Scare Factor Provides Reality Check

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Coming off of a strong finish to the 2008 season and what appears to be a promising spring, it’s easy to get excited about the prospects for the Huskers in the 2009 season. Nevertheless, there are sure to be many who don’t share the optimism of Husker fans when it comes to projecting wins and losses. While it would be fun to simply label them “haters”, it might be healthy to try to get a sense of why they wouldn’t necessarily see Nebraska the same way that fans of the team do.

One way to think about how good a team is, is by thinking about which players on the team truly scare its opponents. No doubt, nose tackle Ndamukong Suh is a concern for any Husker opponent. Based on how he finished the year, running back Roy Helu could also scare teams but his season statistics (803 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns) wouldn’t necessarily scare everyone. Running back Quentin Castille is an imposing figure, but wasn’t necessarily an unstoppable one. His 4.4 yard per carry average and 6 touchdowns don’t jump off the page. Mike McNeil seems like a nice weapon, but his 442 yards and 6 touchdowns also might not strike fear in opponents. No other returning receiver topped 400 yards a year ago. No offensive lineman or defensive player (beyond Suh) has any reputation at this point to frighten the opposition. The idea of Zac Lee being as fast as a running back could really hurt opposing teams. So could the speed of Rex Burkhead. But so far, we have yet to see that on the field.

The fact of the matter is this Husker team still has a lot to prove. Contrast that with a team like Oklahoma that brings back players with All-American talent like Sam Bradford, Jermaine Gresham, and Gerald McCoy. Not to mention All-Big 12 guys like Jeremy Beal, Matt Clapp, Travis Lewis, DeMarco Murray, and Trent Williams and it’s clear why the Huskers are 100-1 to win the national championship while the Sooners are about 4.5 to 1.

That’s not to suggest that the Huskers can’t compete. In fact, they seem likely to be a favorite to win the Big 12 North. And history has shown that anything can happen in the Big 12 championship game. But it’s probably not yet time to say “we’re back” either. Another nine win season would be an achievement.

Next year? That will be another (and hopefully better) story.

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Comments 11 comments so far

Ty Apr 24 09

What I see from the team and this article is a statement of a well-balanced team. Perhaps we don't have the 5 stars or the household names, but a well-balanced attack can win a lot of games. That is my hope for 2009.

iggy Apr 24 09

We may not scare anyone in the media or even among our 2009 opponents, but it is that lack of respect that will come back to haunt them.

When we knock off VT in their house people across the country will stand up and take notice.

tom Apr 24 09

Steve, I know exactly where you are coming from. I think the personnel question of who scares opponents is valid. Of course we think we've got some great guys because we study them like crazy, but even last year I think we had more "scary" players than we do now. My fright in all of this is that in fact we will not have the players to do better than last year (at least in terms of win-losses).

Matt Apr 24 09

What I believe last year and the spring is showing us, too, is that our coaching staff is perhaps one of the best in the Big XII outright.

If we achieve 9 or more wins again this year (I'm leaning toward 11-2 and a BCS bowl--figure out the losses and who I think will be in the title game, and I think you'll see where I'm coming from) they will have proven we have THE best coaching staff in the conference.

And even though this game is about the "Jimmys" and "Joes", excellent coaching and recruiting can compensate for a lack of 5-Star "Joes" compared to a well-bankrolled opponent.

Greg Morrow Apr 25 09

Nebraska doesn't scare anybody?
Then hopefully the potential annoyance factor makes up for that.
Just as satisfying and A LOT messier!

The team just has to win. That's all that needs to happen. To bring a physical dimension to it, would be nice. Osborne knew teams dreaded playing the Cornhuskers. Not only because of the game itself, but also because of the aftermath. Aches and broken confidence lasting weeks later.

There's almost nothing about the current program that "scares" opposing teams and their fans.
Almost nothing except for one key factor.
The intense hatred by elements of Colorado fans and a seemingly increasing number of Missouri fans, display wide open their soft underbelly- an equally intense FEAR!

In relative terms, both programs have had their biggest successes during this time of Nebraska's generational scale, historical mediocrity.
For Nebraska to be tangibly improved AND gimmick free, sweeps Big 12 North teams back to a tidy bin.
The secret is, Nebraska only has to improve a little more, athletically. Sufficient athletes may actually be on station.
To be put into the right schemes, schemes and coaching they believe in...
That's about too much for those Northern teams and fans to conceive of- without the raw poison of hate and fear.
Yeah, baby!

teamster Apr 25 09

I look for Nebraska to stay about the same in wins and losses for this coming season. We don't have enough seasoned talent and seasoned depth just yet. As in 4th and 5th year seasoned talent throughout the roster. Where are all the upper classmen? What kind of attrition took them out? We're very young. Very few upperclassmen.

