2007 Opponent Preview…Wake Forest
Predictions about Wake Forest for 2007 run the gamut from first place to last place in the ACC's Atlantic Division and every spot in between. Raw talent? Not there. But that was true a year ago when they won the ACC. The Demon Deacons pulled out a lot of close games to shock the nation. Can they do it again?
Riley Skinner lead the ACC in pass efficiency and he'll have much of his offensive line back as well as running back Micah Andrews (provided his knee ligament tear is not a lingering issue).
But for every bounce that went their way in 2006, it could easily go the opposite way in 2007. In fact, an 0-2 start seems likely. The Demon Deacons open at Boston College and then host Nebraska in one of the smallest stadiums in the country (that's sure to also have its share of Husker fans). Things could pick up from there as those are arguably the two toughest games on their slate. It also doesn't hurt that they'll again face the three teams from the ACC's Coastal division that finished with losing records in 2006 and Boston College will face the three winning teams. But this season they must navigate the ACC without some standout defenders in linebacker Jon Abbate and safeties Josh Gattis and Patrick Ghee that graduated. They also just lost a projected starter at linebacker for the season to academic trouble.
Last year guaranteed the Deacons won't sneak up on anyone, but another division title is possible (though perhaps unlikely). It's hard to imagine an ACC championship game victory, but that was true a year ago. So while Wake figures to be among the first teams to drop out of the national championship hunt, they might well climb back into the ACC race and take another step forward in establishing their program.
7/18/2007
Please help me list the bounces that went Wakes way.
1)Lose starting qb in first game
2)Starting RB does an ACL
3)All rb’s hurt, run WR at RB
4)starting LB hurt last three games
7/18/2007
Jim,
1) No one forecast Wake’s opening day starting QB to lead the league in pass efficiency then Skinner wins the job by chance and plays at a (2nd team) all-conference level. That’s about as lucky as the St. Louis Rams finding Kurt Warner on their bench when Trent Green went down back in 1999. That QB injury was good luck masquerading as bad luck.
2-3) RB’s always get hurt, it’s in the job description. That’s why so many teams use committees, because the punishment in college football is too much. Even Darren McFadden at Arkansas (the guy who was the runner-up for the Heisman last year) had a guy behind him in Felix Jones who rushed for 1,000 yards. The Huskers had so many running backs get hurt last year, they pulled a safety over from the defense (one who’d been playing) for depth in the Cotton Bowl. No one called that unlucky. Running back is the Bic lighter position in football, that is, disposable.
4) Losing one defensive starter for 3 games is hardly unlucky. I defy you to find me too many teams that don’t lose at least one defensive player for 3 games in a season. The Huskers lost Zack Bowman (a starting cornerback) for the entire season last year. As much as that hurt, they were still lucky that other guys didn’t miss much time.
7/18/2007
Steve,
Do you call winning close games “lucky bounces”? You don’t think it has anything to do with the actual team whether or not they close out close games? Because I can’t think of any other lucky bounces for Wake.
Also, I don’t think it is as common as you think for a team to lose 3 rb’s in one season.
7/19/2007
Kevin,
Blocking a field goal happens seldom enough in college football, that any time you get one (especially as badly as Wake needed it against Duke) you have to feel fortunate. The Deacons were outgained in that game.
If you told a team that their only chance to win was to kick three field goals of fifty yards or more (as Wake did against NC State) you wouldn’t love the odds of pulling it off. The Deacons were outgained in that game.
A blocked punt for a touchdown (again a rare play in college football) was the difference against North Carolina (plus Wake enjoyed the huge benefit of facing pick machine Joe Dailey). The Deacons were outgained in that game.
The Deacons were outgained by 150 yards by Boston College yet managed to win by a touchdown in a game where their backup running back broke off an 81-yard run (again, probably a good thing that injuries helped him get on the field).
It’s not hard (for a non-Wake fan) to imagine the Deacons losing four games where they were outgained and end up 6-6 and hoping for a bowl bid. Great for the Wake faithful that things played out as they did, but having four “against the odds” performances (five when you consider they were outgained by UConn and had a long INT return for a TD) doesn’t bode well for putting together another 10-2 season. Having the lowest-rated recruiting classes in the ACC four out of the last five years doesn’t help either.
