Plan of Attack: Missourah Tigers

4 comments so far October 8, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

I feel good about this game. The past two years I've had to deal with a Cubs playoff loss immediately before a Missouri stomping. Throw in the Cardinals ties there it was like one giant gut punch from the Show Me State.

Not this year. This year I can focus all my attention on the Tigers. Thanks, Cubs. Genuinely. I'm relieved.

This game suddenly has a lot of variables to consider that didn't exist last week. Foremost for Nebraska fans is Roy Helu. He's supposed to be fine but, as Steve noted, it's not like Pelini hasn't been evasive regarding a player's availability before. The recent precedent for playing with flu hasn't been good either. Gritty, gutty Tebow and McCoy both struggled a bit with the bug and it's been drilled into me that if those two can't do it, it can't be done. Then again, Pelini probably couldn't be less concerned.

The other big factor is the weather. Rain of biblical proportions was the forecast early. Now it looks like the periods of deluge will hit early in the day, settling to a mildly annoying dampness by kickoff. Either way, I give the slight rain edge to Nebraska with a better ground game.

So how does Nebraska attack Missouri, win the bell, and plant their Big Red flag atop the North mountain again? I look at it like this:

1. Nothin' fancy, mind ya, just a place where good folks go.
In this case, the good folks are Suh & Co. along the front and the place they're looking to go is Missouri's backfield. The past two years against the Tigers, the Huskers played with a lot of three lineman sets and got eviscerated (just ask Chase Daniel). I don't think you'll see Pelini get too cute with the defense this year, and getting pressure without necessarily going to a blitz--at least early--will be one of the first things I look for from the Huskers.

Blaine Gabbert's been lights out throwing the ball, but make him pull the ball down and go and you're taking him out of his comfort zone. Against Nevada, Gabbert's designed runs looked like wasted downs (7 att., -15 yds). He's athletic enough to scramble, but I'd rather ask my linebackers and DBs to make a stop out of pass coverage rather than bring them out of coverage on a blitz and hope to get to Gabbert before he dumps it off on a quick slant or screen. We've seen how well Missouri executes that phase of the game.

2. Get physical.
This goes for both sides of the ball. Defensively, as Darren mentioned, the corners are going to have to press the Tigers receivers off the line, a tall task against the likes of Alexander and Perry but not impossible. Bowling Green's lightly regarded secondary--even by MAC standards--held the Tigers to their lowest passing output since Tony Temple alleviated the need to throw and ran wild on Arkansas for 281 yards in the 2008 Cotton Bowl. Timing is a huge part of the Missouri offense and, more than any sort of scheme, nothing disrupts timing like good old physical football.

Offensively, the most identifiable advantage Nebraska possesses is the ability to run the football behind Helu. His health might call that into question. The weather might snap it right back into focus, Helu or not. Either way, establishing the run is one of those evergreen keys to the game, but, for a couple of reasons, I think we might see Helu later rather than sooner. The first reason is that Helu's been most effective in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of games. With the pesky flu question, will Watson ease him into things? I think he will because, and this is the second reason, all signs--be it the perceived ground advantage or the weather forecast--point to Nebraska running the ball. Watson's a master at taking what the defense gives him and that looks like the pass early.

This is a good thing for reason number three...

3. Zac Lee is going to have to win NU the game.
Not by himself, of course, but with the way things have developed this week and the way Lee's lone road test this season went, there's a lot of weight on Lee's shoulders tonight. As bad as Gabbert was early against Bowling Green, he found a way to win in the second half. Lee hasn't done that yet. Not a knock, just a fact.

I'm expecting Watson to give Lee some early safe throws just to get him comfortable, but especially if Mizzou comes out geared against the run. The key, however, will be how Lee throws late in the game. The numbers are skewed a bit due to the three blowouts, but Lee's completion percentage goes down by quarter, from 73.1% in the 1st to 58.3% in the 4th. (Gabbert gets better as the game goes on.) We remember all too well the 5-18 performance in the second half against VT but 6-12 in the first half isn't good enough to win either.

Ultimately, that's what this game comes down to: Zac Lee, in his first conference game, is going to have to be better than we've seen him be thus far. He hasn't been bad, but everything is heightened in conference play. Perhaps more than anyone else, Lee will have to be too.

Pelini likes to talk a lot about starting strong, particularly on the road. In their last three losses to Mizzou, Nebraska's been outscored 49-20 in the 1st quarter, 75-40 in the first half. The road, in the rain, can be a lonely place to come from behind.

But this Nebraska teams looks better equipped to handle some early bumps than past iterations. The Huskers fought back from early deficits against the best two opponents they played recently, Virginia Tech this year and Clemson last year, and while you might see a deluge from the skies, I don't think this year's Blackshirts will allow it to happen again on the field.

Prediction: NU 31 MU 24

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