The Sky Is Not Falling
17 comments so far
October 19, 2009 by
The loss to Texas Tech was certainly deflating. If a win over Missouri was a step forward, then losing at home to Texas Tech felt like a step backward (never mind that Tech beat Nebraska in their last visit to Lincoln). But this doesn't erase most of the opportunities that still lay ahead for this team or what it has achieved to date. Head coach Bo Pelini wasn't blowing smoke when he said, "We're a very capable football team". Nor was Niles Paul when he said, "We still think we can beat every team on our schedule. We have the ability in the locker room right now to do good things".
I obsess over Sagarin's predictor ratings more than most, probably. Maybe it's because it helps me pick big fat point spread winners (like Arkansas over Florida this week). Prior to the game with Texas Tech, Nebraska was fifth in the ratings. After a three-touchdown home loss to an unranked team, you'd expect that the Huskers would plummet further than the stock market did last October. But that didn't happen. Why not? Because Texas Tech isn't a bad team. There's no shame in losing to them. We may not fully realize that because they haven't won the Big 12 South. But they won 11 games last year. This year, they're on track to finish second in their division to Texas, who right now looks like the favorite to meet the SEC champion in the BCS national championship game. And Texas got to face the Red Raiders in Austin with Steven Sheffield on the bench. We've always known that Mike Leach had good offenses, but now he's got a good defense too. Jacob Hickman had called it "great" and that was before the game.
And you didn't watch the game thinking we couldn't play with Texas Tech. Rather, you just thought, why is Nebraska playing so badly? We didn't see the team we saw over the first five games. Some crisper execution could have really changed things. If Alfonzo Dennard bats the ball in any other direction, he kills Tech's opening touchdown drive. That's seven points. If Niles Paul doesn't drop the lateral that went for a Red Raider touchdown, the Huskers are in easy field goal range. That's at least ten more. The Huskers might get four more if they go for a touchdown near the end of the first half. If Prince Amukamara doesn't whiff on a tackle after an out pass in the closing seconds of the first half, Tech may not get their field goal. That's three more points. If Ricky Henry doesn't get flagged for contact after the whistle on second and goal from the four yard-line, Nebraska might get seven more. If Henery gets a better hold, he might hit that 51-yard field goal. If Cody Green doesn't throw an interception, Nebraska might get another three. If Curenski Gilleylen hauls in that tipped pass for a touchdown, that's another seven. Total that up and that's a potential 44-point swing and obviously a very different ball game. Potentially something like a 37-14 NU victory.
The point being, this team is not that far away from looking a lot better. That's probably why the predictor ratings aren't downgrading the Huskers by much after losing to a good team. It was just one bad outing, to go with five good ones (and yes, I'd call the games in Blacksburg and Columbia good ones). Those ratings would also make Nebraska a favorite in every remaining game on the schedule.
No, this won't be the year for Nebraska to play for a national championship or for Suh to win the Heisman. But it still could be a great year. We're talking 11+ wins and a top ten finish. Yes, the offense has to do more than we saw against Texas Tech, in the first three quarters on a rainy night in Columbia or in the red zone in Blacksburg, Virginia.
But this team isn't terrible. The season isn't over. They'll get a chance to show us something Saturday against Iowa State. Let's not write them off just yet.
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carole Oct 19 09
It still hurts....
Dwayne Oct 19 09
Couldn't agree more. It was one game and I thought before TT that NU didn't have to win that game to win the North. The thing after last weekend is Colorado looked like the best team in the North. I was actually hoping KU would win that game. If you look at KU's remaining schedule, they have a tough road ahead. If you look at CU, don't be surprised if they don't lose another game. As bad as they looked to start the season, CU seems to always linger around like a really bad fart.
Brandon Oct 19 09
All very true statements without even using "all our goals are still intact." Well done, Steve.
Here's what was really exposed on Saturday: The Huskers, and Pelini, are still learning. After Mizzou--and all the Suh pub and rankings boosts--it looked like NU might be able to put together a VERY special season. Now they can put together an only slightly less special season. What we found out against TT was that Nebraska wasn't quite ready to deal with the game to game pressures of piecing together one of those "one for the ages" seasons and, in the second year of our coach's first head coaching job, that's really not that much of a slight.
We're back to where we started the season: Nebraska should be better and good enough to win the North. They're still on track, it's just not the fast track.
Matt Oct 19 09
I agree, but this doesn't mean that the coaching staff shouldn't shake a few things up.
If we have kids out there that aren't making the plays like they should or are generating stupid penalties, then perhaps we need to give the second and third string players their shot at prime time.
If the playcalling in the game isn't setting us up for success, then perhaps we need to re-evaluate what it is these kids can do well, and then build from that.
I don't think the sky is falling, but there are some disturbing consistencies (penalties, O-Line blocking, special teams) that have yet to be remedied before we can say that we're progressing toward an 11-win season IMO.
BTW, am I the only one that the defense performed admirably despite our sputtering offense and Tech's penchant for putting up large numbers? Considering how often the defense was hung out there...I have nothing but respect for our non-Blackshirt defense.
