Taylor Martinez as a Second Half Passer

Those stats don’t seem to take into account all the games Taylor got hot in the 4th quarter in order to allow the team to come from behind and win. He had some amazing 4th quarters.

GageCoHusker,
As a youngster, I spent most of my summers on my Grandparents farm, near Filley.  Two large ponds, a trail that wound through the length of the section and about 8 acres of pasture land.
So good.
............
The QB and the team, walked a tightrope against every bcs team they played against, ‘cept Minnetonka.
If nothing else, they’re good at walking tightropes.
Taylor has flaws. Everybody understands that. Probably his flaws don’t get discernibly corrected. Or, pass protection improves and receivers make the clutch grabs you saw so many of Nebraska’s opponents make, so often. Maybe the left tackle doesn’t jump, twice in a row, against any good edge rusher.
Then it just becomes an issue of throwing into tight windows and comparing him to Braxton Miller.

Mr. Morrow…good thoughts, sir.  Thing is, if we had had anything resembling a “pipeline” last year, they would have been raving about Taylor all year…look at what he accomplished when he was afforded enough time to throw…most of his fumbles and int’s were a result of said line not handling things…having to throw time and time again in third and long situations, due to stupid holding penalties,  need I say more?  My knees are already raw from praying that situation is resolved by next year…by the by…I lived in Riverside for many years…still regard San Diego as “God’s Country”
Have a good off-season…

Captain Bly,
Thanks!
Through it all last season, I was just reminded that Nebraska (T-Magic) led the B1G in pass efficiency…

San Diego ain’t bad. It’s where Angelinos go for the weekend. But, thinking back years later, my Grandparent’s farm place in Gage county was really great! Majestic, even.

You guys are weird, but pretty cool.

Gage county is where you commute to Lincoln from because you want to live in the country and don’t want to pay the Lancaster county taxes. We live near Adams. I’m the weird one because I’m looking for some good pasture land farther south in Gage county so I can score some county records on some obscure Tiger beetles. Life is more than football for me. Ha ha

Stats don’t lie so for all of the great 4th quarters Taylor had he must have more worse ones.

Charlie, thanks…...I think.  For the Entomologist in Gage county, good luck…those things sound scary as hell…could any of you out there tell me if Taylor plans to spend some more time with the qb guru in California?  Gotta believe that would be a good thing…I’ll have me a bud and wait to hear from you…

Ya he’s going out there I think. Tiger beetles? Cool. I’m a herpetoculturist (reptile keeper/breeder) by passion since I was a kid.

OK back to football. It all revolves around the lines doesn’t it? A good O line and we’re in those games a lot more and Taylor’s not scrambling for his life and can actually get throws off. A good D line and we’re not getting blown out by Wisconsin (and others). One of the sayings I like is “games are won or lost in the trenches”. Another one is “games are won by the team who wants it the most”. And then there is always “defense wins championships”. Does everyone feel those are actually true? I’d be interested to know.
Greg, I was born and raised in Lakeside, CA (San Diego county). Spent the first 15 years of my life there before being moved (and not joyfully I might add) to Nebraska. What a great place to have a childhood! Wow. On our way to Nebraska, I remember asking my Grandma if there were still teepees there! LOL. But Nebraska was a great place to grow up frankly with good midwestern values. I live in Oklahoma now and man they don’t have anywhere NEAR the values of Nebraska people. Nowhere near. Pretty desolate here.
Sounds like the coaching staff gets it as far as the lines go. They recruited heavily to both the O and the D lines…lets hope there are some good players there that develop into great linemen.

Nebraska is a great place to grow up.  I grew up near Chadron. Such beautiful country around there.  I want to give a (that a boy) to the husker wrestling team. A rooster that is full of hard working Nebraska kids.  Now ranked 12 in the country. Wish you guys well at the Big 10 tournament.

Our pet is a Ball python. We lived 13 years in Ok. from ‘88-‘01. Only lost twice to the Sooners those years. I had Husker plates on my car. I didn’t grow up in Ne. The 1st 19 years of my life I lived in east Africa. My mom was from Ne. so here is where I came for college and made my home.

I’m a Husker by blood. Nebraska is a great state—especially if you like bugs.

I don’t hate Martinez, but I don’t think he is good either.  His good does not outweigh the bad.  Just a few things to think about here.

He was the most efficient passer in the BIG? So what?  The BIG is not good, and nobody passes!  Leading the BIG in efficiency when there is arguably one other talented QB, perhaps two, isn’t saying much.  He was 40th nationally in efficiency.  I’d be more concerned with that number. 

Does not anyone ever notice how awful Martinez is in the pocket?  I just want you to ask yourself if you are putting to much blame on the line?  Martinez does not know how to read a defense.  Why do you think he throws an errant interception straight to an unsuspecting defender every other game?  Why do you think teams load the box against us and blitz us all the time? It’s because he can’t pick up these blitzes nor read the D very well.  Which plays a huge roll in why he gets sacked a lot and is running around all the time.  He holds the ball forever because he isn’t smart enough to throw it away or throw it in the ground.  He also leaves the pocket, he backs out of it instead of stepping up in it, like normal QB’s do.  Another reason he gets sacked a lot.  There are subtle things that good QB’s do to take pressure off the line, and Martinez doesn’t do them nor do I think he knows how.  At least not very often. People are putting to much blame on the line.  It’s just as much Martinez as it is the line, if not more on Martinez. 

Do you know that Martinez throws under 50% when throwing more than just 15 yards? Which means our recievers had a lot of yards after the catch.  Which means teams aren’t concerned with him beating them deep, so they load the box.

Do you know that when playing any team not named Southern Miss, Ark-ST, or Idaho St, that Martinez only had a QBR over 135, 3 times all year?  That was against, Penn St, Minnesota, and Northwestern.

Along with the last paragraph, did you know that against anyone not named Southern Miss, Ark-ST, and Idaho St, that Martinez’s completion percentage was 57 and his average QBR was 125?

Quarterbacks are valued based on what?  Big games, third downs, under pressure? Fairly accurate I would say right? 

Taylor under pressure has crumbled.  Big games and not good on third downs.  On third down, he is 54.5%, 6 TD’s and 4 Int’s, sacked 16 times and total QBR is 120. 

In big games he is worse.  I would call our 4 biggest games our losses? Agreed? 

In our 4 losses Martinez threw for 56% with a total QBR of just 109.2.  That isn’t good at all.  Quite possibly more noticeable, is his turnovers.  20 on the year, 18 against non-cream puffs(11 games) and again, in our 4 losses NE had 12 turnovers total.  Martinez had 10 of them.  On average in our losses he was 56%, QBR of 109 with 2.5 turnovers. 

Hate to say it but I honestly think Martinez is getting way to much credit.  It will show this year when we finally have a backup worth of playing time that Martinez is overrated.

Very good points Derek. I do have to give Tmart credit on doing the extra work in the off season. He was way better this year then the last. The sad fact is the up coming season doesnt look any better. The D will be young, and the Oline wont be much better, and loosing big play makers like Bell doesnt help.

What big play maker named Bell did we loose?

