The Equation for a Championship Part 2
7 comments so far
May 6, 2009 by
Last week, I took a look at the BCS winners from 1998-2002 (Tennessee, Florida State, Oklahoma, Miami, and Ohio State), and broke down the most obvious pieces of their Championship status. The one overarching theme every year was great coaching. In 1998 and 1999, the coach carried a tradition of winning years before. In 2000 and 2002, the coach continued a winning tradition for years afterward. 2001 was the odd ball out with a coach receiving a ready-made team from a great recruiter and coach and declining into disappointment. The first five years didn't have a repeat winner in the BCS, but the next five showed that a couple of teams were staring to figure out the equation to get to the big game.
LSU (2003, 2007) » Defiant Coaching + Defensive Strengths = Just Get to the Game » Nick Saban and Les Miles are both outspoken coaches who always hold strong to their opinions and ideas of football. In 2003, Saban stuck to his guns from many previous year's twists and turns and it paid off. LSU's team had a defense lead by Will Muschamp that totally dominated at almost every point in the season. They knew if they could just get to the BCS Championship game, they would take the game. In 2007, Miles took many unconventional chances to get his shot. Defensively, they seemed porous at times, but it was defense that would make the plays for them when they needed it. They were a team that also knew that if they just could get there, they could win it.
USC (2004) » Pete Carroll + The BEST Players = Dynasty » The 2004 Trojans are argued by many to be the best team in college football history going wire to wire as #1. So many of that team's players are currently in the NFL that it would be hard to argue against the team's talent. They so easily handled the Sooners in the Championship Game that they left little doubt they belonged in the number one spot. With Carroll's win at all costs attitude and coaching style, most people could see that they were poised to win it all early in the season.
Texas (2005) » Preparation + Pick of the best 300 = Consistent Winning » Texas vindicated the Big 12 against USC while ending the season as the only undefeated team. They were ranked most of the year behind #1 USC, which only fueled their desire to play in what many consider the best college football game ever. Mack Brown, considered to be one of the top recruiters in the country, had put his team into a winning mindset. The previous four seasons and next three years after this game ended with double digit wins. His ability to tap into Texas's other natural resource (football players) and turn those players into potential NFL talent has got him to where he is today. He has his pick of the top 300 recruits in the state, having to pass on talents like Chase Daniel and Todd Reesing. With only 26 losses over the last ten years, he is the only coach who has coached his current team every year of the Big 12 in the BCS era.
Florida (2006, 2008) » Spread Attack + NFL caliber defense = The New Fad » In 2006, the Gators played the toughest schedule in the country to get their shot against the Ohio State Buckeyes. Urban Meyer's second year was excellent on both sides of the ball, with only one loss against Auburn en route to a National Championship. His team was able to disrupt Ohio State's Troy Smith into having one of his worst performances and parlaying that into a win. That year saw flashes of what Tim Tebow would become with Meyer giving him a couple of shots on the field for experience. It paid off in 2007 with a prolific offensive year and in 2008 when Tebow led Florida to another Championship. Their offense was the subject of most of the attention last year, but their solid defense was only tested by Ole Miss back in September and nobody else the rest of the year. The spread has taken hold in college football, but defense still wins Championships.
Nebraska (?) » Excellent Coaching + NFL Talent = A National Championship » The two constants in all the years of the BCS haven't been the system or even necessarily the recruiting. It's been about coaches who have done the most with their talent by developing players who are picked up by the NFL. There is little doubt that teams who have many players picked up were good in the previous years. Rarely do you see a team have 4-5 players drafted and not have had a great record in the previous years. Bo Pelini has to turn these guys into NFL Caliber players whether or not they end up getting drafted. Having the top player in the country at as few as one or two positions can clearly get a team to the national championship game.
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Andy May 06 09
You make an interesting point at the end. At this point (when real games are still months away), it would appear that we have a top player at his position in Suh. If Suh follows up his solid junior year with what we all hope is an even better senior year, he may well be the best DT in the country. His presence alone elevates the DEs playmaking ability, and frees up our backers to make more tackles. Couple that with what should be a solid 1-2 punch at running back and an experienced offensive line, and I like our chances to be a contender in '09. At the very least, it would be nice to be back in the conversation.
Andy May 06 09
Speaking of being in the conversation, on ESPN's College Football Live, they were discussing Kansas' chances in the upcoming season, and listed the 'big games' on the KU schedule. The only Big 12 games not listed as a 'big game' were Iowa State and...Nebraska. They felt KSU was a bigger challenge for KU than the Huskers. I found that very amusing.
tom May 06 09
Every year a team won the championship had a player that was a potential top 10 pick in the NFL draft. But in addition, they had players that you can see in the NFL now. I tend to agree with the DXP bloggers - 2010 looks more like our big chance at greatness. But I think a better record this year will go a long way towards making the Huskers in line for a top five finish in the nation in '10.
ESPN talking about KU's chances is amusing, considering most people I talk to seem to think NU/KU is going to be the Big 12 North decider. KSU isn't going to be a bigger challenge for anyone over the Huskers.
Bill in Iowa May 07 09
There is no doubt that great coaching is the x factor in most cases, but it certainly doesn't hurt to live in or near a talent rich state of 4-5 star talent. That being said, I think NU's greatest obstacle is getting recruits and keeping our talented staff in tact. I am very scared Watson will leave and the offense takes a couple steps backward just as the Defense starts to resemble the blackshirts of old. As for recruits, I think as we re-establish a winning tradition and a signature style of play...they will come. By signature style, I mean for instance, an aggressive styled defense, and an offense that can play a smash mouth running game or a finesse passing attack. For example, I think big time WR's are a little scared to sign on, because they think we might revert back to an all running attack. As we truly establish an offensive signature, they can sign on visualizing the role they can play in this offense.
tom May 08 09
That's a good observation on the receivers. I hadn't really noticed that until you said something. We've only got a handful of 4-5 star WR's interested in us right now. I hope Wats can do something to change that.
Austin May 08 09
I think NU will sign a big-time WR when we produce a big-time NFL WR. NU's only big-time WR was Irving Fyrar, which was a long time ago.
We've had some good college WR's, but we need some Belitnikoff finalists, Heisman finalists, or first round draft-type WRs. Crouch doesn't count, because he wasn't a WR in college and didn't follow through as a WR in the NFL. Purify isn't that caliber of a player either.
As far as championships go... I don't NU will get there this year. We might be in the picture for a week or two, but that's as far as I would go. We have a good chance a conference championship though. We have a good amount of proven "go-to" players... Suh, Helu, McNeil, Henery, Hickman, Turner. Holt will have a big year too.
Greg Morrow May 08 09
"Bo Pelini has to turn these guys into NFL Caliber players whether or not they end up getting drafted."
I think the point is, having good players who play great. Like how Rich Gannon was described, when it all came together for him, in a system that was also perfect for him as a veteran.
I like to describe it as a player reaching his athletic potential, or ceiling, while in school.
Nebraska still has to blaze their own trail, in that regard. Team and talent will improve in increments. Right now, be that 9-4 team again, while reeling in the blowout disparities. Like that '93 Orange Bowl, when Nebraska lost by a more respectable 27-14 to "Free Shoes" and it seemed like Nebraska might have a better chance, the next year...
Only EVERYBODY knows Nebraska's different. Present and future recruits will embrace the culture and to a lesser extent, the climate. Or, they won't and not all do.
Just don't show 'em Nebraska's roster. "Nebraska really has 22 DBs 22 LBs and 18 WRs?!"