Plan of Attack: Missouri
How do you beat Missouri? Tough to say since Oklahoma's the only team to do it (twice) over the past 18 games.
Looking at the split stats and box scores from Missouri's two losses last year don't reveal a whole lot. Rushing yards, passing yards, turnover margin, almost nothing's out of the ordinary range for wins versus losses.
That said, there are at least a couple of things Nebraska will have to do in order to hang around on Saturday.
OFFENSE
Conventional football wisdom says that, when facing a powerhouse offense, you have to control the clock and keep them off the field. You control the clock and keep them off the field by running the football. I've heard or seen this old chestnut trotted out quite a bit this week.
Problem is, Nebraska has yet to prove they can actually do that. I'm not sure that weakening your overall offensive attack is the way to win as an 11 point underdog at home. Nebraska has to do what they do well and, at this point, that consists mainly of throwing the ball to Nate Swift. Of course they'll have to get some other people involved (paging Mike McNeil) but I'll be awfully surprised if you see a major change in game plan when Nebraska has the ball.
Right now, Nebraska succeeds at throwing the football. Missouri, ranked 112th in passing yards allowed, is susceptible to the pass. I'd rather risk getting blown out than to get away from our strengths just to play keepaway.
(Disclaimer: Something about the way Bo cryptically said "we'll see on Saturday" when referring to whether or not Helu would be the starter this week makes me think he could see his first game with 20+ carries. If that's the case, then I could stomach that. That's a new wrinkle. Let's see if the kid's a star. And for the record, OU lost the TOP battle in their regular season win over Mizzou last year.)
DEFENSE
The Tigers will move the football. Everybody knows this. Bo Pelini knows it. You know it. I know it. Chase Daniel has been as close to perfect as a quarterback can be and Nebraska's defense, well, hasn't. The Sooners got Daniel to throw 3 INTs over their two wins over the Tigers last year and held him to 1 TD. Problem is, Nebraska isn't Oklahoma. Not even close right now.
The calling card for Pelini's 2008 defense at Nebraska has been minimizing the damage. This season, Nebraska's opponents have reached the red zone 20 times, scoring 14 times for a 70% average which ranks the Huskers 27th in the country. Of those 14 scores, 8 have been touchdowns, 6 field goals. The fact that Nebraska was able to hold Virginia Tech to 3 field goals in their six attempts kept them in the game. Same story with San Jose State.
In 2008, Missouri has scored on 17 of 19 red zone possessions (89.47%), 14 of them touchdowns. In their wins in 2007, Mizzou scored on 52 out of 58 red zone possessions (89.66%), 40 of them touchdowns. The Tigers scored on all of their red zone possessions in their two losses from last year but the split was much closer to what Nebraska has achieved so far this year at 5 TDs to 4 FGs. It may not be dominance, but this is something Nebraska has done and can do well.
But with a team like this Missouri squad, I think the ability to give up FGs instead of TDs might even be magnified a little bit. Against Virginia Tech, it wasn't that big of a deal for the Hokies to take three rather than seven points. That's how they play football. Get what you can and create opportunities elsewhere.
With a juggernaut like the Tigers, however, field goals feel like much more of a loss for the offense and a win for the defense and I think the Memorial Stadium crowd will realize this, especially early on. A red zone field goal for Mizzou might warrant the same ovation a Chase Daniel sack would.
FINAL VERDICT
It ain't gonna be easy, but everybody already knows that. If Nebraska can approach their average of 37.5 points per game, and I think there's a fair chance they'll at least be in the neighborhood, they could be in the mix late. I don't think they could outshoot Missouri, but if they can run stride for stride for 2 or 3 quarters then anything can happen.
With the offensive prowess of Missouri, and the defensive struggles of Nebraska, this is a game you have to survive in stages. Worst thing could be a quick Mizzou touchdown to start the game. Best thing could be a quick Mizzou drive that ends in a field goal. That's the sort of game Nebraska has to play at this point.
Bend don't break is a gamble but as the biggest home underdog any one can remember, what have we got to lose?
10/2/2008
The Helu wrinkle is an intersting subplot. If the Huskers can establish an effective rushing attack with Helu I think the game plan suddenly looks much different.
How much does the psychology of Mizzou not winning at Lincoln in 30 years factor into the Tigers game plan? (If Husker’s play competive and are able to hang with Missou into the 4th QTR.) Will Mizzou press to hard to make plays, be overly aggressive and make key mental mistake?
10/2/2008
Nothing to lose!