Antonio?
Actually, I hope we do loose K Bell.  Just don’t lose him.

loose:
verb (used with object)
20.  to let loose; free from bonds or restraint.
21.  to release, as from constraint, obligation, or penalty.
22.  Chiefly Nautical . to set free from fastening or attachment: to loose a boat from its moorings.
23.  to unfasten, undo, or untie, as a bond, fetter, or knot.
24. to shoot; discharge; let fly: to loose missiles at the invaders.

Again…did something happen to Kenny Bell? What was the Admiral talkingabout? I looked and can’t find anything. Was he injured? Admiral…explain yourself or learn how to write properly.

There was a rumor about Bell and Bo having a fall out and Bell was gona leave. It was just a rumor. I dont think its true, but it was funny seeing you to go into panic mode. Sorry if i dont use spell check on a blog site. Also a few years ago i suffered a bad head injury fighting for your freedom, and at age 35 had to relearn how to write and read. After many years of therapy i was able to get back into top physical condition but im still not the best at spelling. So pe and ballfield what have you two done for your country other than providing us with your smell of ass and failer.

I would have to disagree with some of the folks in here who are “concerned” with Martinez.  Factor in the fact that last year was only his second year playing the same offense and then factor that we faced the full blunt force trama the B1G has to offer as far as a schedule goes, I would have to say that overall he did very well last year.

We avenged our loss to Wisconsin, we avenged our loss to Michigan.  For only our second year in the B1G we found ourselves at the Conference Championship game against a team we, arguably should not have had to play a second time but did.  Martinez still ran the ball down their throats and the length of the field.  Passing was improved but not great but again, the O line argments in here more than express my frustration with where we are as team. 

Martinez has been, is now, and will be a great quarterback.  Provided we surround him with a good offensive line and improve our defensive line capabilities.  It would also seem a good year to open up the playbook a little more since we are not going to be playing either Wisconsin or OSU until the title game.  :)

@Admiral…I’m a good citizena and continue to help little old ladies across the street (litterally), does that count?
I did go into panic mode! Are you kidding! Scared thje hell out of me! Loosing Bell would be a blow.
Excellent post Johnny NE! Taylor Martinez is one of the best QB’s in teh country. He’ll leave Nebraska holding many records. I will always wonder what could have been had he not got hurt in 2010 and had even a modicum of a line to operate behind. Neither his fault. All he’s done is not complained, went out there and did his job. And that run in the B1G tittle game was the stuff of legends. He gets blamed for everything.

PE you miss spelled the word (the). You spelled it thje. How dare you.

Dude! I am so sorry! I, I, I, I, don’t know what to say…! My God I just realized I misspelled citizen in my last post! That’s it…I’m committing myself to a 12 step blog posting program today! I obviously have an uncontrollable problem!

PE its fine i really dont give a crap. This is not grammar class. Its about Husker football which has gotten very depressing.

I was kidding…
But who knows? Maybe we’ve got some monsters on the D who are just waiting to come out and play? Should be interesting, and what do you want to bet the D turns out a better year than last year. Wouldn’t be too hard if you think about it.

@Admiral- I agree Martinez has improved but some people just fail to see little things that really good QBs do to improve their team.  Everyone wants to blame everything on the line and that just irritates me.  I admit, our line isn’t Alabama’s but at the same time it is far from terrible.  People aren’t giving the line enough credit.  Turns out when your QB holds the ball for 3 seconds or more…..you are going to have problems with sacks,int’s, and fumbles.  It is more so Martinez’s fault in my opinion.  Because I see a QB that has little to no pocket prescense, that panics, and makes poor decisions. 

The fact that people are excited that Martinez is going to leave Nebraska with many records, well thats all good and dandy.  But how many records will he have that contribute to him having a dominant season?  One? Two? If any…?  All his records are career records.  It makes it easy to get career records when you are virtually the only QB at Nebraska to ever start for 3 years in a heavier pass offense than all your predecessors.  Joe Ganz threw more passes in a season,only 6 more per game, but other than that no QB has thrown near as much as Martinez, nor had as many carries.  So is it really that impressive?  People don’t seem to realize this. 

Keep in mind he has thrown 852 passes.  Zac Taylor threw the second most with 821-in two seasons mind you-, and then it was Joe Ganz at only 585 attempts in 1.5 seasons roughly.  So he has thrown far more passes than anybody else.  That is why he has the career marks for passing.  In terms of rushing Martinez already has 545 carries, compare that to Frost, Frazier, and Gill, whom had 302,342, and 290 in their careers.  The only QB that has had more carries is Crouch at 648.  Which Martinez will need to rush for about 576 yards to pass Crouch for leading rusher as QB.  Right now Crouch’s yards per carry is higher.

So yes, he is getting career records because of longevity.  His accomplishments are not to be taken away from.  But at the same time people need to realize how he is getting them.  Same to be said for touchdowns.  He won’t be getting the record for TD’s in a season for rushing by a QB.  But his career mark might be higher than most, because he has had more touches.  But even then he would need 28 TD’s to tie Crouch. 

Most importantly though, in an offense where we are throwing more than Crouch, Frost, or Frazier and them did, the most important records are passing.  Which yes, again he has the career marks, but he won’t break any individual season records.  Maybe INT’s, which he may have already broke, I couldn’t find it?  But what he won’t get is the completion record, season or career, he won’t get the QBR record, season or career.  Has a shot at season, but I don’t see him having a QBR of over 155.  Nor do I see him throwing for 68% in a season.  He did get the total yards for a season record, but only because he played another game.  He averaged 277 of total offense a game.  Joe Ganz has the record of 294 per game.  Roughly* Also Martinez best season throwing was just over 200 yards a game.  The record for that is 274 by Ganz.  So I don’t see him breaking those records at all.  His legacy 5 years from now will be that of the guy who couldn’t hold onto the football.  You can’t find fumble records, least I couldn’t, but he surely already has that record also.  Probably has the national record for fumbles.  Part of why he is overrated.

Martinez is a solid QB no doubt.  But at the same time, people do fail to see certain things that have lead to him being a bit overrated.  A couple of you have mentioned he is one of the top QBs in the nation.  That to me is by far a stretch.  I could think of 3 QB’s in each major conference that are better, that would produce much better number in our offense, minus the turnovers.  Our team is in his hands but I think that he is overrated.  Good, but definitely not an elite QB in college football.  Nor one of the tope QBs in the nation.

Derek,

As far as presenting your material goes, you did a heck of a job.  But now present the rest.  In the 2010 Texas game alone 4 of 6 touch down passes were in the hands of our reciever corps but dropped.  To say nothing of the frustration we have had with the receiver corps over the last 5 years as a whole.

Taylor did what he needed to do during the off-season.  If others on the team had done the same, we would have been unstoppable last year.  It is after all a team effort.  If Taylor needs 4 seconds to throw the ball, the O line needs to provide him with 4 seconds to throw the ball.  If Wisconsin is going to have it’s defensive line charge our offensive line, well then maybe that is the time for the Offensive coordinator to call a qb-sneak and not constantly drop him back into coverage.

It is a team effort.  Taylor plays with all he heart, plays hurt, and uses his off time to improve his abilities.  Fast as lightening and now much more accurate.  I wouldn’t count him out just yet.  As a matter of fact, I wouldn’t count him out ever!

Johnny_Nebraska—

Are you Johnny Stanton ? Haha.  JK.  I had just heard that people were wanting to call Johnny Stanton, Johnny Nebraska.

