The Natural Progression Of Fans
2 comments so far
May 22, 2009 by
I used to have this progression in my mind for how Bo Pelini was going to get the Huskers to win a National Championship. It was more like a "five year plan" that a business or company would strive for. First, win the games you should absolutely win right out of the gate, in other words, beat all the easy teams. Looking at our schedule last year, I predicted before the season began that we should have been looking at eight regular season wins, and possibly a ninth with a bowl game. It seems reasonable, as a fan, to then picture or imagine that the Huskers would just add one more win each year until they reached the National Championship Game. This idea, is in fact, garbage.
To finish out the natural progression of the fan's thought process, then we would win the North Division the next year and lose in the Big 12 Championship game (win all the easy games, and possibly one hard game). Next, Nebraska would win the Big 12 Championship, and lose in a BCS bowl (lose only one or two hard games). After that, we see our team play in a National Championship game (lose only one regular season game or less, and lose the last game of the year). And finally, Pelini would lead us to win the Big One (lose no games in a season).
Since the inception of the BCS, no team has ever won a National Championship with that progression. And I don't know why I had it in my mind that it would seem reasonable. At some point, the teams that have won it all just made a leap and they get to the big dance. If you want a clue that parity is over, just look at the fact that of the 11 BCS National Champions, 5 of them averaged five wins less in the previous year.
That's right, five of the last 11 champions went from 7, 8, or 9 wins to 13 or 14 wins the very next year. In fact, the average turnaround time from single digit wins to a National Championship has been around 3 years since the BCS started. If you take out Florida State (who had 13 years between their 1999 Championship and a single digit winning season), the average BCS Champion has made a 5 win swing in two years. No wonder fans have been impatient when a coach doesn't get to double digit wins fast enough.
So what about Bo's comments that he thinks this team has the ability to win all the games this year? Or how about the fans who think we're poised to make a breakthrough? I say to them, the polls actually appear to know something. The average start in the polls for a future National Champion has been around #7. And to top it all off, the lowest a team dropped at any point in the season was an average around #8. (Please note, I couldn't find all the old Coaches and AP polls for all the years).
That doesn't mean there's not hope. Oklahoma started their 2000 season at #19, LSU in 2003 was at #15. The fact of the matter is, if you're good enough to win 10 or 11 games, there is almost nothing stopping you from winning every time you take the field.
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Greg Morrow May 23 09
Tom,
mix in your reasonable viewpoint of progression. Then add a reasonable comparison of talent, both athletic and coaching, with Nebraska's opponents. Season with logical assumptions that the systems the Coaches are teaching and using to play call are the absolute best, for this level. (I'm waiting for my pizza dough to rise, while I poke this out.)
Bake...
Expectations wise, I'm somewhere between '02's and '07's teams. After '01's "wheels have fallen off the cart," (quote taken from Solich) I thought there was still good talent on the team, just happened to be all Solich's recruits. By May of '07, I fully expected the Corn to forcibly enter the Top 10 and meaningfully compete with the Southern champ. I'm pretty sure I wasn't the only one, that May of '07.
I think the team's somewhere between those, by my reasonable expectation, mixed with unconditional love.
That's not to imply I think the team's going to go .500 or south. I think the team's talent is again comparable with the '03 team, just more evenly distributed. That team's talent was weighted toward the defensive side, players, coaches and schemes.
This year's team has relative strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball. A little more balanced.
Not taking to account all the unnecessary drama of the year '03, the '03 team was about the average for an average Nebraska team, up to then.
I can't reasonably predict that this team is better than that, man for man.
tom May 26 09
It is my personal opinion that we have a team that can provide about the same level of play on the field last year (minus some of the blowouts). We have a good shot at getting the same record as last year, just with some of the wins being a little less close and some of the losses being a little closer. For now, I say 8 regular season wins, 9 with a bowl game. I would be more than content with that - almost ecstatic by the end of the year.