Phil Steele likes Nebraska. Kansas? Not so much.
22 comments so far
May 30, 2009 by
If you're out and about this weekend you might want to stop by your local big box book retailer or neighborhood corner store to hunt for the just released Phil Steele's College Football Preview 2009. I got my copy yesterday, ran around for a bit screaming like an idiot, and by the time I opened the first page football season--still 98 days away--seemed like it was within reach.
In terms of college football excitement in the May to July range, you really get two big days. The release of the newest edition of NCAA Football from EA Sports is like Christmas and getting Phil Steele is like a second birthday. Steele isn't shy about telling you just how much information is packed into his annual guide nor how accurate he is--"Most Accurate Preseason Magazine the Last 10 Years!" the cover screams--and that could be off-putting if he wasn't right. But he is right and he's also bullish on Nebraska in 2009.
Here's what he writes in his capsule preview of the Huskers (in all its glorious, Steele shorthand glory):
Nebraska has just 13 returning starters and loses 23 lettermen including their record setting QB which ties them for the 3rd least experienced team in the Big 12. They do have the top 4 tacklers back and I rate their O-line and D-line each #2 in the Big 12 overall giving them the best line play in the North (by far). While Nebraska did not play in the Big 12 title game they were +112 ypg in conf play (best of the North) and tied for the North Title despite being -11 in TO's. The schedule is not easy but the Huskers have the most talent of the North teams this year.
The preview guru likes Nebraska to win the North and face Texas in the Big 12 title game--that should be fun in Arlington--and that's well within the realm of consensus chalk but fear not, dear reader, Steele never met a limb he didn't go out on. Behind Nebraska in the North he has a tie for second between Colorado and Kansas State, Kansas finishing fourth with their brutal conference schedule, and Missouri fifth.
Overall, Steele ranks Nebraska 22nd in his preseason Top 40--actually his projected order of finish after factoring in the schedule--and 19th in the power poll, a measure of overall talent.
Now, get out there and find the magazine. Or, if you're patient enough, you can order it here.
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darren May 30 09
Any and all references to "The Jerk" must be appreciated and celebrated. Wow, I love that movie.
Oh, an Steele is great too. :-)
Greg Morrow May 30 09
To the effect of, "I'm mad at my mother, she owes me some money, so I'm having her work on my transmission." That just killed me, back then!
Off of Martin's "Let's Get Small."
I'll have to nab Steele copy, pronto. They sell out pretty quick, that or not too many get stocked at the bookstore.
In the shown paragraph, Steele fairly discounts losing the Ganz meister and other starters. I interpret that to mean he thinks the team is tough and athletic enough to be a clean level up, from the rest of the north.
Kinda hard to buy his view that both of Nebraska's lines are 2nd in the conference. If true, I'd interpret that as a strength of program indicator. Best lines = best programs. That'll be proven yea or nay, by game 3.
He probably also looked at how teams usually improve in year 2, of a new Coach's program.
Guess I'll have to pick it up, to find out!
Brandon May 30 09
Greg,
I would agree with your assessment re: returning offensive starters. It seems like Phil is willing to overlook some of the losses in favor of that ol' 2nd year momentum. In almost any sort of offensive experience measure--returning starters, returning % of yards, etc--NU is going to rank pretty low. Defense also has a good bit of guesswork as well behind the front four but it's pretty clear that Steele likes the talent level at Nebraska.
Mike May 30 09
Nebraska first is an easy one :-)
But the rest of his B12 north is a mess. Kansas State is a train wreck. Snyder can't actually play on the field, and thats where they need help. KSU will be lucky if it is even bowl-eligible. Colorado could be an up and coming team, but for them, that means 6 wins.
Kansas has a brutal schedule, they will lose to all 3 south teams and to Nebraska, but that still leaves them 8-4 and the second-best team in the north. Missouri will win 6 or 7 games, and of course Iowa State won't go anywhere.
JBLING22 May 30 09
Thank you MIKE.. you pretty much said what I was going to say... Although I think Colorado will be the pushing for the North Title with NU...
Kansas was good for one year, and they had the easiest schedule you can have in the south.. That is not a coincidence... Reesing will be tough but 3 losses to the south should all but put them out of contention..maybe they win one of them out of pure luck... perhaps Texas tech, but will still probably get beat by at least one north team..