But hey, if you want to believe that the recipe for success includes being routinely outgained, that’s your prerogative. But I’m guessing coach Grobe hasn’t offered that up as a team goal for the season to again be outgained by their opponents.
7/19/2007
Steve
Just being outgained doesn’t mean that you were outplayed. In most of those games, Wake was ahead and the opposition started to air it out more in order to catch up (especially the NC State/Uconn/UNC games). Wake’s defensive approach was/is a bend don’t break philosphy which results in lots of yards but few points for opponents. Wake was willing to give yards to gain time off the clock.
Recruiting a kicker that can make 50 yard field goals isn’t luck. Having back-ups come into starting roles and succeed isn’t luck. Getting interceptions isn’t luck. Blocking kicks isn’t luck. That is all effort and coaching to maximize the player’s abilities.
And Wake faced VaTech (and lost) last year. So we are not facing the three worst teams from the Atlantic division AGAIN this year. We are avoiding them for the first time this year.
I don’t think you are going to find a reasonable Wake fan that thinks Wake will repeat as champs but to dismiss last year as entirely luck is a mistake.
I look forward to Husker fans coming to Winston and hopefully a good game will occur.
Best Wishes
Drew
Chicago, IL
7/19/2007
Not that Steve needs any help backing up his position here, but Sunday Morning Quarterback, a site that many consider the best site for football analysis on the planet, shares Steve’s assessment.
I’m *really* looking forward to our road trip to Wake. Oh, and if anyone wants to go to any other WF games this year, let me know. I’ve got season tickets. :)
7/19/2007
Jason,
That website is not that well regarded to most people. It even has spelling and grammar issues. I do not and would not place any weight in what they say there.
Second off, I wouldn’t be so sure about your season tickets until they are sent out in Aug. The WF ticket office and athletic department are working hard to prevent this from happening (opposing teams buying season tickets). We have a smaller stadium as stated above and I just really caution anyone about counting your chickens before they hatch.
Our defense was the #2 scoring defense last year and in the top 25 nationally. We would get out gained but we did not let people score that often. Furthermore, as evidence of our player development and depth, our back-up safety and lb both had great performances during the FSU (30-0).
The blocked FG is a lucky break but the long FG’s are not lucky, the INT’s are not lucky, the long run in the BC game was not lucky (BTW, it was our WR that made that run and he started), even the blocked punt was not lucky. Alphonso Smith made the play in the UNC game and if you watched the Orange Bowl, he partially blocked one and almost got another, thus it is a skill of his.
We had a few bad breaks too. The injuries stated above. We were using a WR and 5-th string RB for our running game for a while. Our two defensive leaders were out for a few games at the same time (FSU game being one of them). I know injuries happen but remove two of your best players and team leaders and tell me that that is not bad luck.
Anyways, playing sound football and having skill will create luck. So even if we do have some lucky things happen, it is because we are in a position for them to occur. The blocked kick is a great example.
7/19/2007
Drew/James,
Nebraska won 9 games or more every year from 1969-2001. What you won’t find if you look back at the scores and statistics in those years is a lot of seasons where Nebraska won 4 games by a touchdown or less (in fact, you might not find any) nor will you find seasons where the Huskers were outgained over the course of the entire season.
Why? Because too much can change on a single call or a single play in football. Teams that win consistently win BIG consistently. Put another way, the best way to win a game is not to get into one. A good chunk of Wake’s wins were in doubt until late in the game. Now Wake will sneak up on no one and they’ll be without a number of the defensive starters from a unit that carried the team last season. The phrase “Wake doesn’t rebuild, they reload” is not one I’ve heard too often, have you?
Wake defied the laws of football for much of 2006. I’ll grant you that they worked hard to get there. But what we saw was probably the absolute ceiling of what that team can achieve (as evidenced by the 4-0 record in games decided by 7 pts or less). Most expect gravity to kick in and Wake to play much more in line with their talent as they have throughout their long history.
If anybody wants to give me an over/under of 10 wins for Wake this year, I’d bet heavy on the “under”.
7/19/2007
You are right, James. Well-reasoned arguments and statements mean *nothing* when the grammar is wrong. [Sirens going off] Well, there are grammar and spelling police now, just in time to save the day.
Big Red Network (and SMQ) are BLOG sites. Not the New York Times. Please understand the distinction.
