What to Make of Missouri
Missouri has been largely dismissed as a Big 12 North contender for 2009 despite having won the division each of the past two seasons. That’s likely because the Tigers bring back only five starters on each side of the ball. They lost big names in Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin, and Chase Coffman. But could the team be in reloading mode rather than rebuilding?
Blaine Gabbert was a big-time recruit in 2007. But his 5-13 passing as a freshman was reminiscent of Harrison Beck’s freshman campaign. Gabbert seems likely to be the starter when the season begins. Will he be ready to help MU remain atop the North? He’s got a 1,000 yard rusher behind him in Derrick Washington who managed nearly 10 yards per carry against the Huskers a year ago.
Of greater interest to NU fans might be how good the Tigers will be on October 8 when the Huskers travel to Columbia for a Thursday night game. If Nebraska can limit the Missouri rushing attack the way they did the highly touted tandem of James Davis and CJ Spiller of Clemson, you’d have to really like NU’s chances to hold Mizzou below the 41 points they’ve scored in each of their last three home games against the Cornhuskers.
Missouri really needs a home win against Nebraska because they then have to head to Oklahoma State and Texas in successive weeks. An 0-3 start to the conference season is a real possibility. A loss the following week at Colorado would make it 0-4. The home date against Baylor a week later may not be a get-well game either. The Tigers could be staring at 0-5. Mizzou is bound to win one or both of the games at Kansas State or against Iowa State in Columbia. The game at Kansas could be another loser. A two win conference season is probably a realistic low mark for the team.
On the high side, all they have to do is find a way to remain what they’ve been and they could be 6-2 and headed back to a conference title game. That will mean that Gabbert has to quickly develop and be the triggerman that the recruiting gurus think he can be. Or else Washington has to show he can continue to be a touchdown machine without as much help around him.
Split the difference and you have a 4-4 conference team that might win 7 to 9 games. That would be a step backward but not one so big that Missouri can’t contend in 2010.
8/17/2009
What is the significance of MU replacing two coordinators as well?
8/17/2009
You may want to change the date on your website to Oct. 8th for the missouri game, instead of Oct. 3rd.
The three biggest problems for NEBRASKA, IMO, in the missouri game is, it is the first conference game. It is at missouri, which hasn’t been easy for NU lately. And, they have two weeks off before the game.
But, I do like the fact that NU will have had played a HUGE game already on the road. missouri, not so much. mu vs. ill. 1st week, in St. Louis, not really a true road game.
8/17/2009
HF4L has a good point—though the new coordinators could be a problem as well as a blessing for Nebraska, depending on how well they do against Illinois and how much of their hand Mizzou is forced to tip.
Hopefully Illinois isn’t THAT much better this year to blow Mizzou out of the water in the first half—I’d prefer that the loss come slow and gradual, with Mizzou fighting upstream and showing excellent film all the way. :)
8/17/2009
Missouri will be potentially very scheme-prone this year. As a 10 spread team two years ago they were dangerous because of Maclin in space and the duo of Coffman/Rucker (for their 12 packages) created some nearly impossible nightmare match ups. Out of the 10 Maclin was a dangerous option that had to be accounted for, and in their 12 packages the combonation of size, pass catching and blocking in space made their 12 (with Maclin) a lethal unit presenting a defensive unit with a lot of bad options to consider. The blocking in a 12 for a Maclin jet sweep was stressful to say the least on a given defense’s assignments and gap integrity. The same went for a jailbreak screen. The run blocking in space out of a 12 with a Rucker or a Coffman matched up on a LB or a nickel back was another nightmare scenario for an opposing defense to consider. All of this in a no huddle, and all of this with the added benefit of a pre-snap read. . .
This year you key on Washington. The pre-snap read for Missouri does not have the same benefit without a Maclin to counter a given defensive set. Sell out, up front. Perry is not Maclin and they can’t take a jailbreak or a bubble to the house like Maclin could so be patient. Press everything on the line, and don’t let the wideouts release without seriously contesting the initiative. Sit down underneath and play two principles in the event that Gabbert wants to put one deep (he certainly has the arm for it). . .
I really like us this year in this game. Our guys know that they can execute their assignments and what is expected of them in year two of Coach Pelini’s defense. Now our guys can further grow into their roles and expand to new responsibilities. They survived last year with their psyche intact and emerged from the season with a lot of confidence. This is still a young team and a lot of people got some meaningful minutes last year, Nebraska 31-14. . .
8/17/2009
Also I’ll say this. Maclin was the most dangerous big play talent I’ve seen in the Big 12 (post 2000) since Adrian Peterson and Vince Young. That guy could take everything, at anytime, to the house. Kickoff, sweep, out, post, jailbreak screen, you name it. A special talent that you cannot replace overnight. Funny, Maclin, Coffman and Rucker could’ve been Huskers too. Wonder what Coach Callahan would’ve done with them. Anything?
8/17/2009
James,
I like your assesment, I also think keeing in on Washington is the key. Shut him down and Allen and Turner can focus on sacking Gabbert, I think Suh and Crick can handle the middle gaps. The spread out look last year with the weapons available is part of what made Washington so effective. No one was left to plug the gaps and Washington had lots of options to run through, the pass really set up the run. I think MU will look to do the opposite more this year, let Washington try and open it up for Gabbert. I think the Blackshirts will be much better off this year. Overall for MU?, tough to tell right now.
8/17/2009
Nice article. Very true, too - Nebraska better not fall asleep on Mizzou or they could be in for a surprise.
8/17/2009
ChicagoHusker-
Oh, I wouldn’t worry about Nebraska taking this game lightly. Players and coaches remember all-too-well last year’s thrashing and will be ready to go at Mizzou with all they’ve got. And though Bo won’t ever admit it, no doubt he’s silently filed away last year’s embarrassment with a mind for some payback.
And as we’ve discussed, Mizzou has a lot riding on this game. Nebraska being the preseason North winner has effectively painted a target on our back, plus Mizzou will be looking to make a statement on national TV on their home turf. However, I have faith that Bo and Co. will be fully prepared to take care of business.