DJ Oct 19 09
They are still Blackshirts since Friday night. Great passing teams typically give up less than 200 yards. The sky isn't falling, but it ain't clear ither.
Dwayne Oct 19 09
Matt,
Let's just say our offense never did our defense any favors on Saturday. The defense played well enough that you'd expect a win. Texas Tech is going to score points and to hold a team like that to 24 isn't bad at all considering the offense never did it's job in putting pressure on Tech to score. The only problem with the defense I saw was the first couple of series where we couldn't get off the field after third and long. That needs to change, but all in all that game was on the inability of the offense to do anything. Anything. It cracks me up because of what Shatel mention in the OWH. This offense has nothing to hang it's hat on if it isn't working. Isn't any offense that way? How miserable was it to watch an NU offense of old getting shut down by the speed of Miami and FSU in bowl games? All offenses need a trigger man, but above all, they need an offensive line that's going to help you move the chains instead of limit those opportunities. I still like the versatility this offense presents...
Glenn Baker Oct 19 09
Steve,
I couldn't agree more with the jist of your article. We can still win the Big 12 North. I have full confidence that Pelini ( a great leader) will re-evaluate all positions. Competition is what made this country great and so it will for the Huskers. I have complete faith in this coachinig staff to make the right decisions. My oldest son is beside himself thinking the season is over. I told him to not be so emotional. I had to laugh because I was the same way at 23. I think Iowa State is going to get crushed in a very bad way.
Denny Oct 19 09
It's time for the "Wildcat"! Latravius Washington would be the ideal player to put behind center for a few special plays. He was very good in the spring game.
RuggerHusker Oct 19 09
Come on Husker fams! I have read many of these articles from the TT game and it is still the same old way. We seemed surprised by the obvious things. Coming into the TT game I knew that we would have our hands full, on both sides of the ball. I think and stats prove that our defense played an excellent game. However, our offensive played to their level as well. We all knew that the offense was not going to be that great at the end of last season. We knew that we were losing the core of our WR, and a QB that had experience. Now we are in shell shock that we lost to a very good conference team?
I would prefer (but know it won't happen) to see Cody get the remaining games. This will set us up for the next 3 years on offense, and we know that Bo has already started to turn the corner with the defense. The WRs will come around, but they are still young right now. I am like many others; I believe that Watson is a mastermind in offense. However, you have to play in his scheme for some time to understand it. That is why I would prefer to Cody starting and letting him have that time to learn from it. Let’s be honest, this year we don’t have a Tommy, Eric, or Mike on the offensive side. However, we have a ton of players that are stepping up on defense. I also believe that with either Cody or Zach, this team can bring home the Big 12 North this year. The one team that we have to get through is going to be (as usual) CU. OK will be a tough game, however, I believe this team will not take two home loses this year.
The defeat this weekend is twofold in my mind; the coaches didn’t do a good enough job in getting the offense ready (Part of the reason for so many offensive penalties). This isn’t the first time this year that they have failed at job. Blacksburg and Columbia comes to mind for me. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing; the coaching staff is still young and learning. The second thing is leadership. To make the team click and operate it takes leadership, and the offense has none. That is why the defense is clicking; Bo and Brother are leading the charge there from the coaching side and Suh from the player side. This defense shouldn’t be this good this year, but they are and they are not overrated.
To those that trashed the defense (don’t remember what column it was) I have a few things on this point. Suh was doing what he always does, however, on Saturday he was doing it against an All-American and being doubled teamed most of the time. That is why we seen so many other black shirts in the back field. TT offense can blow a game out of proportion in a heartbeat, but the black shirts held them to only 31 points and half of their usual yards. Any decent team should be able to beat TT if they only score 31 points, but our offense is not firing that way.
So no the sky is not falling, it’s just that our hopes where to high for this team. This team will do well this year, but we are not fully turned around yet and going into the direction of true Nebraska Football.
For those fans at the game, cut the booing out! I felt ashamed of my home town at halftime as the team left the field to booing. Remember, this is our team and reflect us as a fan base. If it is the referees that you want to boo then find a different method, but don’t make it appear towards the team. Nebraska is not known for that type of behavior, nor should we allow that type of fanship to manifest into us.
boomer Oct 19 09
"Any decent team should be able to beat TT if they only score 31 points"---> You must be from Nebraska to be this dumb. Didn't you see Tech's defense sacking your quarterbacks at will. Your statement might have been true three years ago, but Tech's defense its becoming scarier by the day, everybody knows how their offense operates. I seriously believe that if Tech keeps improving at this pace, they will be at the National Championship next year.
Matt Oct 19 09
Boomer--Nebraska's offense made Tech's defense look great because of their ineptitude Saturday. Tech did nothing that we haven't seen, and Nebraska has already faced better defenses on the road (read: V. Tech, possibly Mizzou) with better results than today.
As for being 'dumb', the only one that's looking dumb is yourself for putting 'Texas Tech' and 'National Championship' in the same sentence without anything to negate said possibility. Without a running game or decent defense, they won't even sniff Dallas, let alone Pasadena. They don't have either yet.