You are right about blocked kicks. They are not luck. There is skill and planning. They are, however, very rare. And, when needed to win ball games, they are considered fortunate at best. I contend that NU was “lucky” to beat Pitt 7-6 two years ago, because we needed a *blocked kick* to do it.
And injuries occur on every team. They are s universal truth of football. Teams are fortunate when only one or two guys go down. So, nobody wants to hear how “un-lucky” WF was with injuries. Every team in America could say that, but most don’t.
Good luck protecting your stadium from the Red folks, btw. You think Wake is the first school to try those methods?
7/19/2007
“Second off, I wouldn’t be so sure about your season tickets until they are sent out in Aug. The WF ticket office and athletic department are working hard to prevent this from happening (opposing teams buying season tickets). We have a smaller stadium as stated above and I just really caution anyone about counting your chickens before they hatch.”
I am pretty sure if the athletic office will sell the season tickets to buyers. The number of season tickets sold drives so many more things then just “filling the stadium”, sponsorships and donations to name a few. You are ignorant to think otherwise.
You can’t stop the red from invading your stadium. If you think the ticket office will assist you in this effort, you are crazy.
Money is green no matter what football team you cheer for.
7/19/2007
So what you’re saying is the Wake fans don’t agree with the Husker fans? NO WAY!!! This will be an interesting web site as that game gets closer. Huskers 38 Wake 10.
7/19/2007
We arent saying that the ticket office wont sell to yall…we are saying that priority will go to those who dont have a zip code in NE. The closer a shipping address is to Winston the more likely they will get tickets over someone from Omaha. Try to follow along.
7/19/2007
Paul,
They call it the “Husker Nation” for a reason. For example, we at the BRN got our tix through a friend of mine who’s a Wake alum (and generous donor to his alma mater). We’ll have our tix. And that zip code system won’t keep out the many Huskers on the East Coast and around the nation. I agree, sending your request from Lincoln or Omaha moves you to the back of the line, but understand that Husker fans are everywhere so simply locking out zips that begin 68—- isn’t going to keep the hordes at bay.
7/19/2007
Grant - you crack me up. It reminds me of the headline and t-shirt from The Onion ... “The sports team from my local area is far superior to the sports team from your local area.” :-)
Paul - yeah, we heard ya the first time. Maybe you are hearing us now, too. That…won’t…work. Ask USC, Notre Dame, Pitt and others who did it. Beyond the local Husker factor Steve mentioned, it’s called the Internet. People sell tickets online. And, as Katie said - green is the color that matters there.
7/19/2007
WFU beat Florida State 30-0.When did the Corncobbs beat Florida State 30-0 ?
Oh,I forgot Nebraska always got their arse kicked by the Seminoles. WFU won despite the ball taking some bad bouncing. Lost staring QB and and 3 starting RBs. Please whoever wrote the article never watched Deac football. Nebraska has been a total flop for several years,playing in a weak division of the Weak 10. So I look the the little Red, to have stumble on Tobacco Road in the Fall.
7/19/2007
Steve,
Let me make sure I understand you correctly: having a great field goal kicker is lucky. Blocking one punt the entire year, and one field goal the entire year is extremely lucky (I’m sure no other teams do that once a year, VT must be the luckiest team in the world). Having a WR (not a backup RB as you say) run an 81 yard end around against BC is extremely lucky. Facing a bad team and quarterback is lucky (because no other NCAA team plays against bad quarterbacks).
I would consider these lucky as well: Playing against a quarterback who has 4 turnovers in the first half and still only winning in OT (Kansas?). And didn’t Nebraska block a field goal against A&M that would have killed their chance at winning the Big 12 North? Without those two wins any Non-Husker fan could see you weren’t that far away from a mere 7-7.
Everything aside, here’s to a good game in Winston and hopefully Wake can continue to get lucky…
7/19/2007
Real Deal,
Last year’s version was a vastly inferior Florida State team to past editions. That’s probably why Wake Forest is 3-21-1 all time against Florida State. I was in Vegas when I WATCHED the game and actually pocketed some cash because I bet on the Deacons.
Nebraska lost starting QB Tommie Frazier for most of the 1994 season, and still won the national championship. The Huskers relied on their fourth-string running back for much of the 1995 season, many consider that team the greatest college football team ever. Injuries (especially to running backs) don’t matter near as much as Wake fans would like to pretend they do. Everybody team needs at least 3 running backs minimum to get through a season and using your fourth is hardly a rare sight.
