The Global Warming of College Football
6 comments so far
March 3, 2010 by
You've heard the argument before: The power in college football has shifted to schools in warmer climates. They have a built in recruiting advantage in the weather and, outside the football realm, more desirable locations that attract more residents which then result in bigger recruiting bases and more players to choose from.
As a Nebraska fan this is a familiar and potentially frightening theory, but is it true? I finally heard it one too many times the other day to simply take at face value so I decided to at least take a cursory look.
The idea was simple: 1) Take all the NCAA recognized national champions since 1940 (AP Poll started in '36) from this list, 2) Look up the average yearly temperature for the school's respective cities using Weatherbase, and 3) Average the "temperature of champions" by decade to see if it was trending one way or the other.
I'll be the first to admit that it's a brutish approach that in no way represents all the vagaries inherent to the question but at least it's a start.
So what does the data say? Over the past seven decades the average temperature of a national champion has gotten warmer, from a low average of 50.37 degrees in the '40s to the high of 66.06 degrees for the decade just completed. The spreadsheet is here if you want to look at the data, but here's how it looks in graph form:
You'll notice that the average temperature has risen pretty steadily with one exception: the '90s. Nebraska had something to do with that. Simply beating Miami in the 1995 Orange Bowl was enough to make this decade slightly "colder" than the previous one. If the 'Canes win, it too is slightly "warmer."
Since 1997, where Nebraska and Michigan--both sub 52 degree schools--split the national title, only Ohio State has won a national title in what you would generally refer to as a cold weather climate. Based on this data, there is at least some basis for the "college football power is shifting south" argument.
But is it a trend that will continue? That's the $1,000 question. The problem with using a decade as the time frame is that the numbers are easily influenced by dynasties. Army won three straight titles in the '40s and Notre Dame won three more. That cools things off. Miami heated up the '80s.
In the 2000's, only one team with an average yearly temperature below 60 degrees won a title. Was that because traditional cold weather powers like Nebraska, Michigan, and Notre Dame all struggled at various points or did they struggle because college football is warming up?
There isn't a good answer to that chicken-egg conundrum, but at least we now know this: The average college football champion has come from warmer and warmer places each of the past four decades except for one. The good news is that that one decade was Nebraska's best so I'm not quite ready to say the Huskers are being literally left out in the cold just yet.
The bad news is I'm a lot more willing to entertain the idea than I was two days ago.
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Pat Mar 03 10
Now this is proof that Al Gore is right! Well, it appears logical, doesn't it? And yet, your gut tells you something just isn't quite right with the conclusions reached from this sparse data. One of the funniest articles I've read recently. Now don't you greenies get all upset over this.
tom Mar 03 10
Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
Tim Mar 03 10
the best evidence that this is true is to look at the last decade. the only cold weather school is Ohio State, and they beat Miami. Also look at recruiting as of late. There are plenty of top tier recruits gong south to play, when years ago they would hvae stayed home.
Bob Mar 03 10
I don't doubt that the warmer climate schools have had great success. That is mainly due to the fact that is where the poulation is increasing the fastest. The larger the population base, the more D1 athletes there are. But, Pelini can get NU back to a better record than the 00's. How? Better coaching, national recruiting, and quite avid fan support. Ohio State and Penn State have been able to buck this "warming" trend. Further, as global warming increases, the southern schools will have to wear 2 inch thick insulators on the soles of their feet, and suffer heat blisters when they fall on the turf. Who would play there?
Exiled_in_VT Mar 03 10
I would like to see a second series of data in that graph representing the average temperature at each campus competing in Division I football. I suspect it would also be rising, signifying that if every school in D-I had an equal chance of winning the title, the chart of champion's temperatures would be rising irrespective of any difference in quality of programs in the north and south.
Greg Morrow Mar 03 10
Fortunately, we've been due for an ice age, for some thousands of years, so...
"Just be the alternative, baby."
Like, be the oasis from L.A.'s issues (horrors).
Be a place where the HC can promise with credibility, to a player's parents, that their kid will be put on track, with top notch counseling assistance, to get his degree. He'll be expected to, coerced even.
As this program continues to be rebuilt the right way, through foundational recruiting and elite coaching, it won't matter how cold and windy it is. It'll be packed with players who have a more unified purpose, with personal goals in sync with the larger ones.
Especially, as it keeps evolving into a more all weather offensive team.