Can Receiver Production Match 2008
13 comments so far
August 26, 2009 by
With all this attention placed on the Running backs the last few days, I have been forcing my mind to the Wide Receivers group the whole time. Not to minimalize the issue, but I'd like to keep focusing on the football that's going to be played in less than two weeks, not on players that are not going to contribute this year. In the last couple of years, our passing numbers have at least compared (on paper) favorably to the top teams in the Big 12. The 3417 yards and 32 TD in 2006 were the start of a new era in Husker football, but I want to compare the transition from 2007 to 2008. There are a few similarities in personnel changes from last year compared to this year's off season, but the key to the receiving corps numbers this year will be in the differences.
In 2007, 3886 yards and 31 TDs were courtesy of a passing attack that featured two playmakers that made the most of their touches. The little success found by Nebraska in 2007 were mainly because of Marlon Lucky and Maurice Purify (who I'll look at shortly). The breakout screen was the only consistently well-executed play that season, and Lucky took advantage of it. He was second on the team in receiving yards with 705, and first in number of receptions. He moved the chains with the ball in his hands. While no single back reached those totals in 2008, Lucky, Roy Helu, Jr., and Quentin Castille combined for 663 yards. The difference in plays was obvious, as the backs in 2008 were mostly used as checkdowns, in the slot, or different screen variations. This year, I look the back to be used mainly as a checkdown pass, or even in an occasional designed "joker" formation. Even without Castille, I could easily see 500 receiving yards from the backfield in 2009.
Past Lucky's breaks, Purify was the major force of the passing attack in 2007. The "jump ball" pass against Texas A&M was one of the key plays of the season. That type of play from Zac Taylor to Purify was what got him his 814 yards and 9 TDs in '07. An equally impressive force in 2008, Nate Swift put up even bigger numbers with 941 yards and 10 TDs. One huge need in 2009 will require a player that can emerge and push 800 yards receiving. Who will bring that big play potential to the table this season? Niles Paul and Menelik Holt are the obvious front runners with the most experience, but I think the X Factor is Brandon Kinnie, the JUCO transfer with something to prove. One of those guys needs to step up and be the go-to guy.
In 2007 and 2008 there was a stable of receivers in the wings that seemed to get out in the open when a 1st down or score was needed. From Peterson, Holt, and Paul in 2008, we're looking at Holt, Paul, and Kinnie as part of an important stable if one of them doesn't emerge as the #1 guy. Antonio Bell, Khiry Cooper, Curenski Gilleylen, and Steven Osborne could all play a part in making impressions this year that will separate a potential #1 guy for the next few years. The underclass talent in the wings this year is loaded, and could make a difference of a few hundred yards.
But for all the potential similarities in the past years, this year's big numbers are likely going to come from the Tight Ends group. In 2007, the TE position only accounted for 380 total yards and 4 scores, but it jumped to 8 TDs and 618 yards in 2008! The top two ends, Mike McNeil and Dreu Young return, but stand out Sophomore Ryan Hill also will get his chance to contribute at a position that is the deepest on the whole squad. Don't be surprised if the '09 squad surpasses last year's contributions from the tight end position.
So what kind of outlook is expected in the receiving department? So much depends on the game day actions of Zac Lee, but if he turns out to be almost as good as Joe Ganz or Zac Taylor, 3500+ yards and 25 touchdowns shouldn't be out of the question.
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Austin Aug 26 09
I think Paul will definitely have a productive year. The tight ends and RBs will also contribute almost 1000 yds of passing. But the key is how well Zac Lee plays.
Looking at our offense the past couple of years and the QBs who played in our offense I expected Zac to throw fairly well (around 63% passing) with something like a 2:1 TD:int ratio. These numbers are similar to Ganz (first yr.), Keller, and Taylor.
We may get a little bonus yardage if Zac Lee can run well.
As far as the receivers go, after Paul you have a logjam at receiver with several "good" receivers, but no "great" receiver. I'm thinking Holt, Brooks, Bell, and Kinnie will probably all get about the same number of catches and yardage.
Andy Aug 26 09
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Zac Taylor's jump ball to Purify against A & M the big moment in 2006, not 2007? In '07, the QB position was manned by Keller and Ganz.
caveman99 Aug 26 09
For all of the hype about Kinnie, a comment from post practice stories yesterday evening caught me off guard. Gilmore said that Kinnie was still "swimming in it" playbook knowledge wise and that was keeping him from being a real factor right now. I know the playbook is large and difficult, especially the NU offensive playbook, and I am not holding this against Kinnie, I think I was just under the impression that Kinnie would be a big contributor this season based upon all of the comments from coaches and players. This tidbit makes me wonder if he will be the 3rd WR as I thought he could be. Also with Antonio Bell having problems with his blocking, I think we may have gotten a bit too excited about what we see this season from the 2009 WR recruits. I am starting to think that Brooks will be the #3 WR almost by default. He will be better this season, no doubt, but I guess I was just hoping for playmakers 1-4 in the WR corps this season and early indications were suggesting that.
tom Aug 26 09
Andy, you're right. Thanks for pointing that out. I was thinking of that play in '06. Regardless, Mo's specialty was the jump ball for certain.
Bill in Iowa Aug 26 09
I'm a little concerned that after a few weeks of practice they can only point to Niles Paul as a receiver who has stepped up and earned the starting position. I was also disappointed, but not surprised to hear Kinnie and some of the younger but promising WR's still have a ways to go to really learn the position. It sounds like Paul and the talented tight ends are going to be the go to guys.
After that, I guess we will see who else can deliver on game day. My money is still on Holt and Brooks initially (because of their experience) and hopefully Bell and Kinnie can become a force as the season progresses. Regardless, I know that Wats is going to know where his strengths lie and get them the ball. The distribution may be different, but I would expect similar yardage results as in years past.
cvldfg Aug 27 09
Whatever happened to Paul and his DUI arrest? Did he get suspended? If so, for how long?
tom Aug 27 09
I'm still confident that the receivers group can learn what they need to compete. Kinnie has been called out by coaches and not absorbing everything yet, but the defensive players mentioned they have trouble lining up against him because of his athletic ability. And other receivers have been impressed with his abilities too. As long as he can learn the right things, he will be a contributor.
As for Paul, I couldn't find much describing his punishment other than he was suspended from the team for the Spring, and he's practicing now with all indications points to him playing right away. His plea deal in July only had him getting fined, and Bo is probably more of a three strikes guy (this being Paul's first strike).
carlinthemarlin Aug 27 09
You might remember that Mo Purify didn't come on until the second half of the season in '06 because he had trouble learning the playbook. I see a similar fate for Kinnie in '09.
Bill in Iowa Aug 27 09
The question with Kinnie, if he sits half the season to learn the playbook, why play him at all? Why not use a redshirt and then he has two full seasons ahead of him. The exception would be if he is an amazing return specialist. I haven't heard anything who is in line to be return specialists though???
tom Aug 28 09
He's not going to sit half the season - there are going to be plays where he is valuable. Mo didn't sit half the season, he played in 11 but started 4. I think Kinnie is too much of an athletic talent not to use him in situations that he can handle.
caveman99 Aug 28 09
Bill,
I think Kinnie is a 3 in 3 guy coming out of JUCO, meaning he doesn't have a RS available to use. His 3 years start ticking right away.
Jeff Smith Aug 28 09
Now that Castille is gone, I'd look for significant receiving production for Rex Burkhead. The kid has very good hands, can come out of the backfield, line up in the slot, even slide to wide out.
Bill Bartmann Sep 03 09
Cool site, love the info.