Anyhow, I agree, Martinez puts forth great effort, both during games and during the offseason.  If it were simply a matter of effort then yes he would be great.  But unfortunately effort, although a big part of things, doesn’t mean you are going to be unstoppable.  Sometimes you can put all the effort in the world into it and your abilities will only take you so far.  Regarding the whole team, as well as Martinez.  Just food for though, if Martinez has put forth all this effort to improve his mechanics and such, why hasn’t he done the same for his fumble habits and decision making?  To me, that would be more important than mechanics, because our receivers are very good, he only throws 10 yards half the time anyway.  And please don’t blame the line for 45 fumbles in 3 years.  It’s inexcusable and he hasn’t made an effort to improve it.

I will say our receivers haven’t been great.  But in 2009, though he dropped a few balls, Niles Paul was a good receiver.  He is playing in the NFL and getting good minutes, so to say he wasn’t would be entirely inaccurate.  However, the unit as a whole wasn’t great.  Better in 09 than 2010.  But, having said that, the 2011 group was good, and the group this year-2012 was very very good.  Arguably tops in the conference.  It is in big part to their abilites that Martinez threw for more yards and a slighlty higher percentage.  For some reason you cannot find yards after catch anywhere in college football stats(at least I couldnt) but I would like to see what our guys did after the catch.  Because Martinez throws under 50% when throwing 15 yards or more.  Which means a lot of big plays were made by our receivers running after the catch. Short passes leading to more yards.  This group is very talented, I would love to see what a truly accurate QB would do in our system.

I have to question your logic on the line though?  It seems a bit odd that you’d say, well if Martinez needs 4 seconds to throw the ball then our line should provide that.  That’s pretty out there don’t you think?  I mean no offensive line can block for 4 seconds “on average” for their QB.  And also, I’ll say I made a mistake when I said only 3 seconds.  Because quite often Martinez holds the ball for longer and never throws it away.  Anyhow, with the idea that the line should imrpove, put the effort in so that they can block for 4-5 plus seconds just isn’t logical and not going to happen.  If they could block for 5 seconds, heck teach them to block for 6 and I could be our QB haha.  Good QB’s get rid of the ball quickly, whether the line blocks for a short period of time or a long time.  It’s more about the QB’s awareness than it is the line blocking for a while.  Could it be that Martinez doesn’t no where to go with the ball at times?? And this is why he panics, leaves the pocket, doesn’t throw it away, and makes poor decisions?  I think a little bit yes. 

Just think about this.  As I mentioned, Martinez only had a QBR over 135 3 times all year against BIG play and UCLA/UG.  Those games were P St, MN, and NU.  I will say P-St defense was ok, but not great.  So when we played teams with more speed and more talent, he didn’t do very well.  A few times was downright awful throwing the ball.  By your logic he should have as much time to throw as he did against Southern Miss, Ark ST, and Idaho St?? That is kind of what you are implying by saying that the team needs to work harder so Martinez can never be touched in the backfield.  Well this just isn’t going to happen for any school.  It’s on the QB to make quick and good decisions.  When Martinez plays better defenses, he is very poor at this.  This is why he had 10 out of 12 turnovers in NE 4 losses.  Because those were the 4 best teams we played.  Also against Michigan St(great defense) he had a horrendous game throwing the ball.  He was able to break off some big runs but I wouldn’t count on that kind of performance again.  Point is, again, the line is getting dogged on to much.  Martinez needs to learn to read defenses better and make quicker, smarter, more precise decisions.  The talent is so stacked around him that he doesn’t need to be the most accurate passer, he just needs to be a smarter passer, and take care of the ball.

I have not counted him out.  I understand it’s a team effort.  Does Martinez understand that?  I feel at times he thinks he’s the only one capable of making the play, so he keeps the ball on read plays more than he should, and he doesn’t trust his receivers to make a play on the ball. I don’t know, maybe I’m wrong on that one.  Anyhow, I don’t count him out.  I know he has time to improve still.  My biggest concerns are his decision making abilities.  His prescence in the pocket, his ability to read a D and pick up blitzes, and most importantly his ball security. 

As I said Martinez, I’m about 99% sure, will not be an NFL quarterback, he doesn’t have the skillset to be a passer in the NFL.  But that doesn’t mean he can’t be effective in college.  To me it all starts upstairs, mentally.  We have so much talent around him that he doesn’t have to be an elite passer. And he won’t be.  But he can be effective if he gets smarter.  Better decision making will take him a long way in 2013.  Along with an effort to protect the football.  Those two things will be the biggest key to his improvement.  Through decision making and protecting the ball, if he can cut his turnovers down to 10-12 on the year, he will be very effective next year.  With the talent around him, and a lighter schedule, it’ll be a complete disappoinment if he doesn’t throw for 64-66%.  They say Jamal Turner is improving and looks to be the breakout freak talent we’ve been hoping for.  With a guy like Terrell Newby coming in, that could be like a De’Anthony Thomas from Oregon, there’s just no reason for Martinez not to look better.  Our team is stacked. The O-line probably the weakest part of the offense, but they are far from bad.  The stars have definitely aligned for Martinez to have a great year.  But even then, in my prediction, he will have a more “efficient” season, but won’t put up the same caliber of numbers as last year, especially on the ground.  I would look for him to have about 6-700 yards rushing, 2500-2700 yards passing with about 30 total TD’s again.  Hopefully with 10 turnovers.  I just think we will be beating up on some teams this year.  Which means a great oppurtunity to get Tommy Armstrong some quality time.  Which will be much needed for 2014.

Derek,

Once again.  Great Presentation.  When I was talking about the needed 4 seconds and the provisioning of 4 seconds, what we need to keep in mind is, this past year was only the second year he was running the same offense as the year before.  Ergo, he had to learn a new offense and in the second year of running it, he was doing much better.  He devoted some off time for improving technique but we also went up against some of the best defenses in the nation.

No team in the B1G had to play, Michigan, Michigan St., Penn St, Iowa, AND Wisconsin, except us.  In our second year, we were atop our division and playing in the conference championship.  Now we will have the same offense in the third year, and yes, I too would like to see Armstrong take some snaps, especially early in the season.  He needs to have confidence that he can step in if Martinez should go down.  Lest we have another game like the one against Oklahoma in 2010.  “Oh, ok, we got a first down, now bring the injured freshman back in.” 

I guess, my frustration has been more with the play-calling than with Martinez’s level of play.  When Wisconsin’s Defensive line was standing up and away from the line after Martinez had already ran through them once, I was cursing the playcalling because one or two qb sneaks for 15 yards would have put an end to that hoot-n-anny pretty darn quick.

If the offense is going to have pass plays that require 3 seconds of pass protection in an effort to provide the offensive scheme with deep passing threats, then we need a line that can hold them for 3 or 4 seconds.  However, I absolutely freaking LOVE your logic on the 5 and 6 seconds postulation.  Yeah, at that point I am pretty sure I would be moderately successfull.  Hehe.

Martinez’s mistakes during his first Wisconsin game was not looking for the short pass to the outside, trying to force the ball into a tight window.  That coupled with our reciever’s inability to catch the ball amounted to three interceptions in a manner of 12 offensive plays.  So yes, he did make mistakes.  However, if he doesn’t have three seconds for our recievers to get down field and into the open, he is going to have to go to his short field reciever and that is why his numbers passed 15 yards are shaky. 

