Hawkins Alone in Predicting 10 wins
5 comments so far
June 24, 2009 by
We here at the Big Red Network have dubbed this time of year the “bad news season” in college football, when outside of recruiting most of the real news items about college football are negative (like suspensions, transfers, or arrests). But at your newsstands and in the blogosphere it could also be called prediction season. And with several predictions on record a consensus begins to form as to how teams will finish.
Usually there’s some variability in the picks being made. But one thing seems to be consistent across all of the predictions – Colorado does not look like a ten-win team to anyone. That’s probably bad news for CU head coach Dan Hawkins, who predicted “ten wins and no excuses” for his team in 2009 back in December. The consensus says that CU will play five teams that are better than the Buffaloes, three of them on the road. CU plays at Texas, at Oklahoma State, and at West Virginia. Colorado will likely be underdogs in all three contests. It’s a pretty rare occurrence in college football that the better team loses at home. CU also hosts Kansas and Nebraska. Phil Steele, the man most bullish on the Buffs, might see an upset of Kansas but it appears he’d take Nebraska to win in Boulder.
Obviously, there’s a reason they play the games. Predictions go wrong all the time. No one had Oklahoma winning the national championship in 2000 coming off of a 7-5 season. But assuming the masses have it right for Colorado, what might that mean for Dan Hawkins? Did he put himself in jeopardy with such a bold prediction?
Yes and No. Hawkins finished with more losses than wins in all three seasons in Colorado. He needs a winning season in 2009 regardless. But chances are nine wins would be sufficient to keep his job, regardless of how bold his prediction. The bigger question is whether seven or eight wins will do the trick. An 8-5 record could provide a stay of execution because it represents clear progress for the team, but 7-6 is probably no guarantee of future employment, especially when it could mean a losing record in the Big 12. And if the head coach has angered the fans by overpromising and underdelivering, he might find 2009 to be his last season in Boulder.
There may be other factors in the equation. Considering the “rivalry” with Nebraska, a win in the final contest of the season against the Huskers (even if CU is only 6-6), might buy Hawkins another year. You also have to watch the play of quarterback Cody Hawkins, the coach’s son. If Hawkins matures into a good player, his father could be retained simply to keep him on the roster.
But one thing seems clear, Hawkins is alone in thinking his team will win ten games.
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caveman99 Jun 24 09
Yeah I am not buying into this team at all. Should have a pretty good ground game, but not much else other than that. No real threats at WR to get those chain moving plays on 3rd and Long, nor an ability to stretch the field very often. Not to mention the QB's aren't very good either, above average I guess if I am being kind. If CU doesn't stay on schedule during drives, it will struggle to score points.
On Defense, this team will really struggle. They return starters at only 3-4 positions, MLB,WLB, and RCB. The D-Line has 3 players around 265lbs, both ends and a DT, and only one DT at 295. For a unit that struggled against the run last year, gave up 166 yds/game in a pass happy Big XII, and lost Hypolite and got smaller, this is a big issue. On top of all of that, CU is switching to a 3-4 this year to try and take advantage of the one spot on the team that has returning depth, LB. The issue is that they don't have that space eating DT to all the LB's to play the gaps. I just see teams running all day on CU and that doesn't bode well for them.
darren Jun 24 09
Coaches that raise the stakes on themselves like Hawkins did just KNOW they are operating on borrowed time. It's a desperate act, in my opinion.
On paper, CU does appear to have a somewhat better team returning in 2009, at least offensively. I don't buy them a bit on D, however. 10 wins? Heh. I'd take that action.
Side note - funny how Boise State has stayed even or played better since Hawkins departure and CU has not gotten markedly better since his arrival there. Just saying...
Dwayne Jun 24 09
Predicting and expecting are two different things. Pelini doesn't predict anything, but expects his team to win them all. If I'm a coach and I'm predicting, why not predict all wins? Predicting a win just doesn't sound right. Didn't one of the Cavaliers' players predict a win in the playoffs, and didn't they lose? Wins and losses on Saturday are only a reflection of how a team prepares during the week and in the off season.
Joel Schmidt Jun 24 09
I say let the big-mouth dig his own grave. Then again, we do seem to be pretty lucky against him, so I can't decide if this is good for NU or not...cuz that's really the only way that I'd care about what Hawkins says.
A run-based team with no WRs, and a couple so-so QBs against our new D? I like them odds.
Holden Jun 30 09
What's the guy supposed to say? "Uhhhh...er...we'll win four or five games, I'm confident of that?" Unlike Lincoln, where each and every seat will have a corn-fed fanny warming it no matter how helpless the martyr team du jour is, Folsom has had many fans disguised as empty seats, lately.
It as much an economic question as it is pride in Boulder...people WANT Hawkins to succeed but question whether or not he's capable of recruiting top-tier Big 12 talent. Yes, the guy's in a jam but who, since Bill McCartney, has had any success there? And they RAN McCartney OUT OF TOWN because of his religious beliefs!!!
Unlike Nebraska, where their several year bout with mediocrity was an aberration, CU football faces LOTS of competition for fan dollars and an administration that WANTS to win but hasn't much of a clue how to nurture any sort of winning tradition.
Face it, folks, if CU had it's athletic house in order, who would choose playing football in Lincoln over Boulder? Alas, the average sorority house at CU is stocked with more talent and I doubt any coach worth his salt would see that changing, no matter HOW good he thought he was.
CU should be happy if Hawkins can stay above the Mendoza line...while keeping a squeaky clean program--something he's done--well, the clean part, anyway.... Sorry, but I have to get back to what's REALLY important ant CU--getting Ward Churchill his stinkin' job back! See what I mean?