Should the Surge in Missouri Recruiting Concern Nebraska Fans?
14 comments so far
December 22, 2009 by
Recruiting matters. Anyone who follows college football knows that. But do recruiting rankings? Even if they were 100% accurate in ranking prospects, they can't tell you who will fail to qualify, who will transfer, who will become injured, or whether a standout walk-on will join a team (e.g. Alex Henery). And they are far from 100% accurate in evaluating talent. Nor do they even agree with one another. Curtis Carter is the 19th best wide receiving prospect in the country according to Rivals.com. He's 140th according to Scout.com. That means one or both sites have got to be way off in their evaluation of Carter. But if you choose to trust those sites anyway, then Missouri is in position to bring in the best recruiting class in the Big 12 North in 2010 and their best in years. That would be concerning when you consider what they've done with even lesser classes.
One obvious question when thinking about these rankings is to ask how predictive have they been in the past. Colorado had the highest rated classes in 2002 and 2003. They won Big 12 North division titles in 2002, 2004 and 2005. Kansas State was second best in 2002 and last in 2003 and went on to win the North in 2003. Rivals called KSU's class best in 2004, but the Wildcats have failed to win even a share of the Big 12 North title since 2003. Nebraska was first in recruiting every year from 2005 to 2009 according to Scout.com. That yielded a Big 12 North title in 2006 and 2009 and a runner-up finish in 2008 as well as a near miss in 2005 (see LeKevin Smith vs. Texas Tech). But it certainly flies in the face of what took place in 2007. Mizzou was a top three recruiter in the division from 2003-2009 (except for 2006), and parlayed that into division titles in 2007 and 2008 with a runner-up finish in 2006 and 2009. Iowa State had classes in the bottom half of the rankings every year 2002-2009 yet managed runner-up finishes in 2004 and 2005. Kansas was rated low in recruiting from 2002-2005 yet really performed in 2007 and to a lesser extent 2008. The Jayhawks best classes came in 2006 and 2009 yet 2009 saw the Jayhawks finish dead last. So while you can see some relationship between rankings and performance, it's hardly a perfect one.
So instead, let's look at the actual players Missouri is recruiting. Quarterback Tyler Gabbert gets a four-star ranking from Rivals.com. Does anybody want to take odds on whether he'll have a season as good as the one two-star recruit Joe Ganz had in 2008? Or for that matter, whether he'll ever start a game at Missouri? MU head coach Gary Pinkel may not because he's also recruited another quarterback that's two inches taller and 28 lbs. heavier than Gabbert. Is Missouri's class better because they have a quarterback that they won't use? They've got a nice class of wide receivers, but they also grabbed eight players that Scout.com rates as two-star prospects. Sure it's great to have 23 commitments, but wouldn't you rather have a higher average star rating?
Missouri will have one of the better classes in the North any way you look at it. But they haven't exactly supplanted Texas as a recruiting powerhouse just yet. They've shown they can get production from receivers, but whether that translates into wins is still a big question. On paper, it looks like the same old Missouri.
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Matt Dec 22 09
The problem is for Mizzery is that they still have Pinkel coaching for them.
If Pinkel leaves and a competent coach replaces him, then I would be worried about the decent talent they have. Then again, that worry may be short-lived depending on said replacement coaches' ability to recruit...which will continue to be restricted more and more as Nebraska gets better year by year...
James Moore Dec 22 09
Not sure if Missouri's class at the moment is that much better than ours, if it is at all. Missouri is going to be a good offensive team but vulnerable to good defensive lineplay. I don't think anyone in Husker Nation should be concerned with Coach Pelini's ability to gameplan a 10 spread. Against Missouri and Texas this year they shut it down cold. We will be able to execute a defensive gameplan against a Missouri or Texas with the existing personnel we have for the next few years. The defense is young and their best football is still yet to be played. Missouri for the forseeable future will be a team that will fill the air with footballs at the expense of establishing themselves on the run. Lacking an overall balance resulting in a scheme-prone attack and vulnerable to a physical, aggressive defensive push up front. . .
We will be able to develop defensive players better than anyone in the conference, this year proved that beyond any shadow of a doubt. The question becomes if we can do the same offensively. Do that and we own the Big 12 North and can punch our ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game every year. I feel fairly confident by as early as the end of the next season we will be recruiting head and shoulders above anyone in the Big 12 North. Unlike Missouri we have a tremendously healthy situation financially. Unlike Missouri we do not have to build a new stadium to compete with other big name programs. Unlike Missouri we do not have to take a back seat to anyone in terms of facilities. Unlike Missouri we do not have to build a tradition or storied history. . .
Tyler Hughes Dec 22 09
Your best quote was this: Is Missouri's class better because they have a quarterback that they won't use? I was never a believer in Tyler (despite his superior name) or that he was committed. In fact, I was more frustrated to lose Blaine though I recovered quickly with Cody Green's pledge.
Matt: don't be a hater. Pinkel had MU in the hunt for 2006-2009 as Steve points out. That's far superior than years ago.
