Plan of Attack: Virginia Tech Hokies

I don't know what you've found, but personally I've been mighty impressed with the class and knowledge the Virginia Tech fanbase has shown online in regards to Nebraska and there's no doubt in my mind that those of you heading to Blacksburg this Saturday will come back gushing about the experiences you had with the Hokie faithful.

I'm hoping that the Huskers will come home with equally high spirits but the fact is Lane Stadium ain't a nice place to visit for the opposition. The last 10 nonconference opponents Virginia Tech has played have lost by an average of 20 points and the last one to beat them there was #1 ranked USC in 2004. Phil Steele lists the Hokies homefield edge as -6, about as high as you're going to see, so it was with some surprise that I noticed the opening line for NU-VT was only -3.5.

Do the wiseguys know something we don't? Let's try to plan this out.

1. STOP THE RUN (All caps + bold = VERY IMPORTANT)
In a season and a change of doing this post, I've always tried to avoid mentioning stopping the run because it such a fundamental tenet that it's hardly worth stressing. Teams almost always rush for fewer yards in losses than they do in wins. It's a constant, not insight. That's just football.

But Virginia Tech might represent the first true exception I've come across. In the case of the Hokies, it's not just that they rush for fewer yards in losses, they rush for drastically fewer yards in losses. Here are the differences between their per game total rushing yard averages in wins versus losses since 2004: 122.07, 155.64, 96.7, 33.49, and 99.55. Overall, in their 15 losses over the past five seasons, Tech has averaged 78 yards per game on the ground which is 101.78 yards per game worse than they were in wins. The Hokies best rushing output in a loss was the 150 yards they put up against Boston College last year and they've had five losses over the last five seasons where they didn't break the 75-yard mark, not including the 64 yards Alabama held them to in the season opener this year. It's never been worth saying before but in this case it's priority number one: stop the run and, recently at least, you stop Virginia Tech.

Nebraska didn't do that last year, giving up 206 yards on the ground, over half of them to Tyrod Taylor. While the Hokies ground game was pretty well contained by Alabama, Taylor still made a a few escapes from the incoming Tide that made me cuss so forcing him to beat you with his arm is probably priority number 1A. If Nebraska is able to put Tech in passing situations, they still have to be wary of Taylor's ability to improvise with his feet. The Huskers showed some lapses last week with a few big runs by Arkansas State. That absolutely won't fly this week. I don't care if the Huskers outrush the Hokies as long as both teams are hanging around the 100 yard mark. If that's the case, Nebraska should be in pretty good shape.

2. Make their offense earn their points.
Once you get into the weekly routine of the season, you spend so much time focusing on your opposition's abilities that it's easy to forget your own team's strengths. One of the Huskers' strengths, to adapt a phrase I've always hated on the hardwood, is that Nebraska can score the football. Since Watson took over the offense the Huskers have scored fewer than 25 points one time, the 52-17 loss to Missouri last year. In 2008 the Hokies won seven of their 10 games without hitting the 25 point mark. The game in Lincoln last year actually marked the high water point for points scored for Virginia Tech with 35.

How'd they do it? Beamerball, Beamerball, Beamerball. There I said it. When discussing Virginia Tech's point output you're contractually obligated to mention at least three times the helping hand they get from their special teams/defense and that was certainly the case with the game last year. A blocked punt, an interception returned to the Nebraska five yard line, and back to back unsportsmanlike conduct penalties lead to 16 Virginia Tech points in that game and that certainly won't do on the road.

Look for the Huskers to be conservative on fourth downs in coin-flip territory between the 35- and 45-yard lines on VT's side of the field. Field position is huge with a team like Tech and the Blackshirts, while giving up some yards, have again shown the ability to limit the damage giving up only one touchdown and two field goals thus far. The Hokies have made their name scoring unconventionally. That element has to be taken away on Saturday.

3. Even a good defense gets tired.
You have to go back to October of 2007 to find a game the Hokies lost while winning the time of possession. In 2008, Virginia Tech finished third in the nation in TOP. One of the two teams ahead of them was Nebraska.

Thus far in '09, the Huskers have been merely average in TOP (65th in the country) but that's not that surprising when you consider that NU has had six scoring drives of five plays or less against their first two Sun Belt foes. Ball control is a trademark of the West Coast Offense (or whatever we're calling it these days). The Huskers finished fifth overall in their last good season under Callahan in 2006 and we saw just how effective it could be in an overtime loss at Texas Tech last year where the Huskers held a mammoth 20 minute edge in time of possession and kept the explosive Red Raider offense off the field.

In this case, the goal is to keep Tech's defense on the field. Against Alabama two weeks ago, Virginia Tech had a nearly 15 minute disadvantage in TOP and the Tide showed that even lunchpail defenses wear down just like anyone else, scoring 18 fourth quarter points to put the Hokies away.

I don't care if Nebraska does it through the air or on the ground--my preference would be about a 170 yard performance out of Helu if you're curious--but just like not giving up easy points via turnover or special teams, the goal here is to make Virginia Tech earn what they get. The Hokies aren't a lucky team. Rather, Frank Beamer has created such a culture around the minute details of the game that Virginia Tech is far and away the best team in the nation at creating their own luck and it's proven very difficult to avoid, particularly in the madness of Lane Stadium.

For Nebraska to win this weekend they'll have to avoid it. If they can, I like the Huskers chances.

If they can't? Well, what's one more story about our big game failings?

Painful, that's what it would be. I have my qualms about this game but I also think Nebraska is starting to find a few areas of the game where they can cause some problems. That, and I'm also a homer.

Prediction: NU 31 VT 27