Grading Nebraska at the de facto break

6 comments so far October 1, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

How's your week without a game going? Feeling a little left out? Me too. Care to read about how awesome Carl Crawford would've been as a QB again to cheer up a bit? Me neither.

Instead, since we have a clean breaking point between the non-conference and conference schedules, let's do a little grading. The typical way to do this is to break down the individual units and assign them a grade, but let's try something else. Let's start with the standard letter grades, and then see where the various aspects of the Huskers' season thus far fall. That way we can kind of see what areas of the game, and players, are coming together to comprise the--I hate this phrase--"A game", and where NU might have some room for improvement.

And since we're one week away from eight straight weeks of Big 12 play, we'll use conference ranks rather than national.

A
Scoring Defense: It's not just the miserly seven points a game the Huskers are giving up (2nd in B12), but their stinginess around the end zone that's particularly eye opening. The not yet Blackshirts are second in the conference in terms of number of opponent red zone attempts with six and third in the conference in percentage at 66.67% West Virginia led the nation last year at around 63% so, while it'll be a much more difficult task to keep up their current rate in conference play, if the Huskers can keep stopping their opponent 1 out of every 3 times in the red zone they'll be in great shape. Do whatever else you want on defense, if you don't give up points you're effective.

Pass Defense: Here's some very good news. Nebraska ranks second in the Big 12 allowing opponents to complete only 50.4% of their passes. Missouri and Kansas rank 10th and 11th respectively at 61.2 and 62.5%. Despite the fact that they've already played two potential pro prospects at QB, the Huskers likely haven't faced a college QB as good as either Gabbert or Reesing. But the Jayhawks haven't either and I'd put Lee up throw for throw against Juice Williams or Colin Kaepernick right now.

Turnovers: This one was easy given that it was a point of emphasis coming into the season. NU is tied for the lead with four other teams in the Big 12 in turnover margin but the truly encouraging sign is that they're second in the conference in fumbles forced. That's a good indicator of a defense focused in getting the ball back.

Helu, Suh, Henery, & Gilleylen: So far, these are your aces. Helu leads the conference in rushing and yards from scrimmage. Suh, well, just watch a game and you'll see. He leads the team in tackles again--sort of like Dikembe Mutombo leading your team in steals--and is third in the conference in pass breakups behind three DBs. Henery has been his usual consistent self, good for 10 points a game so far this season. And, the biggest surprise, Gilleylen. He's been the early answer to the "who will the deep threat be" question, averaging 31.88 YPC to lead the Big 12.

B
Scoring Offense: Nebraska is ahead of where they were last year at this time and topping their year end average from '08 as well, but it's still hard to get those five FGs in Blacksburg out of your mind. Factor in the improved defense numbers, however, and scoring probably isn't as big a concern. On the precipice of an A.

Total Offense: I'm not disappointed with NU's offensive production, but they're about average in the Big 12 right now. (Which means they're in the Top 20 nationally.) Strength of schedule varies across the country, but I'm more or less comfortable lumping all the conference slates in together as about the same, so the game going forward really is what teams come the closest to replicating their current stats in conference? I think Watson's boys will probably increase their offensive output a little as the season progresses.

Special Teams: This is a tough one to gauge. Henery has been great as a kicker and pretty good as a punter and both Burkhead and Paul have shown flashes in the return game but statistically the Huskers are middle of the pack. I'll give them the B because NU hasn't shown any propensity to truly hurt themselves on specail teams yet.

Total Defense: If Bo Pelini isn't happy, I'm not happy. This means that, at least publicly, I never seem happy and I'm okay with that. It's hard to find fault with a top 25 defense, but the occasional break down keeps me from handing out the A.

Zac Lee: For a first year QB, it's hard to complain about what Lee's done, but that Virginia Tech performance, which was hardly awful, gives everyone pause.

Rush Defense: As far as defense goes, stopping the run is priority number one. Nebraska's been good at 113.25 YPG but that still seems a touch high considering the big leads they've enjoyed in three out of four games.

C
Passing Offense: This will make more sense once we get to the next letter grade, but 250 YPG passing hasn't been the number of a Big 12 contender the past few seasons. That number is only about 30 yards off the average from last year, but Nebraska hasn't been in a situation where it's absolutely had to pass yet either. For now, at least in comparison, the passing game has been average.

Time of Possession: Another stat that might not be nearly as important as it was last year. Nebraska doesn't have to keep their defense off the field to the extent they did last year, but winning teams typically have a slight edge in TOP. Right now, NU is about even.

D
Rush Offense: This is largely a matter of depth. The running game looked like a strength coming into the season and then Quentin Castille got booted. As good as Helu's been--and Burkhead too in limited carries--the lack of a rock solid second option, or refusal to use one, is probably the most glaring weakness the Huskers have heading into Big 12 play. How long do you think it will be before Burkhead has to put in a 20+ carry performance and really lead this team for a stretch? I have a lot of confidence that the kid can do it but we haven't seen it yet and that's troubling.

Penalties: Good teams are usually frequently penalized teams so Nebraska's average conference rank in number of penalties isn't truly alarming to me. But the Huskers have again shown the frustrating tendency to pile up penalties at inopportune times and that's a problem. The defense has shown the ability to knuckle down in the red zone, now the team needs to show the same discipline in regard to penalties.

F
Nothing: This is truly the takeaway for me from the non-conference portion of the schedule. I don't think Nebraska's failed in any aspect of the game and consistency between non-conference and conference play is what we're looking for. Can Nebraska continue to dictate play going forward? We'll see but that's been the biggest difference between last season and this one: You get the feeling that Nebraska has progressed beyond being simply reactionary and that's a very good sign.

That said, there are still a number of area untouched through four games, so feel free to add your own letter grades below.

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