Oskie!

3 comments so far December 3, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

Inspired by Darren's beautifully titled, highly specific "Screen!" post yesterday, today we're going to tackle one thing Nebraska needs to do defensively to beat Texas.

It's simple in theory: Intercept Colt McCoy.

It's far more difficult in practice.

Winning the turnover battle isn't a key to winning football, it simply is winning football. You win the turnover battle, more often than not, you win the game. In nine wins this season Nebraska is +16 in TO margin and -12 in three losses. It's not insight, it's common sense.

But Colt McCoy, who perhaps more than anything else will be remembered as a deadly accurate QB, presents an interesting example. In 51 career games McCoy has thrown 42 interceptions in 1607 attempts, or one interception every 38.2 attempts. The average attempts per game for McCoy over his career to date is 31.5.

It's not surprising then that when Texas has lost games, some uncharacteristic mistakes out of McCoy have been part of the equation. In Texas' seven losses with McCoy at the helm, he's thrown an interception in six of them. The lone exception? The 2006 loss to Kansas State where McCoy lead the Horns on a seven minute opening drive that resulted in a one-yard plunge for a touchdown and a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the rest of the game after four pass attempts (all completions).

Again, nothing earth-shattering there but then there's this stat: The only two times Texas has lost as more than a 13-point favorite with McCoy, throwing out that one-drive appearance against KSU in 2006, was when he threw three INTS against A&M in 2006 and then set a career high with four the next year at home against Kansas State. The spread for Saturday's Big 12 championship game has been hovering around 14 this week.

But what about the other side of the equation? Nebraska's stingy defense, a Blackshirts crew that used five interceptions--including one that set up their only touchdown of the game--to win the last game they weren't supposed to against Oklahoma? Over the summer I looked at just how bad and/or unlucky Nebraska has been in the turnover battle since 2004. Under Pelini that was expected to change and it finally has this year--knock on wood--with the Huskers at plus-four to rank 39th in the country after finishing 108th last year with a -11 turnover margin.

In fact, this season Nebraska has been one of the best defenses in the country in getting interceptions at 16 on the year (T-13th in the country). Over the long run, however, Nebraska's been closer to average in the interception department with an average national rank over the past four seasons of 56.75. To use the same time frame as we did with Colt McCoy, since 2006 in 51 games the Blackshirts have 48 INTS against 1661 attempts or one per every 34.6 attempts. To put it another way, the entire Nebraska defense, against starters, back-ups, halfback passes, late game hail marys and whatever else, has gotten interceptions only slightly more frequently than McCoy has thrown them.

Even if those two numbers were as equal as they looked, equal isn't going to win the game for Nebraska. Both Husker and Horns fans know this. Texas is the better team and if both teams simply play to form Texas will win every time.

No, for Nebraska to win something extraordinary must happen and more than rushing stats, sacks, or time of possession the best measure of "extraordinariness " for both teams might be Texas' interception total.

Watch it closely. It's not very likely, but if it hits two we might have ourselves a ball game thanks to one more stat: Nebraska is 18-0 since 2004 in games where they recorded multiple interceptions.

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