Kevin,
Wake’s kicker was 1/3 on kicks over 50 yards going into the NC State game yet all of a sudden he goes 3/3. I’d call that lucky. If he’d gone 3/3 before going 1/3 his season numbers would look the same, but the outcome would be very different. That’s the lucky part. Same thing with the blocked punt. Yes, teams can get them, and by working on it they can get a couple more over the course of a season, but getting a block when you have to have it is lucky. It was for Nebraska against Texas A&M and it was for Wake against Duke. Then look at the % of the time that an end around goes for a touchdown (let alone 81 yards). It’s got to be less than 10% if not less than 5% and yet it happened in a game where Wake needed it badly. That’s lucky.
I suppose NU was lucky that KU turned the ball over 4 times, but then that’s hardly out of character for the Jayhawks. They averaged 3 a game. So that’s one extra. Nebraska had three lost fumbles in the game when they averaged two turnovers a game. So that’s one extra too. Pretty much a wash. But the Huskers were definitely lucky to get out of there with a win after they let the Jayhawks hang around for so long.
Yes, Nebraska was a couple of close victories from being 7-7. They were also heartbreakingly close to victories over Texas and Auburn, which would have made the Huskers 11-3. Which is why 9-5 is probably about what the same team would produce if the season were repeated. Most people don’t think the same Wake team would repeat 11-3 which is just one of the reasons they are being picked by many to finish in the bottom half of their division in the ACC.
7/19/2007
Steve,
Swank was 1st team All-American by SI and FINISHED the year 5-7 on +50 yarders. We were unlucky in two of our losses. Clemson came up with a freak play in the 4th quarter when we were up 17-3 and about to kick a field goal, and we had two controversial fumble calls go against us in the Orange Bowl deep in UL territory. As far as the 81 yard end around, it was a big play, as all teams have big plays sometime. It is unfair to call any big play “lucky” just because it came from WF. Wake was just as close to going 13-1 as it was to going 9-5. UNC obviously was a worse team than us and Dailey cemented that fact (its not luck their QB sucked), BC really wasn’t that close, they were on the 50 as time ran out and we intercepted, so I wouldn’t call those swing games. I’ll concede Duke( Our true freshman’s first start ever), GT, and State as really close swing games, but thats all. Getting outgained is not a big deal, we thrived on turnovers and redzone defense (highly ranked nationally in both these categories).
All in all, I just feel like if our exact season had occurred to a different team who doesn’t have as horrendous of a football tradition as WF, then people wouldn’t constantly talk about all the supposed bounces for us (while completely ignoring every bounce against us). I suppose the only way to change that is to have continued success, and I am hopeful Grobe will lead us in that direction, and establish a program anywhere near the level of NU’s.
7/19/2007
Swank’s 5-7 is impressive. Wake is still lucky that neither of those misses came against NC St.
And now you want to call the Clemson game a close loss? I guess I get to say the same about Oklahoma State. Puh-leeze. Clemson outgained Wake by nearly a 2-1 margin. Wake’s “bend but don’t break” defense, bent to the tune of 428 yards. You can take away the 7 points from Clemson got on the fumble return and they still win. You want to award the Deacons 3 points for a 51-yard field goal they didn’t kick on top of that? You’re still tied with a team that’s moving the ball with ease on Wake’s defense. So the fumbles are controversial against Louisville, now you want the benefit of the doubt that both go for touchdowns (or that you get one, plus a 2-pt. conversion plus another field goal)? That’s a stretch. That would then make the wins over Syracuse and UConn close ones too then.
It’s not just tradition hurting the perception of Wake. It’s the recruiting. Texas, USC, and Florida started bringing in the top classes in the country and lo and behold, they start winning national titles. Wake brings in kids that no major power wants and we’re supposed to expect them to consistently win because they managed one good season?
Nebraska had a pretty decent season in 2003 with largely mediocre talent but it was sandwiched between two bad seasons. Anyone can have a magical season or two (remember Northwestern in the mid 1990’s), but talent matters over the long haul. Until Wake gets kids that other schools want, or manages to consistently put together winning seasons, no one will believe. It’s nothing against Wake, it’s just the teams that win the most titles are the ones with the blue chippers.
