Oklahoma State, Oregon Light Up the Scoreboard
Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, Oklahoma State @ Oregon, San Diego Qualcomm Stadium, Dec. 30, 8 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
The name of this game will be offense. Oklahoma State gains 489 yards/game and 41 points/game. Oregon gains 478 yards/game and 41 points/game. Of that yardage, the Cowboys rush 256 and the Ducks rush 277. After Missouri's close game last night, I'm hoping to hear analysts shut up about how the Big 12 may not be that good offensively, but it could be that our defenses are bad. One of these teams will have to stop their opponent at least two times in order to win this game. OK State has the defense to quiet those commentators and win this game.
We know how good each running game is, but on the rush defense side of the ball, both of these teams rank in the top 30 in the country. Oregon is holding opponents to 119 rush yards/game and Oklahoma State is stopping teams to the tune of 123. Too bad that these teams can't seem to stop the pass. Over 260 yards/game allowed in the air for both. After all that, they are allowing over 25 points/game which leads me to believe that both of these teams should score over 30 in this game.
The name of the game may change to Zac Robinson. I think the Oklahoma State passing game is underrated - Robinson is the fourth most efficient quarterback in the country. He's thrown twice as many touchdowns as Oregon's QB, but Jeremiah Masoli was originally the third stringer at the beginning of the season. He's had a good streak recently, but Robinson is a quality dual threat and could potentially shred a couple of defenders.
The special teams edge also goes to the Cowboys. They are number two in net punting and three in returns. And on kickoffs, they average 24 yards/return and have scored two touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin at Missouri showed how important the return game in last night's win over Northwestern.
What Oregon has going for them is a few standout defenders. They have two DB's with 4 interceptions a piece and another back with 61 solo tackles. Two defensive lineman combined have 20 sacks this season – Nick Reed is the number two sack man, and number four tackle for loss guy, and the best fumble recoverer in the NCAA. Jairus Byrd has the third most total broken up passes. And to top it off, many of these guys are forcing fumbles that they happily recover.
Interesting stat of the game: Oklahoma State is 76% on fourth downs this year. Numbers like that could be the difference between a last minute scoring drive or the victory formation for Oregon. I give the slight edge to the Cowboys in a 38-35 battle.
12/30/2008
Tom - you are a prophet! Yeah, you didn’t pick the winner, but you pretty much nailed down how this game went down.
Kansas City, MO
12/31/2008
Masoli was amazing in the game. I would not have predicted that the Cowboys would allow him to run all over them. He was bowling over defenders like a running back, not a QB. I suspected he might have a good game because of his recent success, but Oklahoma State just looked like such a good team at times this year I thought they could pull it off. Oh well, Oregon deserved the win.