Oklahoma a Six Point Favorite
11 comments so far
November 4, 2009 by
It's no surprise that the Sooners find themselves the favorite as they come to Lincoln, given what they did to the Huskers the last time the two teams played and how Nebraska has looked in its last three games. But they are not a prohibitive favorite. In fact, what a six point line tells you is that the Huskers just need one big break (i.e. touchdown) that you wouldn't normally expect them to get in order to win the game. Since OU has a positive turnover margin on the year and NU a negative one, bucking that trend might be all it would take.
From Nebraska's perspective, it's pretty simple. The Huskers are 5-0 in the games where they won the turnover battle and 0-3 in the games where they lost it. Oklahoma lost the only game in which they lost the turnover battle. In the other seven games they went 5-2. That gives Nebraska a little hope that they could even win the game without winning the turnover margin, just as they might have against Iowa State with just one fewer turnover.
The Sagarin predictor rating, which is a often helpful tool for picking point spread winners, gives Oklahoma just a half point edge over Nebraska in Lincoln. That seems a little surprising given what we've seen, but Sagarin doesn't give greater weight to recent games than those played earlier in the season. It also doesn't look at who might be hurt or healthy. On paper, a close game between two 5-3 teams doesn't seem all that far-fetched. Yet in the minds of Husker fans, the point spread might as well be 30 points, since OU has seemed so much better than Nebraska for so long.
For most of the season (and the last 10 years), OU has been a team that doesn't beat itself. Nebraska has been the opposite. Breaking that pattern will be the key to victory for Nebraska on saturday night.
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Glenn Baker Nov 04 09
Steve your last line says it all- "Yet in the minds of Husker fans, the point spread might as well be 30 points, since OU has seemed so much better than Nebraska for so long." It seems like OU gets the breaks that NU never gets. A potential fumble or interception for years in the 70's and 80's we watched this and it seems like the trend is back there again. I am traveling up from Fort Jackson, SC for the game and I hope to see a win but our offense just looks anemic agains pedestrian defenses let alone one of the best in the nation. Still I will cheer until my voice is gone for NU. GBR!!
huskersouth Nov 04 09
KState exploited some weakness with OU using a moblie QB, mixed with the pass over the middle linebackers. Cody Green will give the best chance to win this game, but the Blackshirts are going to have to keep it close.
Huskers: 20
Sooners: 19
Matt Nov 04 09
Huskersouth, good points. If anything, we should be able to exploit the middle of the field with McNeil and provide Green a big, easy target to aim for when necessary.
The problem is whether or not Watson will work on getting the ball into the hands of the known playmakers on offense. McNeil has been way too quiet since Mizzou, and it's one of the reasons we're having problems moving the ball on offense.
Scott Nov 04 09
Six points?? That's it??
WyHuskerFan Nov 04 09
Sooners were up 21 when KSU started to make a move. I give them credit for the attempt which was much like our 2nd half last year. Keys for NU is to avoid a shootout, get turnovers and then exploit them. I'm tired of Sooner magic in our house, but sadly, many Husker fans are resigned to this as fate or karma. To me it's attitude. OU and their fans expect to win. Husker fans just hope their team plays well and doesn't get embarrassed on national TV again. We gotta lot of work to do to get this turned around. Be focal 12th man. GBR!
James Moore Nov 04 09
Kansas State just doesn't make the same mistakes that we do. That's a fairly decent football team that they have in Manhattan. It was a team that stuck to its guns, didn't panic, and played the game through. I wouldn't use that game as a measuring stick for us, because as painful as it may be we are a team that just can't execute. . .
Any word on Dennard? Is he cleared to play? If West is out there I can promise you at least one busted coverage and that could be 7 points right there. All in all this bunch has got to WANT to make plays. The O-Line has to start taking it PERSONAL that they are being beat up front. . .
If I'm Oklahoma I ruthlessly press the WR's, dare them to beat me off the line, and get physical to the point of practically being a bully on the island. Load the box, show blitz pre-snap on every down until our O-Line can prove that it can create a pocket, Green can deliver it, and our WR's can make plays one-on-one. Oklahoma is going to JUMP the bubbles, slips, and jailbreaks early because (like last year) they will be expecting Watson to call these plays early to get Green comfortable. Take some shots downfield. Send a message to the Sooner Safties that they have to cover over the top. Otherwise McNeil can expect bracket coverages and the check down will be jumped forcing Green to make reads 3/4 from the get-go. . .
The darn shame is that our defense is going to give our offense every chance to make plays. They're going to hold for a large stretch of this game. IF they get any help from the offense then things can get interesting. The defense at all three levels will be able to play with the Oklahoma offense. See we should be able to play with Oklahoma over 60 minutes if the offense could put something together. That's the big question. Can the offense put some points on the board and take advantage of opportunities (turnovers, big plays, short fields). Do that, and we cover. . .
And to the crowd, BE LOUD!!! Be that SEA OF RED!!! Our team needs to know that the 12th man is behind them!!!
OU7times Nov 04 09
I'll bet this year Pelini doesn't call a screen pass on Nebraska's first play.
kw Nov 04 09
James...I like what you said about taking our shots early, because you're right...OU will be ready to jump on anything conservative to get Green comfortable. Play-action deep ball on the first play. Suprise them and take some shots down the field. If we can succeed at this early and get OU's defense off balance early, it opens everything else up. Plus it creates chances for some big time momentum early in the game, and sends a message to our own players to take charge.
huskersouth Nov 04 09
Matt, agreed - Watson needs to re-establish the vertical passing with TEs. He needs to understand that TE passes across the middle will make the linebackers hold back and loosen the box pressure off Green and the running game. The TEs are just being used for blocking now, which makes opening of running lanes difficult with the box now double stacked.
OU7, yes telegraphing the screen pass has been a bad habit with NU. The simple pump-fake is so underrated, haven't seen it since late last season with Ganz after the OU whipping.
Scott Nov 04 09
Hey OU7 I'll take that bet. Watson will be the one calling it.
I just hope it's not 28-0 before I even have my finger food on a plate like last year.
Cal4Huskers Nov 05 09
I think the Huskers have a better chance than many might expect. OU's offensive line has had problems of their own and I think Suh and company are going to be very disruptive. Our problem is youth at QB. Colt McCoy said he had never seen some of the blitz packages that OU threw at him and that says a lot. Our O-line has to be physical and open some holes for the running game, because the passing game is going to be a real challenge. It is doable.