Chaos Theory
13 comments so far
February 29, 2008 by
Chaos theory tells us the flutter of a butterfly’s wings in one part of the world could cause a Hurricane a thousand miles away. That is, the cumulative effect of many small tipping points can ultimately be the difference between a mild storm off the coast and a massive event. Similarly, we can view the cumulative effect of any number of smaller events related to Nebraska football as being the difference between wins and losses, trophies and atrophy.
Caught in the Perfect Storm
Look at the string of events that surrounded Frank Solich’s tenure as Nebraska’s head coach. Given the controversy to this day over his termination, it can certainly be said that his firing was no slam dunk. Everything had to go just right, or more precisely, exactly wrong for the Huskers to fire a coach that had won an average of nearly ten games a year.
It started before the 1998 season when Ahman Green decided to jump to the NFL after his junior season, which happened to be the best season by a Husker running back since Mike Rozier’s Heisman campaign. NU was hit hard with injuries that season, including losing starting quarterback Bobby Newcombe and starting running back DeAngelo Evans to season-ending injuries. The Huskers saw a 7-year home winning streak come to an end when they were forced to start walk-on Monte Christo at quarterback against Texas. A non-call on a horrible face mask penalty against Kansas State robbed the Huskers of a chance to win a game against the Wildcats. None of the Huskers four losses were by more than a touchdown. Each could have turned on a single play. What could well have been a “business as usual� 11-2 season instead became a 9-4 campaign that was the Huskers worst season in terms of wins and losses since 1968. That may have contributed to a fairly weak recruiting class that aside from Ryon Bingham, Jammal Lord, and Toniu Fonoti, was mostly disappointing. That class may have been helped if Carl Crawford hadn’t chosen to play baseball.
While the 1999 season was mostly high points, the visit to Austin that year included three lost fumbles by the Huskers and a holding non-call on a Texas touchdown that cost NU in a 24-20 loss. That game cost a great Nebraska squad a shot at the national championship. Then after the season, long-time defensive coordinator Charlie McBride retired. The 2000 season saw the Huskers as a preseason #1 but losing their division when they lost by a point in Manhattan. The normally solid Josh Brown missed a chip shot 28-yard field goal in the contest that otherwise would have given NU a chance to avenge their only loss against the Sooners in the Big 12 championship game and perhaps get back into the BCS title game.
What the 2001 season lacked in close calls it made up for with odd circumstance. The toppling of top programs late in the season put the Huskers in the Rose Bowl after an embarrasing season-ending loss to Colorado. Nebraska faced a Miami team as talented as any college football has ever seen. So after a month of the national media shouting how unworthy NU was of a title shot, the Huskers went out and got embarrassed for the second game in a row to turn a strong season into a painful one. The psyche damage may well have contributed to the 2002 campaign.
The 2002 bloodbath of a season was easily Solich’s undoing. The ugly loss at Penn State might well have caused a hangover that contributed to the Iowa State debacle. The narrow loss at Stillwater could have turned on a single play and the loss to #7 Texas included a bad snap that lead to a missed field goal that could have tied the game and also may have contributed to Jammal Lord’s late game-ending interception. Even the Ole Miss game included a nonsense fake punt that fullback Judd Davies audibled to when he should not have. The Huskers might easily have picked up two or three wins that year on just a few plays and might have finished 9-5 or even 10-4. But everything seemingly broke wrong and Solich’s fate was all but sealed. More immediately, it ended the tenure of a number of assistants at Nebraska and lead to the hiring of defensive coordinator Bo Pelini.
The 2003 season lacked the close calls that would have changed the record much. Bad losses to Missouri, Texas, and Kansas State were considered signs that Nebraska was gravitating to mediocrity. They became the final tipping points that ended Solich’s run as Nebraska’s head coach.
Winds of Change
But in fact, it was that season that may ultimately prove the program’s salvation. Bo Pelini’s defense had a strong year and could easily be credited with producing the wins over Oklahoma State, Penn State, and Michigan State (not to mention a number of other dominant performances). Pelini earned a place in the hearts of the Husker faithful that has bought him goodwill throughout the state.
Bill Callahan may have suffered his own tipping points, including close losses to Southern Miss, Iowa State, and Colorado that kept Nebraska from going bowling in 2004. A LeKevin Smith fumble against Texas Tech kept NU from winning the Big 12 North in 2005 and a “pick six� interception against Oklahoma cost Callahan's team a chance for a signature win that year. The Terrence Nunn fumble cost the Huskers a signature win over Texas in 2006. Then there were late recruiting defections like quarterback Josh Freeman and defensive end Rulon Davis that could have hurt the Huskers. The biggest tipping point ironically may have been Kevin Cosgrove’s decision to remain with the team when he might otherwise have left to join the Minnesota Vikings. That might have spared Nebraska any number of horrible losses in 2007.