RuggerHusker Oct 19 09
Boomer, First yes I am born and raised in Lincoln, hard not to be a Husker fan. Second, it was actually a compliment for TT not against them. If you noticed, your last two losses, TT didn't even make it to 31 points. Now I would say that your defense did play a very good game, as I stated in the first paragraph, TT is a very good team. However, your defense wasn't playing against a very offense either.
James Moore Oct 19 09
With some hindsight I'm still kind of puzzled. Coach Watson did a fantastic job with our guys last year from the Texas Tech game onwards. We played to our strengths and put our guys in situations where they could perform. I don't see that so far. We're just not good enough on the perimeter and not solid enough up front to take whatever the defense gives us. The lagging indicator for us is going to be the WR corps (anyone miss Mr. Swift and Mr. Peterson? -- you would've thought that this bunch of WR's had some FINE examples to learn from last year). This seems to be the last unit that will have legitimate playmakers. I look around and can say that next year the front four? Looks pretty good, potentially comparable to this year's unit. Backers? Getting there, you gotta figure the way Martin plays that he seems to be the first player that has the potential to be a big-time playmaker. Secondary? Solid, find a way to replace Asante, and all things are up to snuff there. For all that was written about the defense (I was a bit surprised that they there were some critical comments about them) really played well. They gave up the opening drive, and outside of that really stopped the Red Raiders considering how long they were out there. Any defense that had ANY real weaknesses would've given up 50, 60 or 70 against them on a day where the offense was performing like ours. . .
Offensively? Look down the road 2-3 years the offensive line will have Qvale, Sirles, Rodrigues, Reeves, Moore, but the Callahan guys seem to be a bit soft. It just looks like there's not going to be a smash-mouth mentality emerge from these guys. They struggle with a big push. You either want to smash & dominate the guy in front of you or you don't, simple as that. I wish this unit would take things personal and get angry because the way they were whipped up front would be insulting for any lineman with any measure of respect for himself or his teammates. . .
BUT a Big 12 North title is well in reach, a birth in the Big 12 Championship Game possible, and honestly Texas is NOT a scary game. If we can cut down on the mental errors this bunch can go to the JerryDome and win, against anyone the Big 12 South has to offer. Find a way to play mistake-free/mental error-free and a special season is still possible. After all if we win out and were to win the Big 12 Championship wouldn't that not count as one heck of a year in Coach Pelini's second year?
Bill in Iowa Oct 19 09
I wish the defense's mentality would translate to the offense. Pelini may have to get more involved on offense. Mental mistakes and a general lack of hard nosed urgency is what really bothers me about this squad. I was not impressed with T-Techs defense. I was so mad at Lee double clutching and getting sacked when he could have easily got rid of the ball. It happened more than once. I know he is young, but he's got to get that football out. The play calling was very vanilla. I mean how many flanker screens and zone reads can you run in one game? Mr Moore, you hit it on the head though, this offense needs a leader. Someone, who can generate some emotion and confidence in these young men. I sensed Green brought that kind of leadership as soon as he stepped on the field. I am not one to think he is a cure all. He certainly could have thrown 3 pics in one quarter. But they need to develop a safe package of plays for this young man and start developing him. And give something else for teams to prepare for. One more thing, double tight end set. It didn't work last year, but this is another season. Our tight ends are our strength. It worked against Mizzou in the 4th quarter. Get those studs on the field and start using them both as blockers and receivers.
Scott Oct 20 09
Hats off to Texas Tech for coming in and earning the victory. They wanted this game more than NU did.
Nebraska is a good team. Not good enough in some areas though. This team has some severe discipline issues and that is evident in the penalty situation week in and week out. If that can't be corrected, we will never be better than a middle of the pack in the Big 12 North type of team.
This team will NOT win the North Division because I don't think they have what it takes. I used to think they did. But at this point they haven't done anything to prove it otherwise. Iowa State is playing better football than we are right now so don't be surprised if they come in and give us all we can handle this weekend.
Scott Oct 20 09
Hats off to Texas Tech for coming in and earning the victory. They wanted this game more than NU did.
Nebraska is a good team. Not good enough in some areas though. This team has some severe discipline issues and that is evident in the penalty situation week in and week out. If that can't be corrected, we will never be better than a middle of the pack in the Big 12 North type of team.
This team will NOT win the North Division because I don't think they have what it takes. I used to think they did. But at this point they haven't done anything to prove it otherwise. Iowa State is playing better football than we are right now so don't be surprised if they come in and give us all we can handle this weekend.
Scott Oct 20 09
Hats off to Texas Tech for coming in and earning the victory. They wanted this game more than NU did.
Nebraska is a good team. Not good enough in some areas though. This team has some severe discipline issues and that is evident in the penalty situation week in and week out. If that can't be corrected, we will never be better than a middle of the pack in the Big 12 North type of team.
This team will NOT win the North Division because I don't think they have what it takes. I used to think they did. But at this point they haven't done anything to prove it otherwise. Iowa State is playing better football than we are right now so don't be surprised if they come in and give us all we can handle this weekend.