Early Odds Are "Out": Golden Nugget makes KU 2.5 point favorite over NU
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July 7, 2009 by
If a sportsbook releases early college football odds but there's no way to link to them, do they still make news? Sure they do, and thanks to a segment on Omaha's 1620 the Zone yesterday (here's the audio link) we now have a record of some of the biggest early Big 12 odds released by the Golden Nugget that heretofore had only been available on the actual tote board in Vegas or, presumably, printed somewhere on something they call paper.
Luddites.
Forget for a second that these lines will inevitably be far different by the time the actual games take place and just look at them like you do any other sort of preseason prognostication: another estimation of team strength. But, and this is the reason I love looking at the odds, this estimation comes from a source that is theoretically impartial. Sure, the casino's goal is to ultimately get equal action on both sides and let the vig do the work all the while factoring in which way a line will move. Does that change how impartial they are? Slightly, in my opinion, but I still think capitalism is a better impetus for impartiality than impartiality itself. Anyway, on to the odds...
11/14 Nebraska @ Kansas -2.5
In what many view as the pivotal game in deciding the Big 12 North, the Jayhawks open as a slight home favorite. With no games played and two full months of results before these two teams even meet, this seems pretty fair. The general assumption regarding home field advantage is that it's worth about three points, but Phil Steele lists KU's homefield edge as -4.5 based on past results. If you factor that in, NU looks like a two-point favorite overall. Last year, coming off the Oklahoma trouncing, Nebraska was -1 at home against KU.
10/17 Texas Tech @ Nebraska -7
This is one of Steve's key games for deciding the North, and the Nugget installed Nebraska as a touchdown favorite over the largely unknown Red Raiders. Steele lists the Huskers homefield edge as -4.25--a quarter point, really?--so basically you're looking at a field goal difference between the two in presumed real value. If forced to pick one game today, I don't think I'd touch this one at -7.
11/27 Nebraska @ Colorado +6
Gotta figure that Buffs fans are jumping all over this one. If you have any faith remaining in Dan Hawkins you just about have to take a touchdown at home in a game that could be make or break for the hot seated head coach. What might be more interesting is to see how much this one has changed by the time we're entering the final week of Nebraska's regular season. Last year Nebraska was an 18-point favorite at home against CU.
10/8 Nebraska @ Missouri EVEN
A pick'em in the the first conference game of the season which seems appropriate as this Thursday night game will be one of the first opportunities to either confirm or deny the prevailing off-season sentiment that Nebraska's getting better and Missouri probably isn't. The Tigers, along with Kansas, have the best homefield edge in the Big 12 North according to Steele at -4.5, so adjust as you see fit. Last year Nebraska was a 10-point home underdog--nearly two touchdowns without the homefield considerations--so it looks like Vegas, or at least the Nugget, is buying a pretty steep drop off for the Tigers.
11/7 Oklahoma @ Nebraska +9.5
Not much more to say other than it's a lot better than the -21 the Huskers faced going to Norman last year. And, as you'll see below, it's not too bad in comparison to some of the other Sooner spreads.
9/19 Nebraska @ Virginia Tech -6
Of all the Nebraska games listed by the Nugget, this one seemed the most encouraging to me for two reasons: a) It's the earliest game listed so, barring a total collapse by the Hokies--or domination--in week one against Alabama, it probably has the best chance of staying close to the same, and b) Lane Stadium is notoriously tough. How tough? Steele gives the Hokies a six-point edge every time they play at home and that's the Nugget line, six points. So the consensus #7 team and #22 team are about equal? Of course, none of this is absolute apples to apples, but it does lend some strength to my theory that Virginia Tech, while sure to be a damn tough game, probably isn't as tough as the rankings might indicate. I respect Virginia Tech, but I don't fear Virginia Tech and I'm sure the Hokie faithful felt much the same traveling to Lincoln last year as seven point underdogs.
Elsewhere in the Big 12:
UGA @ Ok. St. -3
Missouri v. Illinois -2.5 (St. Louis)
BYU v. Oklahoma -21 (Arlington, TX)
Texas Tech @ Texas -17
Oklahoma @ Miami +10
Oklahoma v. Texas -3 (Dallas)
Texas A&M @ Texas Tech -14
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech +9
Texas @ Texas A&M +21.5
Ok. St. @ Oklahoma -10.5
Anything on there that has you booking a flight to Vegas this weekend?
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Joel Schmidt Jul 07 09
Geez, I hope Bo keeps his kids from fixating on the KU game like us fans seem to...get caught looking too far ahead and we WILL lose to TT, Mizzou, and maybe even Baylor...in my humble opinion. Guess that's just the luxury of being a fan.
I agree, the VT line is encouraging, as much as odds-makers can be encouraging. And I don't mind the underdog role. We can shock some people. When was the last time TT was held to less than 3 TDs? We could break a record or two...
caveman99 Jul 08 09
These odds are encouraging to me. Although I think that the pressure to get bets on both sides takes away more impartiality than Brandon thinks, it is a good early sign since betting hasn't really begun in full.