Lucky Breaks
In Bo Pelini’s short time as Nebraska’s head coach things certainly have broken his way. Where Solich lost Ahman Green to the pros, Pelini kept Marlon Lucky who’s 1743 all-purpose yards in 2007 rank behind only Green, Rozier, Lawrence Phillips and Johnny Rodgers as the best ever in a season by a Nebraska player. He retained recruits like running back Collins Okafor, cornerback David Whitmore, linebackers Sean Fisher and Will Compton, and defensive end Josh Williams. He added some important pieces like defensive tackle Quentin Toailoa, quarterback Kody Spano, safety P.J. Smith, and a fleet of wide receivers. He landed an early commitment for 2009 from standout lineman Cole Pensick. He managed to retain offensive coordinator Shawn Watson despite a courtship with Alabama just before signing day, which is known for paying big dollars to coaches. He lured recruiting dynamo Tim Beck from a division opponent and re-teamed with assistants Marvin Sanders and Ron Brown. He even earned a national championship ring in the heart of the recruiting season to boost both his recruiting resume and those of the young assistants that followed him from LSU.
There are any number of things that can happen big and small in the coming years to push Pelini and Nebraska toward success or failure. But after the “chaos� that preceded him in Lincoln, there has been a series of good breaks that may end up helping the program immensely. Maybe the great ones make their own luck. Pelini was recently quoted as saying, “Everything counts, you can't let one part of your life slip and expect to make up for it later in the day.� But in any case things have gone well for Pelini in the early going and some of these seemingly trivial events may ultimately catapult the Huskers forward in the years to come.
Did you enjoy this article?
Get Husker news by email
Follow us on Twitter
Related Stories: Nebraska
Post a comment
Jason Feb 29 08
Folks at the 'Pedia are discussing this article over here.
Bill Mellas Feb 29 08
In your article you seem to make excuses for every Nebraska loss - a missed holding penalty, a missed face-mask call, etc. Don't you think there were others missed calls during those same games that went Nebraska's way? If you really want to see some unusual calls by officials, watch a home game for USC, that will make you feel better.
Steve Feb 29 08
Bill,
Most reasonable people would agree that there's an element of chance in sports. Otherwise, why would we watch a USC/Stanford game?
I'm not suggesting that breaks haven't gone Nebraska's way (see the flea-kicker that saved Nebraska's national championship season in 1997), only that the fickle finger of fate seemed to allow *just enough* wrong to happen to cost Frank Solich his job. Maybe we saw plenty for Callahan to be fired, but then again who knows how close Kevin Cosgrove came to leaving the team and who knows how well another defensive coordinator would have performed? (Most Husker fans believe most any other coordinator would have fared a LOT better).
The fact is, it's not always huge margins that separates winners from losers. It's often just a handful of critical moments that send a team down one path or another. Let's imagine that Reggie Bush was caught red-handed accepting illegal gifts as while still playing for Southern Cal and was immediately ruled ineligible or kicked off the team. How many games might have turned out differently without Bush on the team? And how easily might all of his dealings come to light as they were happening (versus after he left USC)? What if a coach had found out before the press without reporting it? Could it have brought heavy sanctions against the USC program? THEN, where would the Trojans be?
Bo Pelini hasn't had much time in Lincoln, and it wouldn't appear a lot of meaningful things have happened yet. But when we realize how easily our fates can change, Husker fans can feel very greatful for the early breaks that have gone his way. Time will tell if they truly matter in the end, but after the worst season that many Husker fans have EVER witnessed, we'll take every crumb of good fortune we can get.
cvldfg Feb 29 08
Sometimes things are simpler than they appear.
Hiring a man like BO, I believe, fixes almost all of those fluky bounces that didn't go our way when BC was here, excluding injuries.
BO is a "pay attention to the small details" kind of guy. BC and Cosgrove seemed more like the shoot first ask questions later kind of coaches.
Bad decisions by Frank, I believe, were because he wasn't ready for EVERYTHING that is HUSKER FOOTBALL and being the Head Coach as well.
