Which Game in 2009 Scares You the Most?

7 comments so far May 19, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

By most accounts Nebraska is a ranked team to start 2009. Athlon Sports has the Huskers the highest so far at #16 in their preseason poll and most others list Nebraska in the 20-26 range.

Any close look at a preseason Top 25 will reveal how much guesswork is truly involved. Are you buying Ole Miss as a top ten team based on victories over Florida and Texas Tech last year? What about Virginia Tech in the top five? It makes some sense to start them there based on momentum but I, for one, will be surprised to see them end there.

While I do think Nebraska will end 2009 as a ranked team, the Huskers are in a similar boat. They weren't a Top 25 team at the end of 2008 and any ranking in 2009, with a new QB and unproven linebackers, requires a good bit of belief that Bo Pelini is "building something" in Lincoln, momentum, an intangible. That and a good schedule.

Does Nebraska have a good schedule? Yes and no. On the surface it looks easier than last year with Texas Tech and Missouri supposedly taking steps back, Iowa State and Kansas State starting over and Oklahoma at home. Last year there really weren't any "scare games" for Nebraska. Part of that was the unknown of a new team under a new coach and another part of it was that even in a best case scenario Nebraska looked like a definitive underdog to Oklahoma, Texas Tech and probably Missouri (although their Memorial Stadium losing streak even tempered that a bit). Everything else was, at worst, a toss-up.

Not the case this year. Pelini's solid first year has fostered expectations and with expectations comes the real worry of being upset. There are a few games like that on the schedule. Last week I made the case that the Sun Belt trifecta might not represent the walk in the park for a developing Nebraska team that you'd normally expect early in the season. While all those games have the potential to be tougher than anticipated, none of them will be viewed as a truly scary game. I can't say the same for the following games (ranked in order of scariness):

1. @Baylor - 10.31.09
It's just a coincidence that the scariest game falls on Halloween, but I have real concerns about the Bears. In case you missed it Robert Griffin gave up track to focus on the football, Baylor has a strength training program of note now, and it's not like the Cornhuskers crushed the Bears last year, trailing at the half before shutting out BU in the second half. All in all Baylor, just like Nebraska, has a good deal of buzz around the program and going on the road is enough to make me think that the Bears are going to have a better chance at the win than they'll be given credit for coming into the game. That is essentially the definition of a scare game.

2. @Missouri - 10.3.09
I hate Missouri more than most but even though my brain says rage I have a hard time buying a precipitous drop off in Columbia. Sure they have to replace Daniel, Maclin and Coffman and have the fewest returning starters in the Big 12, but Nebraska's only two returning starters better than the Tigers in that category. Moving the game to Thursday helps Nebraska in terms of national spotlight (and my own personal excitement for the game), but it probably didn't make it any easier for the Huskers to come out with a win. You could say that this is the Linda Blair of "scariest games" because if Nebraska is to challenge for the Big 12 North with Kansas, this one already feels like a must win.

3. Texas Tech - 10.17.09
Much like Missouri, the Red Raiders have to replace some of the best offensive talent in school history. But the same "system" label that Mike Leach has recently railed against and the media and scouts use to discount Texas Tech quarterbacks has kept the Red Raiders from ever falling too far from the top. (Tech is the only team to have a winning record in every year of the Big 12's existence.) The Red Raiders have won three straight against Nebraska and you know that they'll get their yards and points. Last year Pelini and Watson minimized the damage by dominating the clock and there should be even more focus on the ground game this year but I'm still wary of what Leach is capable of especially when expectations are a little lower and Tech is back being the hunter rather than the hunted.

November looks like the month where Nebraska could make a splash, playing Oklahoma at home and then facing Kansas on the road in what most are viewing as the Big 12 North title game, but there won't be much of a splash to be made if they can't make it through October. Right now you'd make Nebraska a slight to moderate favorite in the three games listed above and that's why you can find the Huskers among the top two teams in the North.

Staying there, however, is going to take some ghostbusting.

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