During the spring practice period, I visited Colorado and Missouri boards to see what was happening in their camps. Those people are totally obsessed by Nebraska topics. They must peruse the Nebraska papers and forums continuously. Their forums are loaded with nonstop Nebraska tidbits and wrath but very sketchy on their own teams info. To me that says they are very, very worried for their future. Even though their discussions are directed to continuously dismiss Nebraska. You don't have to be a psychoanalyst to make a read on their ongoing and heightened alert of everything Husker.

And KSU has so much baggage, they show little concern for anybody but their own house. Someone must have turned out the lights because they are very silent at this time.

Greg Morrow Apr 25 09

teamster,
Thanks, for checking out and reporting on those teams fansites. Nicely amusing!
I check out Colorado's "netbuffs" and the Boulder paper, about every 4 months, but I never post. I'd quickly find myself playing the role of troll, so I just won't do it. You see Nebraska fans continuously "trollin" on those sites. I've seen Nebraska fans practically dominate them, especially when Colorado lost to Montana State. Brutal and funny, but not respectable.
If you post, I'm sure you're a diplomatic representative.

I think you could make a case that Nebraska's in position to overachieve. Talent and experience at IB, TE and the O-line. Unproven talent on the hoof at X and Z, but talent nonetheless.
Ditto for the D-line and DBs and you have starters at linebacker who might have to alternate, this year.
Point is, everywhere except QB, you have nice "systemic" experience.
Really, it's on one Zac Lee and the wideouts.
Granted though, that represents a huge "?"

Frank Ford Apr 28 09

The speed of Rex Burkhead hurt opposing teams? No, rex is not a burner. I've seen Rex at high school games and he is more of an Emmitt Smith type player(slower and slashing), than a Barry Sanders back. He's probably 1-2/10 of a sec slower than Nebraska would like, but makes up for that by being a multiple threat. At Plano he enjoyed having All-State front line players. When he comes to Nebraska the front line will not have the same advantage as Plano did at the HS level. Look for average if not redshirt action from Rex. Plano is one of those High Schools that can make a player look far superior than they are, they have a great "team" tradition and this time the team made Rex a legend in Texas. Had Rex played for some lesser team, he would not have enjoyed the same success. Sorry.

Reed McCann Apr 29 09

Rex was great when he was in Pee Wee, Rex was great in JR High, Rex was great in HS, Rex will be great in college and beyond...he always stood out, no matter how bad or good the team was around him. Plano has always had a small scrappy line, nothing special, not much straight ahead, clearing out movement and there was never been much line blocking at the second level. When we played against Plano Rex had 248 of his 258 total yards after first contact, which tells you two things, how good he is and how little room he had to manuever. I played other sports with him and he has always been special, and won't except losing, he wants it more than you. Rex was always great, even when Plano wasn't. Rex carried the team on his shoulders when he needed to. You could have put Rex on the worst team in the league and they would be contenders because of his ability and attitude. It is probably more likely that if Plano had some lineman named to all state it was because they blocked for Rex, not because Rex ran behind them. I would have loved to have blocked for Rex, he would have mad me look better than I was, ha. Good Luck Rex. I will be cheering for you from my Ice Palace.

Lance Schmidt May 07 09

Rex was a great High School athlete, especially in football. He will be an average college football player, and if he survives the punishment of college he probably will be facing what Graham Harrell is facing right now...overlooked in the draft and scratching and clawing to be noticed.
In fact I predict Rex will have a Bill Bates sort of odyssey after college...where no team wanted him and by shear will power made it onto the Dallas Cowboys. Rex will be in a free-agency spot and maybe he'll luck out and a team will pick him up for special teams.
Rex is a fine young man, with great work ethic, and maybe i sound like Simon Cowell by stating reality...but lets be real - Rex will be blue-collar, "bring-your-lunch-pail" type person that will be solid/very average, not super-above average that Nebraska was hoping to get.
Now I will get the usual "you're drinking hateraid from other posters"...so I'll be Polyanna...REX IS THE NEXT JOHNNY RODGERS!!!! ... not

Lance Schmidt May 07 09

Rex was a great High School athlete, especially in football. He will be an average college football player, and if he survives the punishment of college he probably will be facing what Graham Harrell is facing right now...overlooked in the draft and scratching and clawing to be noticed.
In fact I predict Rex will have a Bill Bates sort of odyssey after college...where no team wanted him and by shear will power made it onto the Dallas Cowboys. Rex will be in a free-agency spot and maybe he'll luck out and a team will pick him up for special teams.
Rex is a fine young man, with great work ethic, and maybe i sound like Simon Cowell by stating reality...but lets be real - Rex will be blue-collar, "bring-your-lunch-pail" type person that will be solid/very average, not super-above average that Nebraska was hoping to get.
Now I will get the usual "you're drinking hateraid from other posters"...so I'll be Polyanna...REX IS THE NEXT JOHNNY RODGERS!!!! ... not

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