Plan of Attack: Texas Tech Red Raiders

9 comments so far October 15, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

Have you enjoyed all the national attention Nebraska's received this week courtesy of Ndamukong Suh? Big Mr. Suh and the not quite ready for Blackshirts players passed their first major test of the season against a prolific Missouri offense last week.

This week will be even tougher as Cap'n Leach brings his pass-happy West Texas squad to Lincoln.

Let's draw up some plans...

1. Back seven...this is your time to shine.
Eclipsed by the sheer carnage the Nebraska front four left in their wake in Columbia last week was some pretty excellent play out of Nebraska's defensive backs. This week, as it is every time you play Tech, the spotlight shines squarely on the secondary.

There's probably not a team left on Nebraska's schedule that looks like it can neutralize Nebraska's defensive front as well as the Red Raiders can. Tech goes with the wide splits on their offensive line and the goal isn't so much to block their guys straight up but more to just lead them out of passing lanes. That requires the quarterback to make his reads and deliver the ball quickly. Nebraska may not not find much resistance on their way towards the Tech backfield but they're not going to have much time to get there either. This is the game where we find out how improved Bo Pelini's second defense at Nebraska is as a team.

Can the Huskers defend as well as they did against Missouri? Minus a couple deep pass attempts, the defensive backs have seemed to be a lot closer to the ball this season so I like Nebraska chances there. Perhaps more important is how they tackle. Texas Tech is going to complete passes, a lot of them. What happens after that is up to the Huskers. They'll have to make plays in space.

2. Will we see another game of offensive keepaway?
No. Here's why: a) Nebraska's better all around right now than they were going into Lubbock last year, particularly on defense, and b) With only Helu and a handful of question marks available right now, the Huskers aren't equipped to play that sort of game. So what does that mean? Well, we're going to get another good luck at Zac Lee and The Gloveless Bandits and it should be a pretty good measuring stick as it represents the first time Lee has faced a good opponent at home.

Can he win a game for Nebraska throwing it 40 times? We might find out as I'm not totally convinced Helu is 100 percent for this game. Texas Tech does rank sixth in the country in sacks so Lee might face some pressure. But he should find some passing lanes too as the Red Raiders rank 92nd in passing defense. Offensively, the game could look a lot like the Missouri game. To win it, Lee will have to look like he did against Arkansas State.

3. They wanna throw? Let 'em throw.
There is such a thing as throwing the ball too much at Texas Tech. Here's the Red Raiders' record in Big 12 play since 2004 based on pass attempts: 60+ 4-7, 50-59 9-4, 40-49 10-5.

Is that simply a matter of playing catch-up in blowouts? Not really. In those 11 games with 60 or more pass attempts Tech is +30 in total point differential or +2.7/game. Take away the 60-point victory over Nebraska in 2004 and the Raiders are down a total of 30 points in their last 10 Big 12 games throwing it 60 times. When the Red Raiders throw it 50+ times they hold a total point differential of 75 (5.7/game), 40+ times and the point total jumps to 170 (11.3/game). Balance, even by Texas Tech standards, still counts for something. The more Tech throws the closer the games have been on average and this is a good sign for Nebraska.

Leach has some talented runners in his backfield. Baron Batch was more highly touted out of high school than Roy Helu and ranks two spots behind him in YPC at 5.89. Freshman Harrison Jeffers is one spot ahead of Helu in that category (6.92), ranking 4th in the Big 12. They don't get a lot of carries but they've been effective when they do.

That said, Tech isn't built to run block and I'm not sure it would matter if they were against Nebraska's front four. The Huskers should be able to neutralize the running game pretty easily. We talked about pass attempts, but look at the rushing attempts for Texas Tech and you'll see the inverse relationship you'd expect. Everybody already thinks Texas Tech is one-dimensional but actually making them one-dimensional still ups your odds of winning.

So let it fly, Mike Leach, and bite down on that mouthpiece Huskers secondary.

Prediction: Nebraska 31 Texas Tech 27

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