While I can't prove my belief of Karma, I can tell you it exists. And we paid our debt to her after the Solich firing with BC and SP for four years. I stick to my original projection of 9 or 10 wins this year. And "IF", Karma has forgiven us or is looking the other way, maybe 11 wins.
cvldfg Feb 29 08
BTW Steve,
Great article. You were able to put a lot of details and examples to explain your story. I agree with Bill that every team, in every sport has moments that alter the course of history. But, I believe, that your story was just a way to point out the HUSKERS situation and not to make excuses for the situation.
donfl Feb 29 08
Not to continue to be a Solich basher, but you failed to mention that the reason NE lost those close games were he became infatuated with a QB run offense. Good teams overcome these setbacks. Hell in the 1993 Nat championship game we were flagged for two special team penalties on touchdown runs that even the announcers were dumbfounded about, yet had we converted a field goal in the end we would have won. Frank never realized that the glue that held us together in those games was C Mac's defense, what a disaster when he hired Craig Bowle, DC at Rice? and Duke? c'mon! Pelini took these same kids and made them into terrors. Along comes KC and he makes Bowle look like genius. Nuff said TO did the right thing to bring BO back. Huskers will rise to the top maybe not this year but like all the nations fans I know its not far down the road
James Moore Feb 29 08
I had honestly taken the EXACT same line of thought reagarding the late 1990's myself for some time now. But two games really stick out that were selected. The 1999 loss down in Austin and the 2005 home loss to Texas Tech for 2 opposite but strategically different reasons. 1999 was Crouch's sophmore year and the last of the legacy from the "great" and " physically overpowering" teams of the 60-3 run (although they weren't in that stretch). Physically and mentally they were the last real cut from that cloth. A win there prevented by frustrating fumbles inside the Texas 5 and a probable national championship season was lost along with the very beginnings in the awareness that MAYBE we could be beaten by conference teams. (9-4 the year before, remember when we tasted 4 losses for the first time?). . .
Momentum from the 1990's dominanting run was lost and Nebraska dropped from a year-in-year-out dominating, imposing, national title contender to a very, very, good team up to the Rose Bowl loss to Miami (remind anyone of the late 80's early 90's run-ins down in the Orange Bowl with the Hurricanes?). 1999 was the best Crouch team I thought by far and they were a dominating bunch in the trenches. I felt 1999 was the pivotal year in the Solich years. We set an NCAA record that year for lost fumbles (Alexander with pitches). After 1999 Solich closed up and got conservative. He became careful and the triple-option was called less. 1999 in Austin was a win to SUSTAIN the momentum that was ultimately lost slowly, beginning that day. Honestly from 1993-1999 was there one Husker fan who REALLY thought that we would lose? Once? To anybody? I didn't. . .
LaKevin Smith's fumble on a just-picked INT gave Tech a chance to get the ball back and throw the game-winning TD pass. A win there (I beleive but can't recall with absolute certainty) would have had us 6-1 after the 5 game opening stretch at home to grow. That win could've been confidence boost for that team looking for an identity under Callahan and maybe they sneak out with 9 or 10 and hit the Cotton instead of the Alamo Bowl. Always felt the LaKevin Smith fumble was the most pivotal play of the Callahan era (pre-76 points and turning in of Blackshirts). That could've been a big win early on. 2005 Texas Tech was a chance to RESTORE and BUILD MOMENTUM. . .
Greg Morrow Feb 29 08
How 'bout "Kinetic Theory", as the antidote to "Chaos Theory"?
Inner heat causing molecules to collide violently.
Dr. Tom, while not appearing "hot," had the knack for facilitating utmost effort (collisions) from his players. Like Tennessee's coach Fulmer said after the '98 Orange Bowl pounding, "Tom's a kind man, I think". Players who contributed, tended to reach their athletic potential, under Osborne and his staff's guidance. Pro scouts pointed that out, sometimes, about Nebraska players in the past, unfairly implying that's as good as the player will get. Which, as a Nebraska fan, is all I really care about. When Nebraska players would be drafted high didn't make it for long, I was happy that they at least got rewarded for being great Nebraska players.
Anyway, that's the type of "heat" Pelini, or his successor, will have to generate from Nebraska players, to crack the top 10 someday.
When your players aren't in concert with each other, concentrating their punch at the point of attack, the ball just doesn't bounce your way, as much. That said, I think Frank would still be the coach, if he could have recruited the Tommies, Erics and Ahmans who tended to spark their teammates to accomplish that last little extra.
ze bop Mar 01 08
those were the good old days, back b 4 '01 when we lost by less than a TD if we ever lost at all.
07 never happened, right? i mean i dont remember it...acute amnesia i guess.
but, we have the best and baddest coach now in the country, i am not worried, Big Red will live again! woohoo!
