The Rosy Scenario
4 comments so far
December 10, 2007 by
When politicians make forecasts for the purposes of budgeting, they often rely on the most optimistic growth scenarios for the economy, which allow them to say there will be more money coming in from taxes for spending programs and yet tax rates won’t need to be increased. It’s probably not the most realistic outlook, but it sure feels good at the time.
You can look at the statistics for Bo Pelini over the past five years and see his teams have finished in the top fifteen nationally in total defense. You can look at Nebraska over the past two years and see the Huskers have finished in the top fifteen in total offense. If the Huskers could put those two things together they’d have a great team. In the last nine seasons twenty-three teams have managed the feat (that’s fewer than three a year) and they’ve gone a combined 248-37 (an 87% win percentage). That translates to about 11-2. Not surprisingly, the only Husker team in the last nine seasons that finished near the top of the rankings in total offense and total defense was the 2001 squad that went 11-1 in the regular season.
The Huskers lose their offensive MVP in Maurice Purify, and while nine touchdowns might not seem irreplaceable, he was a match-up nightmare for opponents that the Huskers don’t appear to have for next year. It’s anybody’s guess at this point whether Marlon Lucky will be back next year. The play of Joe Ganz was encouraging but three games might be too few to really know what he’ll look like next season. The offensive line should be better with youngsters like Mike Smith, Jaivorio Burkes, and D.J. Jones coming along behind a number of returning veterans. But whether or not the Huskers will remain a top fifteen offensive unit remains to be seen, especially when they may need to adapt to a new playbook.
Defensively, the Huskers are sure to be better on the defensive line with everyone back along with some newcomers. They lose four senior linebackers including defensive MVP Steve Octavien and three senior cornerbacks. It’s hard to imagine Nebraska won’t be substantially better than 112th in total defense, but can they climb 100 spots in the rankings in one season? That would seem like an awfully tall order. Much of it may depend on the staff’s ability to find recruits that can step in immediately and help.
But if they put it all together by playing to form offensively and coupling it with some Bo defensive magic, then the Huskers will back in their rightful place in top ten. Likely? Maybe not. But for now, let’s just think about what could be if things go right.
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cvldfg Dec 10 07
Without exactly knowing who will be our assistant coaches, especially on offense, it will be hard to make any forecasts for the future right now.
While we are losing some potency on offense, if we keep most of the coaches intact and with the same system being run for the last 2 years and those same players playing, which, by the way, we do have some athletic talent on that side, shouldn't be as much of a hiccup as some may think.
Most of our losses were because of the defense not the offense. If we can stop teams from scoring as much, it should be about a 4 or 5 game swing in our favor, which puts us at 9-3 or possibly 10-2.
Our schedule next year isn't tough. We get VT @ home, 4th game of the year. And we don't go to Norman until game #9. Missouri will suck next year, Kansas St. loses 5-6 defensive guys, TT will be average, Kansas had its flash in the pan season and Colorado will get there's when they come to Lincoln.
Barring any major losses of personnel through leaving or injury, I predict a 10-2 season.
doombob Dec 10 07
Two things: First, we need Joe Ganz to settle down about 5% or we may see him throw over 20 picks next year. Second, if we can keep the offense around the top 25 and get the defense to around 40-50th in the nation, we will just plain outscore 8 of our opponents next year. The fan in me is yelling "Undefeated! Undefeated!" but the realist in me still says 9 wins.
Greg Morrow Dec 10 07
I'm all for the rosy scenario. I'll be patiently waiting for my boy, Phil Steele's projections.
Simplification will be done in proportion with increased confidence and aggression, on both sides of the ball. (I hope)
Realistically, the defense could manifoldly improve, if for no other reason than Bo will make them more physically efficient, with the confidence that should follow.
Offensively, Watson does have just as big a challenge, to me. He has to both add and subtract things, to make this a genuine college offense. (The type college players are most effective in.) He has to train his coaches too, before spring practice and have it together to present to the players.
You still want some competition at quarterback. Has Witt gone "head case," kooked up in our little winter wonderland? He's a 4.0 student.....
I'd like to see how ready Zach Lee is.
At this point, he's the most intriguing guy on the roster.
Gary Graul Dec 11 07
While I think that Bo Pelini is likely to turn Nebraska around, it won't happen by next year. He'll need a couple of years of recruiting his (and Nebraska's) style of player. I have been predicting the Huskers record for years and never been more than two games off (including last year's 7-5 pick when everybody else's head was in the clouds). I'm going with 7-5 again. That 10-2 pick is absurd.