It's Still About Nebraska

12 comments so far November 30, 2009 by Steve Hanway

There's some thought that the outcome of the Big 12 title game is entirely in the hands of the Texas Longhorns. While there's no doubt that the Longhorns have been the superior team over twelve games, it's still largely about what Nebraska can do that will determine who is the Big 12 champion.

Winning the Turnover Battle
It's been pretty simple for Nebraska this year. They are 9-0 in the games where they've won the turnover battle and they are 0-3 in the games where they've lost it. Texas only lost the turnover battle once and that was in a home game against Central Florida where the Longhorns had a single turnover and the Knights had none. Nebraska creates turnovers by tipping passes, creating pressure on the quarterback, and stripping the ball. Take care of the football and you don't lose the turnover battle. Create some and you win. You have to expect that at least one defensive player for Nebraska will have an opportunity to make an interception. Yes, Texas could avoid turnovers too but they've been no better at it than the Huskers as each team has given the ball up 20 times. Take away the worst game for each school and Nebraska comes out ahead in the category. The Longhorns have been better at getting turnovers, which is why ball security is the top priority for Nebraska's offense against Texas.

Avoid Penalties
Your opponent can't cause you to commit penalties. Offensive penalties are drive killers. Defensive ones lead to points. Just look at the Colorado game. CU's first false start on 3rd and 1 resulted in a punt. Ditto that for NU's first false start penalty. A holding penalty killed the last offensive drive the Buffs had in the first half. A false start helped kill Nebraska's opening drive of the third quarter. A Husker defensive holding penalty set up Colorado's second touchdown. A false start then helped kill Nebraska's ensuing drive. Intentional grounding killed CU's next drive as it set up a 52-yard field goal miss. An offsides penalty by CU assisted Nebraska on their final touchdown drive. Larry Asante's personal foul helped the Buffaloes into the red zone, before back to back offensive penalties set up a 3rd and 4th and 20 situations which ultimately lead to the Prince Amukamara interception. Nearly every penalty was costly for the team who committed it. That's usually how it goes. Play within the rules and you have a much better chance than if you break them.

Hit the Open Man/Catch the Ball
As good as Texas is defensively, there will be opportunities to complete passes. Guys will get open. It will be up to Zac Lee to find the open man and up to that receiver to catch the ball. Yes, there will be times he has to throw it away or even take a sack. But when the play is there, they have to make it. That's true whether you play Texas or Arkansas State.

Play Field Position
If Alex Henery can continue his magic of pinning opponents inside their five yard line, it will help the Huskers immensely. Nebraska just has to protect him long enough to get the punt off. For the first time this season, Nebraska is facing a team they outpunt. That's a trend that has to continue.

Avoid Major Breakdowns
If Nebraska's defensive players are where they are supposed to be, then Texas will have to earn their points. A blown coverage (think the last play against Colorado) is a gift you can't give to the Longhorns. Likewise, offensive players have to know their assignments. Block the right man, run the right route. Texas can't stop Nebraska from playing smart.

In the end, it will matter that Texas is bigger, stronger, and faster. How much it matters though will depend on how well Nebraska takes care of their own business. Nebraska is bigger, stronger, and faster than Iowa State - you saw the result. Likewise, Oklahoma is probably bigger, stronger, and faster than NU. Again, look at the result. Three out of four football games are lost rather than won, it's been said. If Nebraska doesn't do things to lose the game, they might be three quarters of the way to the Fiesta Bowl.

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