OUT! :)
DT Mar 03 08
I'm getting in a little late here (my computer crashed last week and this is the first chance I've had to get online) but if it's not too late, I'd like to add my take.
This was a good little trip down memory lane. It's ironic, I was just thinking recently about these types of "little details" and (since you mention the Newcombe injury) the thought occured to me...remember in '03 when Lord was the QB and couldn't hit the broad side of the barn, but everyone was saying that Dailey was more of a passer and less of a runner and how that would really play to the strength of the offense the following year because Cotton favored more of a balanced attack...well I got to thinking--and this is gonna sound like your typical Solich bash-job, but it's really not because it's just a fact--Solich had his chance to make his mark and step out of the shadow of TO and feature a more balanced offense from the get-go. I remember Newcombe's first days as a QB in those early '98 games and that guy could throw the ball...significantly better than Crouch at least. But after he got hurt, we sort of resorted back to the old power option game. Then the following season, Newcombe was back and named the starter and I was all for that (I loved Bobby Newcombe)...it seemed that he gave a new dimension to the offense that would allow us to sort of evolve as he grew into his role. Well, we all know how that ended up turning out...and this isn't at all intended to be a dis on the great career that Eric Crouch had as a Cornhusker, but more of a reflection on how (with Newcombe) we seemed to have a guy that had the tools to give us a new direction and at the same time give Frank an identity. But he ended up going with the guy who was more of the "tried and true" Nebraska Way sort...passing skills being kind of secondary to the ability to run the option. Then, by the time we were down to Ibacks like Dahrran Diedrick and Thunder Collins, the "triple option" just became this single-wing, one-man-circus known as the Eric Crouch show.
Maybe the last 10 years has clouded my memory...and obviously Joe Dailey turned out to be a horrible passer, so this is all possibly a little misguided (notwithstanding any mention of Cotton's future success as and OC and the aforementioned Craig Bohl experience)...but I just wanted to stress how much I totally agreed with the sentiment of this, along with the many quality comments that had me looking back on many "little details" of the past decade. But I think that one I mentioned was huge...In Bobby Newcombe, Frank had a golden opportunity to diversify the offense very early on, yet he chose the comfort zone of TO's shadow--so in my mind, forever in TO's shadow shall Frank remain.
Like I said, it's been a few days and I don't expect to generate much discussion at this point...but I just thought I'd throw that out there to see what if any response it'd bring. I've been chewing this over for a bit now and just wanted to throw it in.
DT Mar 03 08
Sorry for the double post...I lost the handle on this crappy hotel computer room computer!
But one last little note...on the always sore subject of the Craig Bohl years: In the summer of 2000, I was at an event with a friend from my UNL days...a former Husker LB who played under both Steele and Bohl as his position coaches at NU. He had very little respect for Bohl (and likewise the decision to hire him to replace McBride) and he related how the first year that Bohl went to a bowl game, he brought along his golf clubs...
I know, just another one of those infamous tales of "I know an insider who told me this" and blah, blah, blah...but in any event I just had to toss in how I always prided myself as being pretty hip to the whole Bohl fiasco before it even happened!
But I also must add that it seems more like the Craig Bohl years turned out to be the salad days after the season just past!
Steve Mar 04 08
DT,
I'm with you on Newcombe, he's one of the most underappreciated Huskers in memory. I'm not sure how drastically the offense might have changed with him staying at quarterback.
Instead, I suspect it would have been more like the difference between Frazier and Berringer. You call more runs with Frazier in the game and more passes with Berringer in the game, but fundamentally the offense doesn't really change. I don't think they would have changed who they recruited at quarterback either, so while three years of Newcombe at quarterback might have been more balanced than those same years with Crouch, the years that followed (Crouch/Lord) would likely have looked similar to what we saw.
Michael Jan 17 09
I enjoyed the article, the only thing i would say was omitted is that what really happen to
Solich is that he let the players run and ruin his program. When the boys from Millard North refused to support Bobby Newcombe for their boy "Crouch", it signal the end of Nebraska being a national power. It was the unique blend of people from all over the country and the great humble kids from Nebraska that made the program great. You could say the man was never greater than the mission at Nebraska, but in this case it became so. Recruiting from outside Nebraska fell way off and so in turn the program did. Callahan and Petersen, went too far to try to capture national recruits, the neglected the home state and traditions. Bo Pelini is a man of immense backbone and he will right the ship and coach Osborne being the AD he has an ally. The Osborne model is being used at colleges all over the country, blending players for a common cause greater than themselves. I live in Ohio and Tressel uses the same style and recruiting as Osborne.