High on Northwestern? You Must Be High!
Given how badly things ended for Nebraska in 2012, it's understandable that they would find themselves towards the bottom of the national rankings. What's less understandable is how a team that the Huskers beat on the road and outpaced in the Big Ten by two games would be ranked seven to eight spots higher than the Big Red.
Measuring Up
You don't have to argue against Northwestern being ranked. The Wildcats went 10-3. They beat some decent to good teams in Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Michigan State and Mississippi State. Still, in addition to losing at home to the Huskers, they fared worse against every common opponent except Iowa. They beat Iowa in Evanston by 11. Nebraska beat the Hawkeyes by 6 in Iowa City.
Opponent NE Margin NW Margin Difference
Penn State +9 -11 NE by 20
Minnesota +24 +8 NE by 16
Iowa +6 +11 NW by 5
Michigan +14 -7 NE by 21
Michigan State +4 +3 NE by 1
Head to Head +1 -1 NE by 1
Average NE by 9
Points of Contrast
Obviously, the Wildcats didn't outrank the Huskers based on their head-to-head game or even based on what happened against common opponents. It seems clear that any difference in the rankings is based on the rest of the schedule. Northwestern went 7-0 against the rest of their schedule and the Huskers went 4-4.
But here's the issue. Nebraska would be favored in all seven games Northwestern played against other teams. Whether it was Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, an FCS school, or all of those other teams with losing records that the Wildcats played, you'd expect the Huskers to come out on top.
As for the Husker losses, the Wildcats would not be favored against Georgia or Ohio State and they would not be expected to beat Wisconsin twice (probably not even once). Maybe Northwestern could have beaten UCLA on the road, but they would hardly have been much of a favorite to do so.
Get Real
On balance, there's virtually no basis for believing that Northwestern was better. You could maybe make the argument that the Wildcats were playing better at the end of the year. Then again, do you think NW could really stay within 14 points of Georgia on a not quite neutral field? Me neither.
So this is a nice moment for the Wildcats, but that's all it is. Next season what goes around will come around. Northwestern will play Ohio State and Wisconsin while Nebraska gets a pass.
Helena, Montana
1/9/2013
NU offense will score enough points to win any game. Our problem is that our defense gives up even more points. NU needs Linemen, big, fast, linemen able to play 4 qtrs. Sure, we’re trying to recruit them, but we’re talking about recruiting HS players here that aren’t even through their growing stage and it takes years to get them up to speed to play in the big league. It’s bot like they’re joining a great lineup and learning to play from experienced players, we’re throwing them into the breach and expecting them to sink or swim.
1/9/2013
I can’t believe Pelini didn’t capitalize on Suh. The opportunity is gone now. He should have been out getting D linemen after that. He squandered the opportunity and now the cupboard is bare.
Every great team has a dominate defensive line…I thought he knew that being a defensive genius and all. Where is the defense now?
We do have a couple 4 star DE’s coming so that’s good, and we ‘be recruited well at linebacker, but we need D tackles BAD! Let’s hope there are still more quality guys to be had at this point. Maybe next years defense will surprise us.
1/9/2013
We will start ouy at 25 and move our wat back up to top 10 by late season. Then loose conf game and bowl game. And be back at 25 again… Repeat
1/9/2013
Early pre-season rankings have us 20 to 24. From now until the third game, you will see updated experts ranking us based on last year’s Freshman-Junior class, completely ignoring the incoming Freshmen, R-Fresh, and Jucos, basically reiterating what they and others have said before until you’ve read the same thing 15 times. No one’s ranking will mean a thing until about the ninth game.
1/9/2013
PE
As of today Collins is rated a four star by Scout.. have faith my friend.. Our staff went after him because of great senior season apparently scout believes they did a good job of evaluation as well Suh was a 3-4 star depending on what site you went to ..
1/10/2013
Newby IS N Terrell that is .. Two new Newbys and they are both studs .. Great News.. WElcome to the Family Newby
Coupling him with Adam Taylor our RB class has to be in the top few in the country.. Both very complimentary backs to each other.. Heck we might not even have to throw the ball in a couple of years, too darn bad that we’ve got some great WR coming in with this class as well..I kid but this is a heck of class.. I dont care what the haters say..
Top QB - Check
TWo GREAT RB - CHeck
WR talent with possibility of more or two more!! CHECK
3 Great Lineman - with hopefully a few additions left!! CHeck
TE- One good one, Two hopefulls in Vandenburg and Carter ( both better than Sandland on film)
DT- *4 Star Collins, Maurice - Me gusta Check
DE- Nater and Juco ready to contribute Check
LB- Three guys who had a whos who list of offers- Check
S- Wow ... McWilson, Singleton, Gerry .. CHECK
And throw in a top 3 Long Snapper..Check
Only position we didnt really address so far is CB, with WIllis and Joseph yet to decide..
Hartford SD
1/10/2013
For the last 5 years its been the same (NU has picked up some top recruites, this year we will finish) blah,blah. NW is ranked higher than NU cause they didnt let teams rack up scores like 70,63 on them. Keep buyin into the juco hype. Give me a break
1/10/2013
Admiral
What Juco hype? We have one guy from the Juco level and he is at the very least depth at the position.. Also Vandeburg had his scholarship offer pulled for what ever reason so That Might be it for kids from the Juco Level.. Almost guessing they must have found a TE transfer or feel either good about the possibiltys of adding a highschool TE or the class is pretty much filled up as they see it.
1/10/2013
Welcome aboard the USS Negative, headed by Admiral Dipshit.
Michigan
1/11/2013
Any prognosis on the Top QB’s (Stanton) blown out knee in this class?