classes, at least by the pundits, where not San Jose type classes.
It better be 3-0.
Cant wait.
extrapoint Aug 04 08
The defense has plenty of talent. They quit on Cosgrove last season from a lack of faith in him. They'll rip heads off this season going into a revenge match against CU, destroying them and costing Dan Hawkins his job.
Brandon Aug 04 08
In College Football A.A.S. (After Appalachian State), it's not safe to assume a win against anybody, but I'm going to tempt the gods and assume wins against the teams with four letter abbreviations, SJSU and NMSU. (In College Football B.A.S. this was always a safe assumption. Four letters and you're not winning.)
But that W. Michigan game is going to be the real interesting one. It's the first game which makes it difficult to assess by nature but the other component is that the Broncos are not just a good mid-major team, they're a good VETERAN mid-major team and that's the sort of squad that can win on the road.
There's going to be a lot of emotion for that game and if Nebraska can pounce early it should spell curtains for WMU. There's also a lot of pressure on NU, though. Every one is willing to preach patience before any games have been played but could you imagine the response, both state and nation-wide, if Pelini lost his first game at the helm?
For that reason, if WMU can get a couple big plays early, if it's tight at halftime, the game becomes a toss-up in my mind.
GoBigRed Aug 04 08
Even if we win the first three, we'll probably wind up 5-7 again, with wins vs. Baylor and Iowa State. The Big 12 is brutal this year, and I hate to say it, but CU is much improved and will likely beat us again.
extrapoint Aug 04 08
With the exception of Oklahoma, Bo's team will be taking names and kicking #$*!!
CU's Hawkins is on the edge of the hot seat with two miserable losing seasons. A lot of the Buff faithful are becoming weary of his Hawkism Ghandi quotes and want to see something happen on the field instead of talk in the press.
I see the pressure getting to Hawkins and a blowout in Lincoln against an overmatched Buff team. 70-3, Huskerstyle....
Bill in Iowa Aug 04 08
Yes, W. Michigan scares me a bit against an inexperienced retooled Husker defense. But I feel really good about our 12th man...it will be rockin. And even if our defense is sub par and it becomes a MAC styled offensive shootout, I think our offense should be able to out-score their offense.
2002SJSU Aug 04 08
It's Dick Tomey, Jim Tomey is a basketball coach at SDSU.
Dick Tomey's recruiting has improved the quality and character of the SJSU team. I don't expect we will beat Nebraska in Lincoln, but don't expect a cream puff either. In the last 2 seasons we took Hawaii down to the wire and Boise into overtime. Of course those games were at home, where we have only lost those 2 games in the past 2 seasons. Not bad for a state school that was close to getting rid of football before Dick Tomey was hired.
Our biggest problem is depth. We just can't keep up the numbers with the big programs. Last year we lost our #1 and #2 running backs in the 1st game...and still scared the crap out of Hawaii, albeit a highly over-rated team.
Josh Aug 04 08
LOCK IT UP!!!!!!!!!!!
Extrapoint Aug 04 08
I have no doubts. The arrival of Pelini will transform the Huskers into the most feared team in the Big 12.
Showing no mercy to a hapless Buff team at the game of the season will serve notice, bring your A game or be humilated.
darren Aug 04 08
2002SJSU - My bad! So amended. Dang it, just when I thought I actually knew something fairly cool...I go and get the name wrong. Sorry.
Kelly Aug 04 08
Just remember what everyone in the Big Red Nation was saying at this time last year; we were all predicting a huge season for the Huskers, then the wheels quickly fell off.
The talent that made us all think the Huskers would be champions last year still exists on this squad. They weren't as bad as their 5-7 record made them look. There is tremendous upside for this year's team.
The new coaching staff will have huge success early.... look for the Big Red to go 4-0.
tom Aug 04 08
Take it from me. Never TRY to be cool. It never works out.
Greg Morrow Aug 04 08
Last years edition of the Cornhuskers, reminds me of Arizona in '02, with John Mackovic. Well, without that type of overt mutiny. What Nebraska players went through though, is what I call a "disaffectation." Coping with an intolerable situation, while utterly denying it's existence.
I think (hope) that's gone, now.
The description of the first 3 opponents reminds me of one of the many reasons I like college football, so much! The offenses are as varied as the imagination will allow.
I think pregame hand wringing by the DC, with that tension trickling down to the players is gone, (I hope) too.
Lets get physical, baby!
I write this without reading anything about Kevin Dixon, yet. But, why spoil my mood?
I poke this out, but my main point is this situation is dramatically different from how the team started out against the lessers, for each of the last 4 seasons. When the team was trying to find out if the offense even worked, or, if the quarterback would be able to work it.
Consistency. To reach Nebraska's level of consistency calls for a return of the "stoics," made famous by Osborne. Something approaching that, is coming soon.
2002SJSU Aug 04 08
No worries Darren, people at SJSU are kind of used to it. We have had TV sportscasters call us San Diego State during games, and even a ref at one of our home games.
I am excited for your team's turnaround. Back in 1990 we had president of our university kill our sports programs and we haven't been a contender in football until Bill Walsh pretty much hand-picked Dick Tomey for the job. That move saved our program from extinction. There was a large movement to abandon football after so many years of mediocrity. So our die-hard fan base (all 500 of us...) know how important having the right coaching staff is for the program. Good luck in your coming season...except for that little upset during your 2nd game. 11-1 is still a good record.
Jason Aug 05 08
Some Western Michigan fans are discussing the NU game here.
Renny Aug 05 08
The WM game is very interesting to me. MAC teams play a pretty good brand of football. I've had some exposure in the past to Bowling Green and was really impressed by what they had to offer.
In my opinion...here is the difference. Big time BCS schools have solid 2-deeps. You hear Bo Pelini talk about building the 2-deep often and rotating in and out. We didn't have that last year....I hope we have it this year. While I can't speak for WM, it seems as though most mid-majors have solid 1-deep but are very limited after that so that that when a player goes down, it hurts. Should be fun to watch though -- it can't come soon enough!