Can the Huskers Gut it Out for Three Games?
9 comments so far
November 11, 2009 by
Nebraska fans have had plenty to worry about, if they wanted this year. While the whole offense has been a concern, specifically the health of Roy Helu has been the barometer for how well the offense will perform. When Helu is limited the whole offense is limited. Because of those limitations, there's also some concern about relying on the defense too much. The 87 snaps against Oklahoma were 20 more than the season average. You may recall that in 2007, the Huskers had a game where the defense was on the field for over 100 snaps against Iowa State. Teams seldom win after such an outing and NU was no different as they took it on the chin against a rested Missouri team in Columbia the following week and the season continued to unravel from there.
The next three games are very critical for Nebraska. True, the Huskers could absorb a loss to Kansas in Lawrence and still take the division with wins at home over Kansas State and against Colorado in Boulder. But you wouldn't want to miss the opportunity to lock down the division a week early so that the Buffaloes don't play spoiler in the season finale (the've certainly spoiled enough seasons in the past, see 1989, 1990, 2001, 2002, 2004, & 2007). That means you have to go all out this week against KU.
Nebraska's best plan for victory the next three weeks will likely be to ride Roy Helu and rely on defense and special teams to gut out victories. If health and fatigue weren't an issue, you might consider giving Helu 100 touches over the next three games. Realistically, that seems like too much to ask and certainly might leave him completely spent in the event of a Big 12 title game appearance. Likewise, if the defense has to take 87 snaps a game, they could quickly stop looking like the unit that shut down Missouri, Baylor, and Oklahoma and start looking like a unit that's trying to catch it's breath.
But the alternative isn't all that appealing either. Trying to spare Helu and the defense by being overly aggressive offensively (i.e. going beyond the few strengths of the offense and trying to do too much) could backfire. That's why coaches get the big bucks, they can decide which course to take and then surely be criticized if it doesn't work out.
The good news is that Roy Helu did appear capable of carrying the offense against Oklahoma, just as he did against Virginia Tech. Those happen to be two of the best defenses in the country, so that's no small feat. He's also a lot more rested than most starting running backs at this point in the season. And while the Husker defense did see 87 snaps, the NU offense actually won the time of possession battle against OU. That wasn't the case in 2007 when ISU kept the defense on the field for nearly 40 minutes. The bigger concern against Kansas might just be getting up emotionally for an opponent that hasn't been particularly impressive this season, but will be playing at home on senior day trying to get bowl eligible. The Jayhawks won't lack motivation.
There's still a lot of work ahead for Nebraska. They've got just enough talent, but will they have enough in the tank to see it through and turn what was becoming a mediocre season into a memorable one?
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Dwayne Nov 11 09
Speaking of defense, I think this unit deserves their black shirts back or whatever color it is they're wearing now. I just thought I'd mention that as it really hasn't been discussed too much lately.
Matt Nov 11 09
Steve--don't we get Rex Burkhead back soon? I would think if he's healthy again he would be a good option to use in spelling Helu these next three games. Robinson, while showing some flashes of talent, has been too inconsistent and wasn't able to get it going against OU.
Of course, the playcalling and O-Line didn't help Robinson out, but that's a given at this point.
kw Nov 11 09
Dwayne, I don't think they ever had them taken away. I could be wrong, but I believe they still have them. I just hope we don't have a hangover from the OU game. I agree with Steve that the KU game may be a bit of a sleeper because of KU's recent struggles. Plus we haven't beaten them in Lawrence the past two trips there. And even though they may be down, they have big play ability and can put up points on the board rather quickly. With our offensive woes, two touchdowns may be all KU would need to beat us. But I have faith in our D and hopefully Reesing is running for his life all game long and continues to be bitten by the turnover bug.
WyHuskerFan Nov 11 09
Good article. First off I think this year's defense is in better shape both physically and mentally. You can see they are much more comfortable and are attacking the offense and creating turnovers which was absent last year. If you look objectively at the OU game the offense played very physical against a really good defense. If that level of play is evident in the remaining games I think the O will put up some points and eat the clock with a dominating run scheme. It would be a joy to see the defense get a well deserved break. GBR!
glenn b Nov 11 09
WyHuskerFan,
Your point about our defense being in better shape is the key. We have depth in all the positions and can rotate in and out and not lose much in skill. We just have to face it and realize our team is a defensive team and if the offense can give 14 points a game, along with some turn overs from the defense then we will be alright. I would much rather have a kick ass defense than a great offense just ask Dan Marino how many rings he is wearing. GBR! Kill the Jayhawks!
Bill in Iowa Nov 11 09
Having Lee and Green "manage" the game against Oklahoma and run 90% of the time against a defense that is awesome at stopping the run turned out to be the formula for success. However, I have a feeling Wats will open it back up a little more against our remaining teams.
I should hope our o-line will be able to provide a lot more time for passes down field than w/ Oklahoma. Lets not forget, we were facing one of the top d-lines in the nation last week (some suggested Oklahoma had the best d-line in the Big 12---well I think we proved last week that we do).
I think we will still be run heavy this week, but less fearful to take our shots. It also sounds like Holt and Curenski have worked their way back into the starting rotation. I hope they show up big.
Bill in Iowa Nov 11 09
I have to admit that the last few posts I have posted on BRN have been bemoaning our offense and reflecting a little bit on the glory years when we could actual run with the football. I have tried my best not to fall into that trap. It's just that Callahan promised to "pound the rock" and Pelini promised we would be physical and re-establish the run. We started to see that happen, especially against Clemson last year, but w/ Castille gone, Burkhead out, and Helu 1/2 healthy, it's been a tough year for the run game and for the offense.
A friend at work who is a huge Iowa Hawkeye fan and sent me this video today. I thought it was a pretty funny outsider smack down at we Husker fans when we live in the past and dream about championship teams gone by.
http://www.whotv.com/videobeta/watch/?watch=dd53c10c-5b79-459b-8234-34220dfc9208&src=front
Ack Nov 12 09
They offense will lose 1 or more of the remaining 3.
Greg Morrow Nov 12 09
Kansas is statistically, about average defensively. They're pretty good with pressure; just below Nebraska, in sacks.
Average defense teed up against the Corn's conference (almost) bottom scraping offense.
Statistically, their offense ranks equal with Nebraska's D.
Some peeps would be well justified to be concerned.
I can't say the defense is just going to engulf some Jayhawk fricassee. If both sides cancel out each other, Kansas still gets about 20 points.
Then again, Kansas gives up about as much as Nebraska scores. Amazingly, Nebraska's better in turnover margin. Looking at it that way, Nebraska wins by about 24 to 21.
Strength of schedule is about the same.
I don't know. I think Nebraska gets to pretty much run their offense. They're not going to get "owned" like they did in the losses. Maybe not huge chunks down field, but they should string some first downs, assuming Lee's the starter. The reason is, this week, I think Watson has had them running what they do- the balance of pass/run plays. The whole playbook, which they all should know pretty well, by now.
Theoretically anyway, they have a vertical component in the offense. Kansas does have to account for that. If Green's the starter, Kansas obviously will "bring the house" and make him win it. Which he's not ready to do yet.
I'm not going to assume Nebraska's offensive confidence is shot. I don't think Watson's given up on what the offense is, on what it needs to do.
I'm going to assume they're tougher mentally, from the grind.
Can't wait!