We may not be on the same sheet of music but I think our voices blend well into the overal chorus.  “Get Better Nebraska.”  Tradition demands it.

Johhny_Nebraska,

I think you are correct about us singing the same chorus at a different tune.  The biggest difference is I see our offense being much more deadly with a more accurate passer.  Maybe Martinez can get there, be smarter, and protect the ball.  That would be great, but I see a lot of flaws with him as a QB.  Anyhow, again those flaws could be overcome simply by better decisions and ball security.  I don’t think he is bad, but frustrating rather.  And think Nebraska could be better with a different QB.  But you play the cards you are delt.  Right now, its safe to say there is finally talent behind Martinez, but there’s no way of knowing if anyone could be, or would be better until they get their chance. 

As much as I’ve criticized Martinez, I’m excited for him this season.  Still don’t see him being an NFL QB, but he could be very efficient this year, as a whole, both running and throwing.  Which is the main thing.  We keep our turnovers down and this team could be poised for a BIG title run for sure. 

The defense will be shaky, so turnovers will be key.  Help the D out by having minimal turnovers will just be huge.  Because the offense should put up IMO 42 points a game.  That’s another TD more than last year.  Which if that’s the case, boy howdy! Keep turnovers down even with an inexperienced defense we will be a tough out.  A feared team that people shouldn’t want to play.  UCLA is the game that ultimately will set the tone for, in my opinion, the entire year.  If we win that game, big things will be expected, if we lose, we can still reach our goal of BIG title, but we won’t be expected to compete on a national level.  The more I think about it the more optimistic I get.  I truly believe the defense will be improved a lot.  I’d better not think anymore. hehe.

Derek - I don’t have all the facts and figures in front of me but using your criteria of what a good QB is it sounds like you are saying that Vince Ferragamo was the last good starting QB the Huskers have had. Because from Ferragamo in ‘76 to the present no starting Husker QB has been very competent in the passing game. Even Ganz probably the best (statistically for sure) completely melted down when he faced a good defense.

Somehow I think some credit should be given to Martinez. Our standands seem to be skewed. Our defense on many days over the past 4 years has been capable of making a number of future NFL QB’s look bad. We expect our defense to shut other teams down but at the same time we expect our offense to excel against the best defenses out there every time. I think you should go back and look at the game Ganz had against OU (I believe that was the game) where he had a complete meltdown,  was fooled and threw a number of picks.

So I’m not buying your assertion that he is just an average QB. If he really is just an average QB we are in serious trouble. 1) because then the coaches aren’t any good at spotting talent and 2) we don’t have anybody better on the sidelines.

I’m not saying he is worthy of a 1st round draft pick—but in my mind he is one of the best QB’s we’ve had in the last 30 years. He just doesn’t have any rings. He probably would if he’d played for the Huskers in the middle 80’s when we had the soft Big 8 schedule. OU and the 6 dwarves.

GageCoHusker,

My criteria of a QB looks like I’d say Vince Ferragamo was our last good QB?

Gage, people need to stop comparing Martinez to Husker QB’s of the “option days.”  The fact is the game is totally different, those QBs were never asked to throw much or improve their throwing.  When I compared Martinez to some of them, this was somewhat my point, in that Martinez is breaking their records because he has thrown much more than anyone else.  Also had more carries than anyone else.  He also hasn’t been as efficient as Zac Taylor even.

I would ask you to compare Martinez to quarterbacks of this day and age.  I like comparisons to Zac Taylor and Joe Ganz.  Those are fine because they were here in, a different era, where we have become more of a passing team.  I’ll get back to Ganz and Taylor shortly.  But think about Martinez compared to his peers around the nation.  The fact is Nebraska hasn’t really had a good QB period, since our option days.  Again, I’m not saying Martinez is bad, people seem to misinterpret that.  He is decent, but I simply think we will be better when he is gone.  Unless you are right, Nebraska is in trouble a little bit, and we can’t evaluate talent.  The reason we went with Martinez as a FR is because we had NOTHING else.  Period.  There was nobody.  Now he is doing….well ok, so we are sticking with him.  Now we have two QBs behind him that I would confidently say have talent.  For the first time in Martinez’s career, its safe to say there is at least talent behind him.  Who knows just how good either will be.  But I’d be willing to bet either Stanton or Armstrong will be better in 2015 than Martinez in his best season.  Possibly even 2014. 

Think about some QBs around the country, compare them to Martinez.  I watch a ton of football and I see better things from Freshman around the country than I do in Martinez.  Brett Hundley, Marcus Mariota, Johhny Manziel, and even Kevin Hogan of stanford, are all already better than Martinez.  Hogan in my eyes will be better as a SO next year than Martinez.  These guys are all just freshman.  I honestly think there are 2-3 QBs from each “major” conference that I would love to have over Martinez.  But you deal with what you have, and for now, its Martinez.  I would almost guarantee you Martinez does not get drafted to play QB.  He is not a QB, he’s a decent QB.  He would have been great in the option system.  But he is not an accurate enough passer to play in the NFL, at QB. 

I’m not saying we need Johhny Football to be the best team in the nation(although it’d help!) but I like the comparison to Joe Ganz.  If we had Joe in his prime on the 2012 team, we would have been a better football team.  And Joe Ganz is far from great, but he was efficient enough and turned the ball over way less than Martinez.
Ganz threw for almost 3600 yards(294 per game) at 68% with a QBR of 153.6 his Senior year.  How is that not efficient?  Look who he was throwing the ball to.  Decent receivers, but far from anywhere near the talent we have now.  I suppose you could say he had a meltdown -at OU-mind you-as were our four losses when Martinez blundered.  The number of INT’s you speak of was JUST 2.  His percentage was 54.  And as his worst day as a husker he threw for 206 yards, TD.  For a rating of 117.7.  Oklahoma also was in the National Championship that year.  So we were on the road at one of the top 2 teams in the nation.  Joe’s worst game was that day, his worst rating of the year was 117.7.  Yes Ganz had a bad game, had a couple of them, Martinez has more bad games.  4 times in 2012 Martinez had a QBR of under 100, including two under 87, and a season low at M-St of 83.4. 

But why not compare losses.  They are the most important games and in each of these seasons, NE lost 4 games, against the 4 best teams they played.  Keep in mind Joe Ganz didn’t have a defense either. 

So…in 2008 NE offense averaged 35.4 points per game, the defense allowed 28.5 points per game.  In 2012 NE offense averaged 34.8 points per game, the defense allowed 27.6 per game.  So ironically these two teams in these year are incredibly similar.  Our D was slighlty worse in 2008.  Anyhow, in our 4 losses this year(2012), by year end rankings, we lost to #3 OSU, #5 UG, unranked UCLA, and unranked Wisky.  Our defense gave up 595 yds and 53.5 points per game.  Nebraska had 12 total turnovers in these games.  Now, Martinez in these games, on average, threw for 56.4% with a QBR of 109.2.  He had 8 INT’s and two lost fumbles.  So 10 out of Nebraska’s 12 turnovers in losses.  He’s lucky he didn’t have more because he actually fumble more than twice, just loss two of them. 