7/19/2007
Steve,
10 point swing in the Clemson game in the 4th quarter (70 percent chance Swank hits that 50 yarder based on his stats), but more importantly it forces time off the clock instead of an insta-score for CU. Clemson would be down 20-3 having to drive the length of the field just to get within two scores in the 4th. I think we were MORE unlucky that game, than we were LUCKY in most of our wins. In the State game we just had to stop a bad team on one drive, same with UNC, in the Clemson game we had to crumble on so many levels. Even Clemson fans concede they should have lost this game. Also, I don’t know if you’ve heard of a thing called momentum. We came apart against UL in the end when it was clear we were done and they got a garbage score. We were up in the 4th quarter and Swank missed a 40 yarder, I would call that unlucky also since hes almost deadly from further out than that. SU and UCONN never lead against us and never had momentum. Its easy to nitpick every play that got Wake a win, instead of giving them any credit.
Wake has talent on their team, they can’t compete with the top tier schools YET, but our redshirting system helps us immensely to compete, as well as Grobe’s misdirection offense. Last year was the first year Grobe had all his players go through his system. We still get fast guys. Marion (the guy who got the lucky 81 yd end around) is an ACC track champion. FSU and Miami have shown recently that 5-star players don’t mean everything, as their teams were LOADED with elite talent and they were mid-level ACC teams last year. I think coaching is way more important, and I know Wake is not a great or even good program yet, but so many are absolutely flippant regarding the greatest football season in Wake history that you must expect Wake fans to defend their team.
7/19/2007
Jim, Real Deal, Drew, James and especially Kevin
You did a wonderful job defending your team! I watched one of your “wild ones”, I don’t remember which. Louisville? So, I’m not as familiar with your team as this fine BRN staff, who I don’t think draw a salary yet for their amazing efforts.
I’m glad Nebraska faces Nevada before the Wake Forrest game, allowing the Cornhuskers to ratchet up “physicality” in time for the Demon Deacons.
That said, you had a wonderful season, last year. One to prize and treasure.
It looked like you had a good run “D” last year, in a below average running conference. Nebraska’s ability to run will be dramatically better than than in the ‘05 game. Just about everything else is improved, too.
Guys, your offense was average in what was probably the worst offensive year the ACC will have, for a while, at least. Balanced though, which is good.
Bottom line, you’d have to keep up the T/O ratio and have the best offensive game you had last year (against Liberty). Neither of which is likely to happen. It also seems your crowd noise won’t be a major distraction, allowing for clear play calling and line calls.
I’m not thinking blowout, that’s not really in Callahan’s character (not yet). I’m thinking 28-17, with Callahan playing it “vanilla”, the week befor SC.
I hope Wake Forrest has another successful year and more to follow!
7/20/2007
Kevin,
Most Nebraska fans remember an Iowa State coach who famously redshirted every member of his first recruiting class. They never even made it to a bowl. A redshirt year can do wonders for players physically and mentally (you won’t find many offensive linemen that don’t redshirt out of high school) but it’s not going to raise a kid’s potential.
Recruiting is all about potential and the consensus is that the kids Wake is getting have less upside. In fact, one reason Grobe can redshirt so heavily is that there’s little chance his guys will leave early for the pros. Programs who get NFL talent won’t waste a year a kid could be playing if he’s just going to bolt to the pros early anyway.
Believe me, we understand where Wake fans are coming from. We scoffed at the Texas and OU fans who crowed about their recruiting while Nebraska was bringing in middling classes. We said the rankings don’t matter, that NU develops kids better, that NU coaches better, and on and on. But in the end, the talent these programs brought in overwhelmed. Last year was the first time Nebraska looked close in talent to the better teams in the conference since the last of Osborne’s recruits graduated in 2001.
The Wake Forests and Northwesterns of college football can have their day in the sun (What’s that quote from ‘White Men Can’t Jump’?) but that’s all they’ll get until they start bringing in premier talent. Until then, the best they can hope for is to be the Purdue or Texas Tech of the ACC. A spoiler at times, but not a real contender.
7/21/2007
Not these Wake guys again: puh-leeze! I thought we smacked you guys around enough months ago.
I’ll read the posts later—maybe—but this game won’t be close:
NE 41, Wake 17
Keller is going to shread you guys and the D will dominate.
9/2/2007
Uh, hmmmmm….any Wake losers out there?! We’re ready here for a smack down este semana!
Pretty quiet out there from ya’ll—did I say losers?
C’mon bring it, don’t hide out this week….