Early Picks Putting Nebraska and Kansas Neck and Neck
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June 25, 2009 by
The consensus of opinion to this point by college football prognosticators is that Kansas and Nebraska will finish neck and neck at about twenty-third in the country. Sure one set of picks or another can diverge from that substantially, but when averaged together, that’s about where things land. A year ago the twentieth through twenty-fourth team all came from BCS conferences and all finished with 9-4 records. So assuming a similar case in 2009, that would put each Big 12 North school at 9-4.
The rankings would suggest losses by Nebraska to Oklahoma and Virginia Tech. Going purely by the rankings, the next most likely loss would be at Kansas and then either Texas Tech or a post-season opponent. The most likely losses for Kansas (as implied by the rankings) would be to Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska, Texas Tech, and/or a post-season opponent.
Now one post-season opponent for the Big 12 North champion would seem certain to be Oklahoma or Texas. The winner of the Big 12 North (which would seem likely to be the winner of the Nebraska-Kansas game in Lawrence) would be the likely loser in that contest. One scenario that fits would have Kansas claiming the North by going 0-4 against the Big 12 South and 9-0 everywhere else. Another would have KU stealing one victory against a Big 12 South opponent, but losing one or two games elsewhere. It’s the latter scenario that would most likely send Nebraska back to the Big 12 Championship game.
Instead of putting too much stock in the overall consensus, one could instead look at some of the more accurate forecasters of college football in recent years. Phil Steele has the best prediction record over the past five years or over the past ten. Athlon has been more accurate in the past three years and both put Nebraska ahead of Kansas.by a pretty good margin. Lawrence’s own Jesse Newell does a pretty good dissection of how Nebraska can eclipse Kansas on the strength of its defense.
Last year, Steele had pushed Kansas down to fourth in the Big 12 North for 2009. He seemed to be the lone person outside Nebraska in putting the Huskers as high as second in the North (which is pretty much what happened as the Huskers were runner-up by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker to Missouri). Everyone else had NU between third and fifth place. So perhaps he’ll again be the only guy who gets it right.
A top 25 final ranking would certainly be progress for Nebraska, as would an appearance in the conference title game. For that to happen, a lot of people might be right about the record (9-4), but perhaps only a few will be right about who will be division champion.
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Matt Jun 25 09
I wouldn't read too much into Virgina Tech being a top-10 team other than helping to hype their non-conference schedule. VT could likely be 2-2 going into conference play, and I wouldn't be shocked to see Nebraska hand them their second loss.
As for Oklahoma...we'll have to see how much this team has matured. Wins against both of the Techs on our schedule would do well to help with that level of maturity, and should we take one from Oklahoma, (other than the trap game at Baylor) I won't be worried about the rest of our conference schedule.
Do I have rose-colored glasses on? Maybe, but they're only ever-so-slightly tinted rose. Having perhaps one of the top two defenses in the conference and likely a top ten defense in NCAA football will help set expectations high.
caveman99 Jun 25 09
I think NU getting 10 wins this year is definately within reason and I think is the bar of expectations. Repeating 9-4 would be OK, as long as I saw progress in the season such as no blow out losses. With what I thin should be a top 30 D or better, I don't see why 10 wins shouldn't be expected. Especially with 1 or 2 postseason games.