I'm interested to see if Taylor or a rebuilt Kody Spano can challenge for next year's QB position. I think we'll see a depth chart listing Green and then Lee. Green cuts his teeth early in the season and Lee is an able backup should injuries befall us in league play. I'd be comfortable with Lee as a capable backup.
kw Dec 22 09
Anyone that wants a good insite into the college football recruiting world, read "The Meat Market." It's about coach Orgeron and his recruiting at Ol' Miss. It won't make you a recruiting expert by any means, but it illustrates what a "crap shoot" the recruiting game really is. Players report their own GPA's, 40 times, and etc. The thing is Orgeron can recruit (see Miami, USC, Ol' Miss, and now Tennessee) but we all know how that worked out for him. If anything, that book reenforced Pelini's "we'll put the stars on them" recruiting mantality. Callahan could recruit but only on the offensive side of the ball (see Missouri). Recruiting means nothing if you can't develop players. Look at USC. Based on recruiting alone, there's no way they should have had the season they've had. I'm not saying Pete Carol can't develop players. What I am saying is although recruiting is the lifeblood of a program, there are so many other factors that go into the makings of a good program. Just don't read too much into recruiting.
That all being said, I still wouldn't mind seeing us land an occasional 5 star recruit and some more 4 star athletes on a consistent basis. It's a peice of mind thing really.
Matt Dec 22 09
Tyler--not being a hater at all. If anything, I gave props to the talent they currently have amassed there in Columbia.
The only reason Mizzery and Pinkel were able to achieve what they did is because Nebraska was being 'Calahanned' to death, bottom line. We still saw the residual in 2008 of the 'Callahaning' of our team; fortunately, we had superior coaching, so the '08 drubbing was something our staff not only learned from, but built a better team from as a result.
Pinkel has and continues to be a horrible gametime coach, and for all of the talent they have in Columbia, they should have had better results than what they did this year. Boone Farms Pickens State and Baylor should have been Ws, but they weren't because of poor coaching during the game.
Bottom line is, Mizzou has had, what, four years to get to where they can play toe-to-toe with the big boys (Oklahoma, Texas) in the conference. They've failed miserably at doing that and haven't registered a win (or anything close to resembling a win) against these schools in those four years.
Conversely, Nebraska is 2-1 in two years against those schools (Wins against OU and Texas--we all know Nebraska won that game and the Big XII offices/referees stole that on behalf of the vermin from Austin). In order to run roughshod over this conference, you have to put the cheating scum from Austin and their willing accomplices in Norman back in their place.
Which school is on the right track to do such a feat, and which one is still having to use Howard Schellenberger's old tricks to woo recruits to their school? I thought so...
Scott Dec 22 09
Hey Matt,
If you still think NU won the Big 12 title game you shouldn't be posting. Just accept that NU got beat fair and square.
Why are we so concerned about Missouri and their recruits? Gabbert wants to throw 40 times a game and NU doesn't. I don't blame the guy. There is no guarantee Little Gabbert will even see the field before his junior year.
And Rankings, who cares about stars and prospect rankings. Those are for guys that have never played a down and have nothing better to do.
Jeff Dec 22 09
Sure Scott, Fair and Square keep believing that. Don't tell people whether or not to post based on your differing opinion. For the record we decommited from Gabbert not the other way around.
Scott Dec 23 09
Okay Jeff,
Tell me and show me how Texas cheated. We lost the game. 13-12. Final score. We're 9-4 and UT is undefeated. Still not seeing how NU won that game.
Are people really that naive to think that there shouldn't have been a second left?
Did someone tilt the upright to the left during the last kick too? Or was there a computer chip in the football on the last kickoff to make it sail out of bounds? Nebraska LOST the game. Tough breaks.
Dwayne Dec 23 09
Scott,
Official time is kept on the field. It was a bad call by the referees and never should have been reviewed. How can one guarantee that the clock pasted on the video was accurate? Have you ever heard of photoshopping an image? Bottom line, official time is kept on the field. That call was made because of BCS implications and if you don't understand that, you're kidding yourself.
Scott Dec 23 09
According to the rules, which were explained several times in articles, on tv stations, sports networks all over cable, etc., I believe that was reviewable.
Does anyone remember the bad call when the Texas kick returner was ruled down around the 2 yard line? I haven't really heard any mention of that from the Nebraska fans. I think Texas would have liked 20 more yards on that one.
I'm not trying to fight, just making a point.
Dwayne Dec 23 09
My point is, the call at the end of the game was wrong. It happens like many times before. Colorado's 5th down and Penn State's tetris field just to name a few. The referees at the didn't take control of the game. Seriously, the media wanted Texas and the SEC champ all year. Do you really think the referees were going to end the game? Come on. Mack Brown is a jackass for his comments after the game and nobody's going to convince me otherwise.
Me Dec 24 09
The fact that Bo and Co, cant seem to close the deal on many commits concerns me much more.
Dwayne Dec 24 09
NU has pretty much completed this recruiting class. Me, I don't understand your comment. How many more "deals" are you expecting?
Doug Dec 31 09
It may be just my own observation, but neither Osborne or Pelini or even Bill Snyder seem to care much about high school prospect rankings because they tend to be sulking babies when life gets tough. Nebraska and Kansas State just take the ones who want to play and turn them into NFL stars. Maybe the other coaches should wise up.