Starry Eyed on the Eve of Signing Day

9 comments so far February 3, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

Signing Day is a lot like Boxing Day for me: I know that some people some places celebrate it with all the fervor of a second Christmas and I also know that I'm not one of those people.

Recruiting has always seemed too subjective for my tastes. Player A is coming to Nebraska? Great, we love him. Player B is going somewhere else? Fine, forget him. The problem is I'm not sure how else a fan can be expected to respond to all the wooing, committing, decommitting, and non-qualifying. In the end, every year 20 or so new players are going to show up at Dear Old Nebraska U, some of them will exceed expectations, others won't and that's about the extent of what we know from year to year.

That said, I recognize that recruiting is important. Outside of the playoff debate, recruiting rankings is one of college football's age old debates. Do they matter? Are they rigged? Isn't it all just a scheme to keep us paying for coverage? At Nebraska, just like anywhere else, we've seen enough five-star talents fall short and enough walk-ons succeed to make whatever case you could care to make.

In the wake of the just completed 2008 season, Dr. Saturday's (aka Matt Hinton) case was that individual recruiting rankings do matter and he makes a pretty convincing argument.

In his breakdown of the 2008 All-American's by their Rivals rankings coming out of high school Hinton found that four- and five-star recruits made up 45.6% of the All-Americans this season. So, less than half of the players on the various AA teams out there came from the top two tiers of the player rankings. Score one for the "stars and a couple of dimes will get you a cup of coffee"--yeah, I stole that line--camp, right?

Not necessarily when you consider that those 45.6% of All-American players in 2008 came from only 12.9% of the general population of players. How many stars a player has attached to his name coming out of high school isn't a guarantee of success but overall in this light it looks like a pretty good indicator.

So how does Nebraska fit into this picture? About where you'd expect. The Huskers have never been the five-star factory that some of the more advantageously located teams like Texas and Miaimi have been but they always seem to get their share of guys who set the message boards afire. Over the past four years, Nebraska has averaged 8 players per year who ranked as a four-star or higher according to Rivals. At present, 13 such players are on the roster. Do you know who they are, the guys who are (at least tenuously) statistically more likely to have an impact on your team?

I didn't. So that's why I decided to look it up. Below is a list of Nebraska's current four-plus star players and a very brief summation of where they're at in their Husker careers:

*****
Baker Steinkuhler DT (08) - The lone 5-star player left on Nebraska's roster with the departure of Marlon Luckly and he'll remain that way with no 5-star players in the current recruiting class (again, according to Rivals, I'm sticking with them for ease of comparison). Steinkuhler redshirted his first year and with NU's 09 class a bit short on DT's looks to be a factor right away next year.

****
Will Compton LB (08) - To the chagrin of many, redshirted in 2008 but expectations remain high.

Larry Asante S (07) - A starter at safety all season, Asante finished second on the team in tackles just like he did in 2007.

Quentin Castille RB (07) - A huge Gator Bowl has Castille's stock going into 2009 as high as it's ever been.

Jaivorio Burkes OL (07) - Full of promise after making the Big 12 All-Freshman team in 2007 and playing meaningful snaps in 2008.

Blake Lawrence LB (07) - Racked up 21 tackles in 2008 in spot duty. Lawrence will get a long look at linebacker but wouldn't be surprised if he was overtaken by some of the newcomers.

Zac Lee QB (07) - Had only two pass attempts in 2008 but is viewed as one of the co-favorites to replace Joe Ganz at quarterback.

Niles Paul WR (07) - Comes back for 2009 as NU's leading punt returner and the second most productive receiver behind Menelik Holt.

William Yancy DE (07) - Recorded the first and only tackle of his career to date against New Mexico State. Should be in the mix on the defensive line next year.

Ricky Thenarse DB (06) - The resident hard-hitting hammer on the defensive side of the ball, Thenarse recorded 24 tackels (5 TFL), 1 INT, 1 pass break-up and 2 sacks.

Phillip Dillard LB (05) - The most experienced returning linebacker, Dillard finished 10th on the team in tackles after being slowed by injury late in the season.

Chris Brooks WR (05) - Caught his first career TD against Kansas this year, one of only three receptions in his career. A big--nay, huge--senior season might be needed to end his career on a high note.

Ndamukong Suh DT (05) - Nebraska's best player, one of the best at his position heading into 2009, and a legitimate preseason All-American selection.

So what, ultimately does that group represent? With a few exceptions and assumptions you're looking at the core of the 2009 Huskers. Take out Brooks, Yancy and possibly Lee (depending on the QB race) and every player on that list is being counted by many as a major contributor for 2009. Of course you have to supplement that list with some of the three-star and under talent--Alex Henery, Roy Helu, a non-Lee QB, and the brothers Anthony (Blue and West) all come immediately to mind--but out of 13 players you've got around 8 or 9 starters and one likely All-American, all from the top tiers of your past four recruiting classes.

Some of that talent never ends up making it for various reasons--remember David Whitmore, Kevin Dixon, Joseph Townsend?--but overall the guys you drool over tomorrow will more than likely be the ones winning you over in the years to come.

Recruit rankings aren't the be all end all but, in the end, they fare pretty well as a predictor of future success. Wednesday will mean a lot of fanfare for the likes of Rex Burkhead, Jason Ankrah, Cody Green, Dijon Washington, and Chris Williams. It will also, perhaps justifiably, mean a lot of pressure.

Did you enjoy this article?

Get Husker news by email
Follow us on Twitter

NextPrevious