NU is really going to be a push team.. Its kind of scary
Matt May 30 09
Actually, Phil pretty much stole what I posted here a few months ago--we should come very close to winning out (save for Oklahoma and maybe VA Tech), and we'll play Texas in the Big XII Title Game in Arlington (hmmm, wonder how much the officiating will be skewed against Nebraska when you factor in Jerry's $$$$).
Only difference is that I have us beating Texas (not that far-fetched considering their running game will likely be in the crapper again this year and their secondary is still a joke) and going to a BCS game at 11-2.
Justin Smith May 30 09
All you KU haters are just used to dismissing KU football because they have rarely been good. Things are different now. Mangino has it rolling. KU will win the north and play for the big 12 championship. KU will destroy Nebraska in Lawrence, (just like the last 2 encounters. Nebraska fans are grasping onto history. I don't expect you to understand KU football or give it any credit, so it doesn't bother me. The proof will be on the field. Phil Steele can kiss my white ass.
JBLING22 May 30 09
Mr. Smith I honestly don't think any team in the North could win more than one game out of KUs schedule against south teams.. KU was better than NU overall the last couple of years, except maybe last, Ill definately give you that, but it also dosn't mean they were good...We just were that bad too..
Also i will admit that KU is different team than they have been in the past, its just I dont think anyone in the big twelve can constantly beat OU and Texas, and T-Tech can beat or get beat by anyone..
Also it is very possible that KU beat NU in Lawerence, but even with that win NU might only lose two games in the Big Twelve, KU probably loses 3 to the south and they still arn't the North Champ, sorry!!
And apparently things do bother you, or you wouldn't tell Steele to kiss ur arse!!
Brandon May 30 09
Matt,
Jerry Jones played at Arkansas so maybe he hates Texas too?
This Nebraska season is a tough one for me to predict on paper. On paper, NU is certainly worse off offensively than they were last year. We can confidently assume that NU will get their yards, but the how and who is yet to be determined.
The defense in theory should be much improved with another year of seasoning, but on paper I don't see a huge difference from this year to last. That's not to say NU won't improve, in fact I think they will, but going down the defensive two-deep I don't see that much difference between 08 and 09 other than the 'nother year older angle. So, again, the "how much" better comes into play.
The schedule is essentially of the same difficulty so I when I start to think about number of wins or losses there are a lot of options in play, but I'd take 11-2.
Matt May 30 09
Brandon--not so much, especially since his bread is buttered by the Texas faithful. Take away his alumni status, and he's barely indistinguishable from a Texas homer.
At least, that's what I've observed being down here in the DFW area since the Millennium Bug ended the world as we know it, FWIW.
Not a fan of the Big XII office being in Dallas (too close to Austin and their tea-sipping and taxpayer money) and it seems that ever since the relocation, the North schools (and Nebraska in particular) have been on the losing end of policy decisions.
Add to this the screw jobs that we've gotten when playing Texas in the past (especially south of the Mason-Dixon line) and it's not a question of if Nebraska will be screwed by the refs, it's a question of what the over/under will be on how many piss-poor calls are made in Texas' favor.
And no, I'm not bitter much. ;)
Brandon May 30 09
Matt,
Of course. I suppose you can't run a business--even if that business is "America's Team"--without the support of the Texas Exes.
Bill in Iowa May 31 09
I would not say NU is worse off offensively than last year...at least not yet. We haven't seen Lee play a down in a game situation, but it would not surprise me if he ends up being just as if not better than Ganz. The o-line could easily be better and more deep than last year. Tight end position as we know is going to be better and deeper than last year. Running back will be improved just for the sake that Helu and Castille will be one year older and wiser. Of course, wide receiver position is a question mark, but after the spring game I am not so worried. I think at WR we have a lot more speed and athleticism as a whole than in years past...it's just a question of experience and performing on the field. The questions at QB and WR should be balanced by an ever improving run game and a complimentary tight end passing game. We will be able to attack every area of the field. And lets not forget special teams. I expect a vast improvement in special teams this year, even though last year was mostly improved.
Brandon Jun 01 09
Bill,
I think we're saying the same thing but coming from different directions. I would say NU is worse off offensively "right now" simply because there are so many unknowns, the sort of thing that factors into prediction. Would I be shocked if, at the end of the year, NU had similar production to 08? Not at all. Watson is a proven commodity, and I think your point about Helu/Castille is an even bigger reason for optimism.