In 2008 Nebraska’s 4 losses came to #5 OU(played in National Title game though) #12 Texas Tech, #15 Va Tech, and #19 Missouri.  Our defense gave up 442 yds and 46.5 points on average.  With the help of just 9 turnovers opposed to 12.  In these games on average, Joe Ganz threw for 67.5% and a QBR of 148.4.  He had just 5 of the 9 turnovers, not 10 of 12.  They were all INT’s but he had no fumbles. 

Martinez does some good things with his legs.  But in my opinion, as I said before, his good doesn’t outweigh the bad.  In my eyes Ganz, who wasn’t great, is better than Martinez.  Again, I don’t want to say Martinez is bad.  But in my opinion Nebraska would be better off with someone that was just as good as Joe Ganz even.  Someone like Ganz that is just smart, doesn’t turn the ball over 20 times.  Now, if Taylor can be smart, make better decisions, and protect the football, then he will be in position for an efficient season.  We shall see, hopefully he can.

GageCoHusker,

** on the stats for Ganz-
I had listed 294 for his passing yards per game.  That was his total yards per game.  He averaged 274 through the air.

Derek,

First I’d like to say you’ve made many good points.  I just have one one to pick.  You don’t want to compare Nebraska’s 2012 offense to the option offenses of the ‘90’s, yet you compare to the WCO that Ganz operated under.  Still different systems, and different expectations of the QB.  Being a QB is NOT just about passing, it’s about being the complete player that the QB is supposed to be in that role.  Hence, we run more than in WCO days, but less than in option days.  Beck has stated he wants to pass more, so clearly the current mix is due to Taylor’s strengths and weaknesses.  Taylor is not as strong as we’d like in the passing game obviously, but yes his running DOES make up for it.  The two things he definitely needs to improve on are turnovers and decision making (sometimes those are the same).  His mix of running and passing is fine if he just fumbles less, and improves his ability to find the open man.  Because even short passes can be intercepted (e.g, the pass where Bell stumbled, he was probably going to lose yards anyway, it was a TD pick, and Turner was wide open.  E.g. #2, Compton’s TD pick of Murray.  E.g. #3, Oklahoma’s goal line pass against Florida ((even Kurt Warner did that against Pittsburgh!!))).  These are errant decisions, not necessarily bad passes (Like throwing wounded ducks off your back foot).

That’s all I got.  Thanks for the great read.

Ballfield78,

I will say firstly, that yes our systems of WCO and now are different, but oh not by much, they are very very similar.  Simply the title of them is the biggest difference.  When you look at how we play it is very similar.  Many shotgun snaps with multiple receivers.  We used to run heavy RB sets too back then.  Remember, Lucky, Jackson, Glenn, Wilson.  We put backs on the field all at once just like we do now.  Not to mention, Ganz only threw 6 more passes a game, just 6.  We threw slightly more downfield that year, but again, that is because Taylor doesn’t have great success doing this, or perhaps we’d do it more.

So I agree, we are tayloring to Taylor’s strengths haha.  Or we would throw more.  We don’t because, well he isn’t a good thrower.  You are right, the staff does want to throw more, and why wouldn’t they?  You have a QB that fumbles once every 15-20 carries, you might not want him carrying the football 195 times every year.  Reduce the risk of him fumbling or getting injured. 

I understand the idea of errant passes.  Which is exactly why I said Taylor can be efficient if he simply makes better decisions, as you said, sometimes this goes hand in hand with turnovers.  Which is why I kept harping, that if Taylor can be smarter, make better decisions, and protect the ball, he in turn will be good enough to make us competitive.  If not, and we see another season like last year, I’m afraid we are on the way to 9-11 wins(given an easy schedule) with bad losses to better teams. 

Taylor is definitely fast, no doubt, but is he really a good runner??  That’s the million dollar question.  And unlike you, sorry I have to disagree, I do not think he makes up for his blunders with his legs.  Here’s why.

Do you think he runs tough? Breaks tackles, or makes people miss? I don’t.  I think if he has a lane he can hit it.  Because yes he is fast.  But he definitely doesn’t run tough, and he slows down and braces for hits.  Which I bet makes you hold your breath doesn’t it?  HA, I know I do.  Because that’s when he fumbles the most.  Anyhow, he had 1019 yards on 195 carries.  Thats 5.2 per.  Did you know that on just 4 of those carries he had 298 yards??(74.5 average) So if you want to subtract 298 from 1019 and devide it by 191 carries, you’ll get an average of only 3.7 per carry.  If you want to go even further down, Martinez also had runs of 38,35,29,28 and 27.  Just to name a few more.  He has runs of 20, 21, and Im sure a few between 10-20.  Anyhow, add those next 5 run totals to the 298 yards on 4 carries.  You’ll have 455 yards rushing on just 9 carries. (50.5 per) Seems impressive right?!  Well look at it from the other perspective.  That means on 186 other carries Martinez only had 564 yards.  Which is just 3 yards a carry.  Which we know he obivously had some more over 10 yards. 

So my point is, though it is nice that he breaks big runs, he is virtually doing no good unless he runs for 15 yards or more.  He doesn’t run like Frazier,Frost, or Crouch did.  He doesn’t get runs where he drags guys, breaks tackles, or makes people miss.  He simply brings straight line speed to the table.  If he has a lane he can nail it.  But otherwise isn’t much of a threat.  That’s why when you look at his game log for carries it is so inconsistent.  Some teams learned to contain him, I.e-Georgia-he had 20 carries for 46 yards.  Or OSU- 18 carries for 40 yards.  The times he had huge runs were more or less missed assignments I’m guessing, and Taylor took advantage of that with speed, not necessarily elite running ability.  Even against Wisky in the BIG, minus his 76 yard fluke run, he had 18 carries for 64 yards. 

So it keeps the defense on it’s toes because he is so fast, but I don’t really consider him a great runner.  Good but not great.  Either way, with him, it all boils down to the mental aspect of the game.  Mental and turnovers.  He tackles that part of the game and he will have us looking sharp next year.

Derek,
Thanks for the info and I like the fact you have solid arguments to support your beliefs. I would add one thing that I’ve learned over the past 35 years of being a Husker fan. In my opinion the toughest job the QB has is reading the defense and because of that it’s impossible to know whether either Stanton or Armstrong can do it on the college level. They both seem to have the physical tools but they are unknown and untested at the college level.
We’ve all seen so many promising young men show up and fail at it. Remember the years after Turner Gill where each new guy was going to be THE guy. The highschool game and the college game are worlds apart and success in one doesn’t guarantee success in the other. In my opinion neither Zac Taylor or Joe Ganz was a complete QB. They both failed miserably in big games. Turner Gill was probably the most complete QB of the past 30 years. I like the direction our offense has gone though. I think we have the potention to be better with this offense than our glory days of the 90’s. Eventually in the early 00’s defenses caught up with it and we weren’t good enough at the passing game to keep it going. The problem now is getting an offensive line that can both run and pass block. Something the lines of the 90’s never had to do.
Cheers

GageCoHusker,

35 years as a fan is nothing to sneeze at!  Decades of loyalty right there.  I myself have not even been alive as long as you’ve been a fan.  So I thank you for respecting my opinions and giving me props for backing them up.

