State of the Union: Texas A&M
6 comments so far
February 2, 2007 by
The tenth in a twelve-part series on the state of the Big 12
The Aggies turned a corner in 2006 after going a combined 16-19 in head coach Franchione's first three seasons, the Aggies posted a 9-4 record that might have been 12-2 or 13-1 if they hadn't lost three heartbreakingly close games at home to Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska by a total of six points. Their 45-10 drubbing at the hands of Cal in the Holiday Bowl no doubt left a bad taste in the mouth of Aggie fans, but they still finished with arguably their best season since 1998.
With players like Stephen McGee and Jorvorksy Lane set to return, the Aggies could well match or exceed last year's record. Then again, the Aggies now must travel to Texas Tech, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. They'll also face Texas and Oklahoma State at home. That's six games that are far from automatic wins. Only the home games against Baylor and Kansas seem automatic. If the Aggies stumbled to a 2-6 conference record, that might be the last straw for Franchione.
Coach Fran's tenure at A&M has included a few fairly weak recruiting years. Things seem back on track but the intervening years might make it tougher to compete now. That's bad news for a coach that doesn't appear to have a lot of time. The win over Texas was a great milestone. That's a game that Aggie fans want to win more than any other every year. But I don't think it keeps Fran bulletproof for another season. A bowl game would seem a bare minimum and even 6-6 or 7-5 in the regular season might not be enough to keep Aggie fans happy. Eight might be the magic number and surely another 9-4 campaign would buy him another year.
The 2007 season will be one to watch closely as it seems pivotal to the future of the Aggie program.
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darren Feb 02 07
A&M's situation this year defines the razor thin line between progress and mediocrity in this age of college football.
Seriously, if they win any (or all...) of the three brutally close losses they took at HOME this year, then people are sure to be downright bullish on Coach Fran and the Aggies. But now...not so much.
The Cal bowl match up was the stuff of administrator's dreams (Cha ching, Dollar Bill Byrne) but a nightmare for the coaches and team. They just did not match up with the Bears.
Still, they are a program with crazy loot, and a ridiculous recruiting base. But, more than anyone, they are this year's poster child for why 12-team "super conferences" are tough sledding.
Steve Feb 02 07
Well said and great point about how thin the margin is between moving forward and dropping out. I think back to the close losses that Larry Smith at Missouri had. In 1997-1998 that program seemed on the verge of building something great. But they lost momentum in close losses to Nebraska (among others). If Smith had gone say 6-5 in 1996 (vs. 5-6), 9-3 in 1997 (vs. 7-5) and 10-2 (vs. 8-4) in 1998 who knows how things might have snowballed in the right direction for the Tigers (recruiting etc.). Instead, they suffered through 4 losing seasons in the next five years.
We can certainly look at Nebraska the same way. If the Huskers had beaten So. Miss, ISU, or CU in 2004 the extra bowl practices might have made 2005 that much better. If they hang on against Texas Tech or finish the comeback versus OU in 2005, then they are Big 12 North champs that much sooner and might finish in the top 10. If they hang on against Texas and score late to beat Auburn the same is true for 2006. So far, they've recruited well enough that it doesn't matter. But it certainly would give Callahan a lot more credibility with fans and probably keep 2007 from being such a high stakes year.
Randy Feb 02 07
Steve, Please elaborate a bit on the reasons of A&M having recent seasons of low level recruiting. We realize that within the Big 12 that Texas has the largest treasury; and that they don't have to recruit but merely select from the Texas high school ranks.
Doesn't A&M have a relatively large sports budget and booster base? I would have thought (obviously erroneously) that A&M would have a leg up on most other in-state colleges and almost all out-of-state schools for the Texas high school talent.
Steve Feb 02 07
Randy,
Fair question. A&M's 2004 class had ten two-star players. My position is that two-star players are usually wasted scholarships. Here are the six two-star guys from Nebraska's 2002 class: Antoine Bagwell, Grant Miller, Ronnie Smith, Cory Timm, Trevor Neeman, and Kade Pittman. Ever hear of them? Busts across the board!
The 2006 class for A&M was no better than fifth in the Big 12 conference. Not terrible, but subpar for a program that as you point out has terrific geography and resources for recruiting. At present, the 2007 class is also looking only about fifth. Each class like 2004, 2006 (and as it now appears 2007) puts more distance between programs like OU and Texas and the Aggies from a raw talent perspective.
The Aggies have shown themselves capable of pulling in classes that are top ten nationally. In the current "arms race" in the Big 12 South, it's imperative that they do just that in order to get back to the conference championship game.
Rob Feb 02 07
As an Ag, I have to say your glimpse at A&M is right on. I am looking forward to the road game in Lincoln, as your team seems to be getting back to its winning ways.
gregory Feb 02 07
It may be because the Cornhuskers only play them twice every four years, but are the Aggies not the most likeable team in th Big XII? Nebraska has a winning tradition that matches up well with anyone, all time. But the Aggies have some special traditions that just make them easy to like.
When Franchione was lured from 'Bama, I thought he was going to make them a top ten team in short order. Like "us" that hasn't happened yet. I'm fairly stunned that they haven't had major success with recruiting.
Watching them play, I think Franchione's offense is a little too much for a QB. A little too ambitious. They really do seem to want a QB who can run a true option set, including "keepers", then the spread set with passing checkdowns. Hard to be really good at everything, (as a wise coach once said). And with the south division being like a southeastern conference division, (you have to be really good at something).