Jason Jun 01 09
FYI, some KU fans are discussing this article over here.
They, of course, dispute Steele's projection for the Jayhawks.
JBLING22 Jun 01 09
I do understand the KU fans complaints.. Number 4 in the North is a little out of hand.. I would think.. But its not out of reach.. 3 tough games in the south probably give KU at least two losses minimum, Im guessing a third loss either comes from The third south team, or any of the north teams.
Im with Steele on the fact that its going to be a hard year on KU just due to the tough conference schedule but I still dont think they will drop from the top 3..
My Review of the North
K-state-- Unless Snyder pulls a magic wand out of his arse, i wouldn't expect anything spectacular.. Yes they will probably beat a team or two they shouldn't but not enough to stand out all season
Iowa State- I dont think Iowa State has any horses left in the stable, assuming they had any to begin with.. Im guessing conference door mat goes to ISU, KSU, or A&M
Missouri- We know Missou has a few athletes in their stable, the question will be how well did they develop into winners.. Chase Daniel/ Maclin/ Hood/ Moore and Coffman will be extremely hard to replace due to the fact that they barely left the field.. In-experience will have to grow very quick on both sides of the field..
Colorado- Ok so Dan Hawkins can recruit but well else can he do?? CU will again win a game or two they shouldn't this year, but I would think the majority of their games will be up for grabs.. They could either win those games and be on top, or faulter like they have in the past.. I guess what Im trying to say is that this team will probably be hit or miss all year long...
KU- Is probably in the best shape offensively in the North with CU close behind them.. Their biggest problem is a extremely painful schedule vs the south members of the Big Twelve. Reesing is a stud, and Meier will play somewhere on Sundays.. If they can win out against north teams they have a chance at the North Title, but even one loss might put them out of contention
NU- As much as I would like to say NU is the best team in the North, its a hard team to predict.. Any time you replace a qb, regardless of how good he looks in the spring game, its going to be an iffy year. The top recieving threats are also gone at WR, thankfully it appears a good group of tight ends will soften the blow.. While Suh is a monster and we should have excellent line play on both sides of the ball, the defense could still be a little scary.. (Imagine the defense with out Suh and it starts to become frigtening)We do have DBs with experience but does that translate into better play?? I guess well see..
K-State/ Iowa State Bottom
Colorado- Mid
KU/ NU/ Missouri - Mid to top of North Rankings
Wickedson Jun 01 09
Who's Phil Steele?
Ackos Jun 02 09
I simply do not understand the lack of respect that Mizzery is getting. Across the board they are at least NUs equal in talent and experience. The North will end up a muddled mess between NU, KU, Mizzery and CU, with the division winner with 3 or 4 losses and will get crushed by the south in the CCG.
JBLING22 Jun 02 09
I dont think its a lack of respect on Mizzery its just the fact that they lost a stud at qb, and two studs in Maclin, and Coffman that were the main reason Mizzery was any good.. WE too lost a qb and our main recieving corps but they werent all all-americans
OU7times Jun 02 09
Lots of football to be played between Florida Atlantic and Colorado to be worried about getting "screwed" by the refs in a game who's participants are yet to be known.
If you are really worried about playing Texas in Texas, try playing them every year in Dallas at a so called 'neutral field'.
Take care of your football business on the field and you should be able to win in Texas.
Bryan Wheeler Jun 03 09
I think you Husker fans are forgetting that KU returns senior quarterback Todd Reesing, with an arsenal of receivers (Briscoe, Wilson, Meier), not to mention future first-team All-American Darrell Stuckey.
Also, the game will be played in Lawrence, where Nebraska has been blown out in embarrassing form the past two trips. I don't see Nebraska getting past Missouri or Colorado on the road either...
The last time Steele predicted Nebraska to win the North was 2007. We all know how that ended... Nebraska is 8-4 or 7-5 at best with 6-6 being a possibility. Losses to Virginia Tech, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Kansas are pretty much a given considering where these games will be played.
I wouldn't discount Colorado or Baylor (Robert Griffin is better than any QB Nebraska has).
JBLING22 Jun 04 09
Robert Griffin is better than Reesing as well Wheeler...
JBLING22 Jun 04 09
Also Texas Tech game is played at NU.. If you remember right last year with Harrell and Crabtree we played them within one bad throw... AND KU will also have at least 3 losses to the South and one or two losses to the north..