The burden of proof is on Missouri. They don’t just have to win. They have to win convincingly. No pressure there! We keep it close its a moral victory (for those who believe in that sort of thing) if we actually *gasp* win this thing well then I think Missouri will take a nose dive in the polls like you won’t believe. I think everybody is scared of their horrible defense so far and they should be. I don’t care what Missouri fans are saying eventually the fact that you can’t stop people from scoring will come back to haunt any team. To my knowledge no team ranked 112th in passing defense has ever one the big twelve let along a national title.
I don’t know if NU can win or not. I’m very much on the fence but I will say that if we stuff Chase Daniel on the first series in the game then I really like our chances. If Missouri marches 80 yards and scores easily it will be a long night.
Hopefully we win the toss and Defer. Nothing is more demoralizing to a team then getting the ball first and doing nothing with it.
10/2/2008
The psychology of the past will have zero impact on Mizzou (see CU and KSU last year). The one thing you have to remember about Mizzou’s defense is that when an offense scores as often and as fast as the Tigers have in their first four games, we will lose the TOP battle.
That means NU offense will be on the field a lot and our D on the field a lot. Most traditional teams own the TOP when they win by 30. Mizzou will lose that battle. Remember that Mizzou’s defense started slow last year but ended up the top total defense in Big 12 play. The defense has 10 of 11 back as well.
10/2/2008
Tigger,
Great point about the relative value of the time-of-possession stat. It’s merits watching. But it’s not a driver of the outcome, in my opinion.
For NU to win their possessions must be *productive* (points nearly every trip), with the length of those posssession being an added value.
Of course, turnovers and 3rd down efficiency is crucial on both sides. Those - more than actual TOP - will dictate the outcome, because they extend or create possessions.
10/2/2008
I agree with your comments on the TOP battle and the questions about our running game. I think the way we win this battle is in the short range passing game. Against VT, we saw several 2nd and medium (4-9 yards) where Ganz tried to pick up 30 yards and missed the target, setting up tough 3rd down situations. He needs to learn this week there is nothing qrong with a 4 yard pass on 2nd and 8, or tucking the ball and picking up a couple yards. I can see McNeill and the other TEs (maybe Lucky as well) playing a big role in the short passing game.
Our motto in high school football was “4 more”, meaning we shoot to gain 4 more yards on every play. If we can gain 4 yards per, we will rarely see a 3rd and long, and rarely face 4th down situations.
GBR
10/2/2008
I love the high school reference.
“We’ve gotta get back to the fundmentals!”
—Gene Hackman, Hoosiers—
10/2/2008
“Moral victories” = losing mentality. That’s where mediocrity lives and breathes. On a sports talk show today, a person brought up the fact that Mizzou has scored on nearly every possesion in every game. A stretch there but the implication is noted. Nebraska will have to keep the ball on the ground (if passing early is not effective) to eat up the clock to make it anywhere close. “Keep away”, if you will.
Don’t just look at the statistical passing defense of Mizzou, look at the big picture. Can and will the offensive line for NU hold up to the pass rush of MU?
I’m still thinking that conditioning will play a big part in the way the game pans out.
10/2/2008
It’s about Bo, for me. This isn’t the defense, he wants to face a Missouri with. It’s what he’s got, though. 5th game of the season. After another productive week of practice, the defense should be settled in with itself, as confident as it’s gonna get.
This is a good test of how the defense responds, when the pinball machine scores in short bursts. Will discipline hold up? Especially with the db’s. Especially, with Bo.
It could, all come together Saturday. There’ve been plenty of statistical machines implode, lately and over the years. Missouri’s isn’t the greatest offense of all time. It is one of the best this year and it’ll have chances to be “on schedule” against top defenses, at some point, during the season and it’s bowl. It’s not a perfect offense. Chase always has to play top notch. Always. He’s a credit to college quarterbacking. He’ll well deserve whatever awards and recognitions he’ll get.
That said, I look for Bo to concoct weakside blitzes and pound “La Tigre” like a cheap flank steak!
10/2/2008
We will need to find a running game for sure. Could Helu be our answer? Is Christenson ready to rumble? At the very least, we need an effective short passing game. Lucky on the roll out, screen, quick passes to our wide outs, any high percentage passes that are can act as a running play. However, Brandon, I agree with you too…if the running game is not working, let’s go to what works - the passing game. However, please throw in some draws and screens to keep the pressure of Ganz.
We will have to be on the plus side of the turnover battle. I said this about V-Tech last week. And sure enough, the turnovers were the difference in the game. We have to win this battle 3-1 to even have a chance to win the game.
On Defense we HAVE to get pressure on Chase AND try to mix up our coverages. That’s a tall order for a young secondary that has been blowing coverages. In my opinion, if Pelini and the D (I wanted to say Blackshirts) can hold Mizzou to under 40 points he will have done all we can ask. And hopefully that will give us a fighting chance.