I really don’t hate Martinez, I know it sometimes appears that way.  I just like people to see things from another perspective.  I just know what I see from him.  And more or less just think that in the end, our potential as an offense at NE will be even greater with a QB that is simply smarter and a better passer.  Oh, also without the fumbles and turnovers of course!

Anyhow, you are completely correct when speaking about how college and high school are worlds apart.  Harrison Beck? How good was he supposed to be?! That clearly didn’t work out.  I would have thought Cody Green was the next Vince Young, based on film and what he did in high school.  So you’re exactly right.  Especially when it comes to QB.  Other positions you might have a better idea about.  Such as RB, for example.  These two boys coming in, mark my words, one of them will be great!  -Giving myself some cushion there haha.  Back to the QB though.  I may have jumped the gun when I put out there that Stanton or Armstrong will be better within 2 years.  Again, there is two of them, so I have some leeway.  But you’re right, without having seen either of them take the field at the next level, I shouldn’t say such things.  That’s my heart talking, and just hoping more than anything.

My thoughts are on them being better…  Would you agree Martinez’s biggest problem is mentally?  As you said, his ability to read defenses, pick up blitzes, and/decision making.  I think clearly it is.  Even if his mechanics are awful, he can still be successful by being better mentally.  This is where I do have to disagree, Joe Ganz was a complete QB.  He did everything asked of him and did it efficiently.  If you can do whatever asked of you in an offense, do it efficiently with minimal turnovers, to me that is, complete.  -Joe outside of his game at Oklahoma actually wasn’t bad in big games, which OU wasn’t completely awful either. He was actually decent in big games. He wasn’t asked to run much but did when he needed to.  But he was capable of doing this all because he had it mentally.  So, Martinez isn’t completely ignorant by any means, but certainly lacking very much of the mental part of the game.  So if he can be successful in this offense, while not being the smartest QB, why couldn’t one of these younger guys?  Because they both already appear to have better throwing skills than Martinez.  I wouldn’t care if you are throwing against air, they look to be better.  So, if they have it upstairs, I don’t see why they couldn’t be just as successful if not more than Taylor.  Because our QB no matter who it is, will be surrounded by tons of talent for the next 2-3 years and hopefully more.  So all they have to be is smart, a game manager, and we will have a potent offense.

I’ll stand by my thoughts on Taylor until he proves me wrong in 2013.  Which I very much hope that he does.  At that point I’ll be more than willing to take any guff about it!  Because that’ll mean Nebraska is poised for a BIG run and should be in the convo at least, for the SHIP.  GBR!

RE: Do you think he runs tough? Breaks tackles, or makes people miss?
Yes, I’ve seen it in the games.  I’ll let you dig up the highlights yourself.  It is mostly speed, he doesn’t juke like Crouch and he doesn’t bowl ‘em over like Frost, but I’ve seen him drag people hanging on his legs for 10 yards, I’ve seen him dive into people at the end of a run to get the first down, I’ve seen him spin out of tackler’s arms, I’ve seen him run right between two defenders who should have been able to get him, and of course there’s the run in B1G game.

Derek,
I think it’s the intangibles that keeps Martinez on the field. Guys of my generation that started watching the Huskers in the middle ‘70’s have been heavily influenced by the changes that came to the program in the early ‘80’s. It can best be summed up by the Hawaii game of ‘82. It started Nebraska time about 11 pm. I was expecting it to be over in a few minutes so I could go to bed. But it was not to be. Turner Gill pulled a muscle during warmups and was not able to start the game. Hawaii taking advantage of a backup QB blitzed on every down which completely confounded the Huskers. At halftime it was 14 to zip for Hawaii. But, due to medical heroics of some type Turner took the field to start the 2ndf half. Hawaii true to form blitzed and Turner reeled off a 20 yard run. They tried it again and this time Turner got 30 yards. The game became the blowout it was supposed to be.

So long story short a QB with running ability became for most of us the definition of a complete QB. So Zac & Ganz will never be considered complete for most guys of my generation. And—if either Zac or Ganz’s offenses had ever faced the Husker defenses of 09 or 10 they would have been eaten alive. They didn’t bring enough weapons to the table.

As far as statistics go—they are great—in fact I’m the statistics guy for the company I work for and I can tell you they don’t tell the whole story. I regularly have the GM in my office asking me why the statistics point the way they do. The statistics don’t mention that Martinez played 3 games in 2012 in high winds. Days that messed with a passing QB’s stats and one of the reasons we need a QB that can run. So I’ll go back to intangibles. Martinez has it in my opinion. That’s why the defensive minded Pelini put Martinez on the field as a freshman instead of the senior Sam from Az.

Gage, you were doing good until the Sam reference.  Wrong season, wrong coach.  Ganz replaced Keller in Calli’s final season.  Bo put Martinez out instead of the Sr Z. Lee, and personally I think Lee had the leadership and poise that R Fr Taylor did not yet have.  But I think Taylor’s matured a bit since then.  Hindsight, I would have had Lee running the O until the UT game, then unleased Martinez on UT when they weren’t expecting it.  For a few drives, anyway.  Oh well.

Ballfield,

You are right—not Sam - rather Z. Lee was the guy Martinez replaced. Head scratcher for me later in the year when Martinez was hurt why Lee didn’t play more. Must have been something never released to the press or the press agreed to keep quiet.

Gage and Ballfield,

I believe that Zac Lee was injured.  He hurt his throwing shoulder and was never the same.  Or we may not have seen Martinez play as much.

Anyhow, Gage, I see your points of a running QB being a complete QB because he can do multiple things.  I understand that is how our offense was built.  Our is tayloring to Martinez’s strenghts now, but honestly think it could be built for a pocket passer too.  Esepcially with the talents we shall have at RB.  I just have one question then.  Are you basing a complete QB off of the system? Because Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and many guys like this are absolutely complete QBs.  They probably run 5.5 40’s and are not mobile haha.  But they are the standard by which a QB is measured.  I understand college is different, but even in college these guys didn’t run and were elite.  They didn’t need to run.  So I’m curious now as to what your definition of complete QB is?

I wouldn’t factor in weather to much in games.  I mean you play the game no matter what.  So yea Martinez played a couple games in high wind, but I’m sure Ganz did too.  I mean if you want to get technical on all of that kind of stuff, you could also look at total ranked teams played, top defenses played, wins against ranked teams, and all sorts of areas.  Because Joe clearly did better against ranked teams and better opponents than Martinez has.  If you simply look at the game logs for both Ganz and Martinez, then the rankings(at years end) you will see Ganz was superior to Martinez there.  In fact the only ranked team Nebraska beat in 2012, by year end rankings, we beat two teams.  Northwestern and Michigan, Michigan had 5 losses and we beat them virtually minus a QB haha.  And Northwestern had one of the worst overall defenses in the nation, and an even worse pass defense.  So there are many stats that could be pointed out.

Anyhow, I just hope that Martinez improves, because in my eyes we won’t get over the hump until he, or another QB improves. GBR

Derek,
I would be in the camp that says weather is a factor. There is games up north here every year that pose problems for the passing game. Like the game at Iowa in 2012. For that reason I don’t believe any running only or passing only QB is complete. The NFL has to live with passing only QB’s because they can’t risk getting hurt. I’d love to have seen the ‘83 Orange bowl played in Lincoln Ne. We’d have killed Miami. That was one of the coldest winters ever recorded in Lincoln. For 3 weeks before Christmas it never got above 0. In those days the Huskers didn’t have a decent indoor practice facility.

