On Schedule? Pederson and the Musical Chairs Game
5 comments so far
May 25, 2006 by
Scheduling can be a lot like musical chairs. When the music stops, are you locked in, or are you the only one left standing? Avoiding being left out requires a lot strategy and some good luck. Recently there was a news item alluding to another schedule update for the future. A few trends are starting to emerge now in year 3 of Steve Pederson's scheduling that might tip off the kind of team NU will add to their schedule.
1. He believes our conference schedule is tough enough that we don't need multiple big-time teams each year to augment it.
So, his pattern is to put on one big-name team (Potential contender from a BCS conference), like Pitt, USC, and now VT. Then he rounds out the schedule with some other mid-level teams. La Tech, Wake Forest, Troy, and Nevada are examples. These teams are good enough to give a legit ball game, but one the Huskers should win. The final slot or two get comprised of total walk-over types, some IAA school willing to take a beating for the money (Western Illinois, Maine, Nicholls State). Put simply, it's usually a big, a medium, and a little on NU' non-conference schedule. We'll see if that changes too much in the era of 12 games.
2. Home games, home games and more home games
Gotta pay those bills, folks. So yes, there will always be some premium on getting a team to come to Lincoln, even if it is a glorified scrimmage. With big-name teams, you almost always have a home-and-home. This is worth it because of the TV money (see point 3) and the exposure. But, the rub comes in because schools looking to make a name for themselves want to get a home-and-home with NU. Pederson has shown a reluctance to give those ambitious mid-levels a shot at NU. He didn't make that schedule with So Miss when we gave them a home game. The real trap is that the folks at ESPN make it very tough to say no to that Thursday night game sometimes. Think about it, Missouri should have never really played that disastrous game AT Troy a few years ago.
3. TV
This is seriously the "x-factor" in nearly every scheduling choice. The Houston debacle happened because the Cougar AD said he could deliver good coverage. He couldn't, and the game would have ended up on CSTV. So, Pederson walked away. That is not the kind of payoff worth putting your team on a lower-tier opponent's field. Giving a home game to someone like Wake Forest, like we do in 2007, really hinges on their ability to deliver some TV coverage. That is easier or a BCS-school like Wake to do than it is for a non-BCS school like Houston.
4. Timing
Sometimes you are just in a bind and there aren't a lot of people to play musical chairs with, especially ones willing to come to your stadium. This is where you often see the 1-AA schools become schedule fillers. Certainly, transitioning from Byrne to Pederson hurt NU's ability to do the schedule strategically. All transitions are tough. Now that it is over, it is clear that Pederson has some clear agendas about how he schedules.
So what about that next opponent? If it's for the '08-'09 seasons, then I'd venture a guess that it is against a "middle", or a fairly good team (I'd prefer one from a BCS conference). Or, it could be they are signing another "big" school (big-name BCS program) for the long-term schedule, after the '09 season.
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Matt Baker May 25 06
Scheduling teams in the off season is most definetly a business. Why else would a top flight division 1 school schedule a division middle of the road 1-AA program. However, sometimes this gets down right ridiculous. Take Texas Techs non-conference schedule for example. Florida International, Sam Houston State? What a joke! Ideally there ought to be some kind of rule discouraging teams to schedule 3 cupcakes. I've always thought Nebraska has done an exceptional job in scheduling non-conference teams. Petterson even seems adding challenges to the Huskers schedule with a home-and-home with USC, and now Virgina Tech. In the long run, from the Television exposure, this should help Nebraska improve, not to mention it generates excitement.
I wish Nebraska would play Iowa more often. cross state rivals, eh. I think that has some appeal to it.
Jason Siffring May 25 06
I pretty much agree with you Matt. We do a pretty good job with non-conference games (Notre Dame, Penn State, etc). But, I cringe when the ole' Nicholls State pops up. NU isn't the worst offender of scheduling cupcakes. Adding strength of schedule to the BCS calculation has probably made that less of an issue the past couple years.
It's a fine line between playing top teams that could hand you a loss and a shot at a major bowl and scrimaging D-II schools at home for a big pay day. Go too far in either direction and you're hosed.
We are still rebuilding, but I'd like to see us error on the side of playing the best to become the best. But, will average Husker fans go along with that at the risk of another 4 loss season?
Totally agree about Iowa. Bring on the Hawkeyes!
Husker Mike Jun 01 06
The Houston game was put originally put together by ESPN, and the only thing that kept the deal from being finalized sooner were the C-USA negotiations with ESPN. CSTV was always a fall-back plan, and was never a serious consideration. Note that 3 weeks later C-USA and ESPN signed a new contract, and Oregon played at Reliant Stadium instead of the Huskers on ESPN2 last August.
Darren Jun 02 06
Thanks for the correction, Mike.
Sorry readers - for getting that series of facts incorrect.
I guess, if nothing else, it confirms the power of ESPN and TV in general.
Lothar Jun 14 06
The other thing that goes unnoticed (or more likely conveniently ignored) by Husker schedule critics is that it has not been uncommon for a D-I opponent to back out of a scheduled game with Nebraska less than a year before the game. That leaves Nebraska with very few options because with less than a year before a game, most reasonable opponents already have their schedules set in stone and the only opponents left that are willing to take a one-game shot at Nebraska are bottom feeders or DII schools.