Could the North Produce a 4-4 Champion?
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November 6, 2009 by
If oddsmakers have it right, then every Big 12 North team will have at least three conference losses after this weekend (ISU and CU will have four). It's not hard from that point to map out scenarios where each three loss team takes a fourth loss. Kansas likely will when they travel to Austin. Nebraska would if they lose in Lawrence. Kansas State would with a loss in Lincoln. Missouri would with a loss at Kansas State or to Kansas. That would make the best division record in the North 4-4. As shameful division championships go, that's probably right up there with the 1981 Kansas City Royals that made the playoffs in a strike-shortened season at 50-53 (before being swept out of the playoffs).
Of course, that assumes the oddsmakers have got this weekend pegged and that's no certainty. Kansas is less than a field goal favorite over Kansas State in Manhattan this weekend. Oklahoma is seeing their spread over Nebraska dwindle to four and half points in some places. Texas A&M has just a field goal edge over Colorado in Boulder. Iowa State is a bigger underdog (at least a touchdown) hosting Oklahoma State. Missouri is at least a two touchdown favorite over Baylor though an upset there would give the Tigers a fourth conference loss.
That could even position the Big 12 North champion to play BCS spoiler. Not by becoming Big 12 champion (be serious), but rather that the North representative might be so weak that they actually hurt the national championship prospects of Texas simply because they weaken the strength of schedule and computer rankings. Don't believe it can happen? Recall that the 1999 Nebraska squad played an overtime game against a weak Colorado team that all but ended hopes of the Huskers playing Florida State for the national championship. Likewise, an unimpressive win over those same Buffs nearly cost Nebraska a share of the national title in 1997. A close win by Penn State over Indiana in 1994 similarly was seen as what kept them from a title.
Mathematically, two teams are still alive to finish 6-2 in the conference. Those teams are Nebraska and Kansas State who so far each have just two conference losses. But depending on who you ask, a 6-2 champion might be less likely than a 4-4 one.
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kw Nov 06 09
I keep reading how K-State could clinch the Big 12 North by winning their two home games left on the schedule. Not here, but I've read several articles that have metioned this. That's not true at all. Even if Nebraska loses this weekend, and then wins out (not saying that will be an easy task, but it is more than possible). That would mean we would beat K-State and both would finish with a 5-3 Big 12 record with the tie breaker going to us for the heads up matchup. But beat OU this weekend, and NUs path will be much easier. So GO BIG RED!!!