As far as your stats comparing Ganz to Martinez relating to quality of opponent. I’d say they are highly suspect because you based them on human polls. I have little use for human polls. Humans have bad memories and are highly biased. You should go back and refigure everything using a composite of the computer polls. One of the great injustices foisted on the football public was the discrediting of the computer polls by the sports media. They had a lot to lose and so made sure it didn’t happen. But for those of us that use computers for compiling and analyzing data—well we know the ranking of college football should be done by computers—not humans.

So all your data on ‘ranked’ teams is bogus in my opinion. Michigan lost 5 games in 2012. 4 of those teams were some of the best but pollsters rank by number of games lost so we decide with 5 losses they can’t be any good. That’s bogus.

GageCoHusker,

Well Gage, it’s fair to say you opened a whole new can of worms haha.  When you talk about the “human” polls being “bogus”, you are in the minority on that one.  Very few people actually believe what you believe. 

Firstly, if you want to compare BCS final year end rankings between the Ganz and Martinez comparison, by all means do so.  You will find that they are still in favor of Ganz.  The BCS doesn’t do “year end” rankings, they only do up to the bowl games, so even then it is a bit skewed.  But still in favor of Ganz. 

You realize that the BCS is designed to take the rankings based on “human” voters?  The BCS doesn’t start till what, week 8 or 9?  So this frauded system takes the votes created by preseason and eventually best records and the human eye.  THEN it is all numbers.  It is a computer!  The computer simply goes off win/loss records based on strength of schedule created by HUMANS. 

There is a reason they are extending the season in 2014 to a playoff.  It is because the BCS is complete garbage.  The 2014 playoff will probably be extended to 8 teams in 4-6 years, I bet you.  A computer crunches number, it does not watch the games sir.  So if anything you contradicted yourself when you say that my “data on ranked teams is bogus” because in the BCS Michigan and Wisconsin were ranked lower in the BCS than the human polls.  When anybody with one eyeball that can actually watch the game(not a computer) would rank Michigan and Wisconsin above these teams listed here.
In 2012 before bowl games mind you the BCS had these teams ranked.

Northern Illinois-15th
Utah State-22nd
San Jose State-24th
Kent State-25th

Are any of these teams better than Wisconsin who isn’t listed in the BCS? No they are not.  In fact none of these teams were any good, period.  This is what you get with the BCS, and it is garbage.  Human voters by far outrank a computer that only crunches numbers, based on bogus preseason rankings.  The only time human voters are terrible is in the preseason.  Rankings shouldn’t be decided till week 7-8.  But the BCS follows the preseason rankings and preseason schedule.  It’s horrific!  And again, you are the minority on this one.  If people agreed that “human” rankings are garbage, and BCS is supreme, then they wouldn’t be changing the format would they?

Derek,
The BCS is not purely a computer ranking. The BCS computer merges both human and computer polls but is heavily weighted to the human polls. Originally it was more biased to the computer polls and teams were getting into the nat’l championship game (NU in 2001) that didn’t win their conferences but were ranked higher in the computer polls based on strength of schedule (etc) so of course sports writers from other parts of the country cried and got the system changed to where it is today where the human pollsters have the weight not the computers.

I understand I’m in the minority but for the life of me I don’t understand why. The King (BCS) is wearing no clothes. So I agree—toss out those final BCS rankings. They aren’t the result of pure computer analysis. Those 4 teams are ranked high in the final BCS poll because of the weight of the final human poll not because of their computer rankings. Check that out and see if I am right—I’m asking you to go to the computer rankings (I believe there is 5-6 different nat’l computer ranking programs) and make a composite of them. Each of the computer rankings has it’s own bias so that’s why you need to do a composite of a number of computer polls. It doesn’t bother me to be in the minority. I use computers daily for analizing data so I know they do a better job than humans. The computers polls only use real data from actual games so preseason human rankings mean nothing to them.

Derek,
I need to point out also that the ‘eye’ test is notoriously unreliable. Last fall our eyes told us OU was going to blow ND out of the water. Didn’t happen. Our eyes are deceived by big offensive performances. I’m not saying there is a perfect computer ranking program out there. The weakness lies in the sampling size. 12 games most of which are played within a conference. Right now our non-conference scheduling is designed to court the eye voters. One good team, one 1/2 good and two bad teams to get experience. If we wanted a better computer sample we would schedule better teams from better conferences.

I would love to take 2 months (or longer) off work to design a complicated scoring system to provide the data for the computers to evaluate. It would be tough though. I do some of that for my job but I only use 4 criteria to score. For college football you would want many. Computers are good at evaluating what has happened but even with that it is very difficult to predict the future from the past. Not what we are trying to accomplish that. We are trying to objectively determine on paper a ranking of teams. Humans are hopelessly biased.

I agree that humans are definitely biased.  I just don’t believe in the computer system.  I feel there is some form of computers that are needed to be involved to keep things on a level playing field.  I.E-keep biased voters controlling the polls. 

I’m guessing the reason you are in love with the computer statitiscal analysis is because that is in fact related to what you do with your career?  Anyhow, to me there is no substitution for the quote unquote “eye” test.  Yes, there are biased voters, yes there are people with more knowledge of the game and people with less knowledge.  So there will always be controversy.  But to me a computer has “no knowledge” of the game, because it is just computing an equation.  Honestlly(the only analogy I can think of at the moment haha) it would be like replacing figther pilots with computer or machine driven autopilots.  A computer can never trump the instinct or the vision that a human has.  It simply calculates the best scenario based on an equation.  So that is why I believe it is flawed.  There has been controversy over the National Champ other than maybe 2-3 years since the BCS began? Or at least controversy on who should have played anyway.  The only way to eliminate the controversy over that is to do a playoff system.  The BCS combined with a playoff system will be efficient.  Nobody ever question who wins the NCAA basketball title do they?  Nobody questions who wins the Super Bowl? Or how about the NBA finals? Or NHL Stanley Cup?  These leagues have systems that work.  If any team at the end of a season makes it through the NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, playoffs, or the NCAA tourney, they have earned the right to be called the undisputed champion.  Correct?  I think so.  Sure sometimes a top team gets upset but that’s the beauty of it.  A great team will still win and there will be no controversy.  In college football, seems like every year there is a debacle on who should play or who the best team really was.  A lot of people still think Oregon Ducks were the best team in 2012, I’m one of them.  They had a crazy OT game that they should have won but hey that’ll happen.  In a playoff system they could have won it all.  Who knows?

Again, controversy will happen, no way around it.  But when this playoff system starts, the only controversy will be between the 4 that make the playoff.  But there will be no controversy over the team that makes it through it and is crowned champ.  This is why I think after a few years it will move to 8 teams.  Because we have seen seasons where there are 5-6 teams with only one loss before the bowl games start.  8 teams would be ideal in my opinion.  I am pretty excited for college football once this new system starts.

