Plan of Attack: New Mexico State

Thanks to weather patterns on the American Gulf coast, New Mexico State has yet to play a game in 2008 and that makes getting a read on this year's Aggies particularly tough. You can almost throw out their defensive statistics--bad as they were they still ranked higher than Nebraska--as NMSU has a new defensive coordinator this year and the much discussed, quirky 3-3-5 defense. Who knows how that will look in game one.

Offensively, you're able to get a better picture. Three-year starter Chase Holbrook is back at QB and the Aggies also return four of their top five receivers from 2007, a unit that Phil Steele dubbed the best in the WAC. You don't need game film to know that Hal Mumme likes to throw the ball a bit.

So how does Nebraska approach the enigmatic Aggies? Here's my best guess.

OFFENSE
As I mentioned earlier this week, there are as many opinions about how to attack the 3-3-5 defense as there are experts on a Sunday morning. Nate Swift seemed to salivate at the idea of challenging their Cover-3 deep. He also noted that the 3-man front seems susceptible to the run.

In 2008 Nebraska has been much better at the former (20th in the nation in passing yards/attempt) than the latter (74th in the country in rushing yards/attempt). Of course the public is jonesing for the run and that might actually be where the Huskers start.

Last year New Mexico State was the 75th ranked defense against the run. That ranked behind SJSU but ahead of WMU, so should we expect Nebraska to settle comfortably in the middle at about 120 yards at 4 ypc? That'll depend a lot on the offensive line. Sure there are fewer down linemen to block but that means getting off the ball and picking up linebackers who make for smaller but shiftier targets. This could be a good test for the as yet disappointing big uglies.

At this point, you have to figure Nebraska can throw the ball with some success on just about anyone. The 216 passing yards the offense put up last week was the lowest total since the Nevada game in 2007 and I'll be surprised if Ganz doesn't have a more Ganz-like game this week. The Aggies do return four DBs with starting experience--chief among them FS Derrick Richardson--but with a new system in its first game I'd expect Nebraska to be as deceptive as possible. Play action could be the play of the day. Make those defenders learn and respect their assignments all at once.

DEFENSE
New Mexico State will move the ball against Nebraska. Of the three offenses Nebraska has faced thus far, the Aggies are by far the most potent. Mumme's passing posse ranked 5th overall in passing offense last year at 331.9 yards per game. Chase Holbrook ranked as the 25th rated passer in the country and threw 26 touchdown passes.

Despite all that chucking it around the yard, NMSU struggled to score in 2007. The Aggies ranked 89th overall in 2007 in red zone conversion percentage, converting 77.27% of their chances inside the 20 into points, and averaged only 24 points per game to rank 87th in scoring offense. As Steve noted last week after SJSU, Nebraska was average overall but pretty good in the red zone against the Spartans so that may be a trait that favors the Cornhuskers.

One that won't is the sheer number of passes Nebraska will see on Saturday. Linebacker and defensive back play has been spotty thus far and the Aggies will likely approach fifty attempts on the game. With the lack of depth and inexperience at linebacker, keeping people fresh could be a concern and they will be asked to make open field tackles. No doubt about it, this is a serious challenge for Nebraska's 105th ranked passing defense.

FINAL VERDICT
If you're hoping this is the week for Nebraska to earn their Blackshirts there will certainly be the opportunity to do so, I just wouldn't count on it. This one has all the makings of a shootout. I'll be awfully surprised if Nebraska is able to shut down the Aggie offense but so far this season they've been able to make enough stops and big plays to survive.

The good news is New Mexico State, with no games under the belt this year, is probably worse off defensively than Nebraska. Expect Watson to call for the run early in hopes of attacking the 3-man front, controlling the clock and keeping Chase Holbrook off the field. However, if Nebraska needs to score often Ganz and Co. have proven their ability to do just that.

Like San Jose State, New Mexico State represents a good chance to learn a great deal more about this Nebraska squad. Their strengths (passing) exploit one of Nebraska's weaknesses (the still learning back seven). On the other hand, their weaknesses (a smallish, inexperienced defense) represent an opportunity for Nebraska to answer their biggest offensive question thus far (o-line play/running game).

As much as I'd like to see the defense prove themselves this week, it might be a matter of which defense bends the most but ultimately breaks the least.