Derek—I work in purchasing and inventory management. I’m not a computer geek. We aren’t trying to calculate who would win scenarios—we are trying to rank, without bias, the best teams so we can pit them against each other. Your computer analogy equates too ‘who would win scenarios’ not who is best. Have you ever heard Sipple explain how difficult it is to vote and how inadequate he has felt doing it? It’s a nightmare job for a human.

To eliminate controversy we need to have more than 8 teams in the tournament. I would like to see 16. There will always be someone who thinks they got left out. Right now I’m in the camp that thinks the old bowl system before the BCS worked better than what they have now. Maybe they will get it fixed and we’ll have a decent playoff system.

Derek—It takes me awhile but I’m amazed at what you wrote. You began this discussion with a flurry of statistical analysis documenting why you thought Martinez was at best an average QB. Pure statistics. You tossed the ‘eye’ test on Martinez right out the window. Now it sounds like you want a team ranking system that is not based on statistics but rather based on the ‘eye’ test. Please explain yourself. I’m confused.

GageCoHusker,

Firstly, as you said, as I said, there will always be controversy.  But the difference is with the new system it will be controversy on who “gets in” the playoff.  Nobody will complain on who the champ is.  It will be difficult with 4 because sometimes the 5th best team in the nation, based on rankings, might be the 3rd or 2nd best.  But the point is when champ is crowned nobody should complain.  That’s why I think 8 will be plenty.  Even if you went 16 teams, the 17th and 18th or even to 20th will feel cheated that they didn’t get in.  But with 8 teams it doesn’t prolong the season like a 16 team playoff would.  That’s just too many teams for college football.  That would mean if you still played 12 regular season games, with a conference title, the two teams that made the championship would play 17 games in a season.  That’s way too many.  The NCAA wouldn’t probably go for that.  Especially because they still want to keep all the bowl games.  So I think the most you’ll see it grow to is 8 teams.  Unless they limit the regular season.  But we’ll see.

Secondly, just because I didn’t directly say Martinez doesn’t pass my “eye” test doesn’t mean I didn’t talk about it.  In fact I may have even said that he doesn’t pass my “eye” test.  Because he doesn’t.  If yo reread one of the first things I said, I talked about his pocket prescense, his inability to read defenses and pick up blitzes, his mechanics, how he holds the ball to long, and how he panics and backs out of the pocket.  I’m sure you know that all of these things are not statistics.  They are my opinions based on what I’ve “seen” from him.  Essentially, the eye test.  So in now way did I throw that right out the window as you mentioned. 

Also I didn’t say I want a system based solely on the eye test haha.  Did I not say I believe a computer system is needed to keep balance between biased voters?  Did I not say the BCS, combined with the playoff system, would be an efficient system?  I believe I did.  So I don’t know how you came up with the notion that I want a system based soley on the eye test, or human voters.  But anyhow, I also want to mention that me throwing out statistics that Martinez had compared to what the computers for the BCS do, is totally different.  The BCS calculates numbers essentially based on an equation.  Martinez’s statistics come from live game play and his proformance.  Much, much, different.  But either way, I never said I want a system based on the “eye” test.  Nor did I throw the “eye” test with Martinez out the window.  In fact is was basically the first thing I said.  He doesn’t pass my eye test because of all those things I listed that are not “stats”.  The only time he passes my eye test is when he is running in a straight line.  I approve of that haha.

Derek—With about 120 teams to pick from the tournament needs at least 16 teams to be legitimate in my mind. The NFL gets 12 in from 32 teams. With 16 teams I think most of us would be content that the best team at the end of the season would be included. With only 8 it’s possible that the best team would get left out. See the problem is the Colorado team of 2001. With injuries and young players I believe they lost 4 games early in the season taking themselves out of any Nat’l championship contention. But by Thanksgiving they were a very good team that laid a whooping on the Huskers and went on to beat Texas in the Big 12 championship game. But with 4 losses they were a no go for any kind of BCS contention and wouldn’t have made the top 8 if a tournament of 8 was in play. But they might have made a top 16. The Huskers with one loss got to play for all the marbles.

With a computer comparing all the stats it would be interesting to see where that CU team would have fallen. I’m not asking for a single computer program. I’m asking for a compilation of several because each is going to be biased to certain stats. As long as humans are in control of the polls the teams from higher population density areas are going to have an advantage. I’d like a level playing field. I don’t have much use for how the BCS calculates it now. The coaches poll is worthless. That’s who got those 4 schools into the top 20—not the computer polls.

Well comparing college to the NFL is not necessarily a great comparison.  Typically year in year out any given team in the NFL can win the Super Bowl.  Every player on the team is an all star.  Even then some teams still manage to be awful, but usually its only a handful of them that are consistently bad.  Otherwise with the right management any team can go from a middle of the road, or even sub par team in the NFL to winning the Super Bowl.  So its much different.  In college, not every player is a stud, in fact very few when you look at the volume of players out there.  Out of the 124 teams or whatever there are, you can automatically throw out half of them.  In fact you can throw out half of that half haha.  In the NFL, every year, there is legitimately 20 teams at the beginning of the year that could make a run for the Super Bowl, if not a few more than that.  In college, you can look virtually at any single season, and say that there is really only a dozen legitimate contenders.  If even that.  I mean sure there are some good teams that have 3-4 losses but that doesn’t mean they are close to being the best in the nation.  I mean, could that team make a run, sure, I suppose so.  Anybody can beat anyone typically on any given day.  But look at Bama this year, on any given day I’d only put about 4-5 teams with a chance at beating them. I understand where you are coming from with Colorado having injuries that year, but that is part of the game.  This year Texas A&M in my opinion was the best team, them and Oregon.  But A&M played Florida early on the road and barely lost, otherwise you would be looking at A&M as the champ.  So it is a pickle to find the ideal system, and really there isn’t one.  I don’t hate the idea of 16 teams, but I just think it is to many for College Football.  I’d like to see 8 for sure or moving to 12.  But 16 seems to be to much.  Because one other thing that makes college football what it is, is the importance of the regular season.  The importance of winning every game.  Which is exactly why this thing is only starting at 4 teams.  Because the NCAA doesn’t want to lose that.  That is one thing that is unique in about all sports.  In college football you HAVE to win every game or you won’t have a shot at the title.  Or just about every game.  At a 4 team playoff, you still have to win every game.  You might be able to drop one, but depending on who that one game is, you could be out of the playoff.  If you expanded it to 8, you would still have to win almost every game.  If you lost 1, you would probably be in, but don’t lose 2 games because then you could be watching on the sidelines.  There will be some teams that get in with 2 losses in an 8 team system but some will be out.  So your strength of schedule and the importance of quality wins along with winning most of your games would still be in tact.  If you went to a 16 team playoff, you could potentially have teams with 3, or possibly even 4 losses make the playoff.  And that would just ruin the regular season to me, just to much.  A team with 3 losses shouldn’t be in the hunt for the title.  For example, not to bash on our Huskers but if you go off of week 15 rankings(BCS) we were the 16th best team in the nation.  We would have made a playoff with 16 teams.  No offense to our boys or anybody that feels we were a solid team, but we would have had no business being in a playoff.  We wouldn’t have deserved it.  You can’t lose 3 games in the fashion we lost them(minus UG because at the time we wouldn’t have played them yet) and expect to be competing for a title.  That’s just my take on the 16 teams.  You would have teams with to many losses and teams that are nowhere near the best teams in the country.