Assumptions About Nebraska to Color Every Off-Season Conversation: Quarterback Play

8 comments so far February 17, 2009 by Brandon Vogel

Every 2009 prediction you see from now until July for Nebraska is going to be based largely on the measureables. How many starters are returning? Who do they have to replace and are there legitimate candidates in place to do that? When they lost, did they lose close or lose big last year? Were there any gross statistical aberrations--i.e. fumble recoveries, penalties, etc.--that you can normally expect to be corrected from year to year? How difficult is the schedule?

It's not a perfect system but if you're a national columnist or a national publication charged with evaluating 120 teams it's certainly the easiest. If I had to randomly assess the makeup of all the preaseason prognostication out there I'd set it at about 80% measureables to 20% assumptions, that 20% generally used to account for momentum.

It's different for fans.

As a fan, after you've considered and weighted all of the measureables, any sort of assessment is much more likely to take assumptions into account. Why? Two reasons: 1) Because on the micro level we probably know more about the nuts and bolts of Nebraska football than a Stewart Mandel or Ivan Maisel and are therefore better equipped (or maybe just able) to take a logical chance that isn't necessarily supported on paper, and 2) In most cases this supports the outcome we'd eventually like to see.

That's not a perfect system either but it's one we'll be wrestling with for the next few months so let's go ahead and identify our primary foe over the next few months--assumptions for 2009. How you feel about the questions to follow will largely determine your assessment of the Cornhuskers for next season.

This was an easy game to play in 2008. The overarching assumption for the Cornhuskers heading into last season was that the defense would improve and in all reality it wasn't much of an assumption at all. From a measureables point of view we had Pelini's track record as a defensive coordinator. On the assumption side of the ledger the Blackshirts were so bad in 2007 that any major step backward became almost a statistical impossibility. Simple competence would've marked a major improvement and if you could believe that Nebraska would be at least competent defensively--again, how couldn't you?--then you could go on to predict seven, eight, or nine wins without much need to defend yourself. It was essentially a straight, level two-foot putt. It was possible to miss but not likely.

The assumptions heading into 2009 are quite a bit bigger. There are likely hundreds of tiny assumptions that go into any one season--good returning players only get better is one such example--but for ease of use over the next couple of weeks we'll look at three of the biggest ones. The purpose here is not to answer the questions--at this stage there is no answer, that's why they're assumptions--but rather to identify them for the purpose of improving our eventual predictions for Nebraska football in the year 2 A.P. (that'd be Anno Pelini). First up, the quarterback race.

Assumption #1: Whoever wins the quarterback battle will be at least an average to good Big 12 quarterback.
The critical mass at this point seems to have Nebraska slated as a preseason Top 25 team and Big 12 North frontrunner even taking into account that the Huskers have to find a replacement for the now criminally underappreciated Joe Ganz. How big of an assumption is that? Depends on your perspective.

On the one hand the pool of potential quarterbacks for 2009 has all of 10 pass attempts between them (8 for Witt, 2 for Lee). That's not much to go on. Do we really know anything about the clubhouse leaders Witt and Lee other than they've had the most time under Shawn Watson? No. We know even less about Kody Spano and Cody Green. At least Spano has a redshirt year under his belt and some presumed familiarity with the system. In the case of Green, taking him into serious account as a potential starter in year one of a team expected to challenge for a North title is assuming he's a transcendent talent of the Frazier/Tebow variety and...well...not many high school quarterbacks are that in year one or ever.

On the other hand, what are we expecting Nebraska's new QB to be? Four of the top eight passers in the Big 12 last year are now gone and nobody expects Witt/Lee/Green/Spano (henceforth I'm just going to morph these four into one super prospective QB known as Witlee Greenspan) to be in the company of Bradford or McCoy and few probably expect even Robinson- or Reesing-level output right away from the Huskers' signal caller.

But consider that in the 9-4 season just past, Joe Ganz was the 6th most efficient passer in the ridiculously talented Big 12 last year. What would it take to get the same sort of ranking--and presumably similar production in a conference context--next year? Maybe not as much as you'd think.

Without a doubt the top four quarterbacks in the Big 12 right now are Bradford, McCoy, Robinson and Reesing. At this point Witlee Greenspan would have to exceed all expectations to be considered of the same class as those four but that's okay, all we're shooting for is the top six, right? That leaves Witlee Greenspan having to beat out the following QBs (*assumed starter): Robert Griffin, Baylor; Jerrod Johnson, A&M; Austin Arnaud, ISU; Cody Hawkins, CU; Blaine Gabbert*, MU; Carson Coffman*, KSU; and Taylor Potts*, TT to be the 6th best in the league.

Three teams, two of them divisional foes, are in the same boat as Nebraska, having to replace accomplished QBs with guys who have been in the system but have a small sample size attached to their name. From that group we know this much: 1) Blaine Gabbert is the most highly touted of the new QBs and that's a wild card of variable value, 2) Tech's quarterback will put up numbers but nobody thinks the Raiders will be in the hunt for a Big 12 South title, and 3) KSU has bigger problems than who is playing quarterback. Again, this is just an assumption but I'll put Witlee Greenspan on even footing with that group.

Of the rest of that second tier of QBs, Griffin and Johnson both look like major athletic talents who have yet to convert that ability into wins but may have shown signs of moving in that direction. Arnaud and Hawkins? You can answer that question with this question: Would you trade super prospect Witlee Greenspan for either of those two (and their Big 12 experience) right now? If you answered yes we disagree and I guess you have to account for those two as well. However, like any good horseplayer must eventually do, I'm tossing them for this race.

With that all in mind we can get a clearer picture of what exactly we're asking Witlee Greenspan to be in 2009 if we're to expect Nebraska to be a serious contender in the North (as I do): He probably needs to be one of the top two quarterbacks to debut in the conference next year and he probably needs to be as good/better than either Robert Griffin or Jerrod Johnson. That would put the Nebraska quarterback right in the 5, 6, 7 range overall in the conference. Does that sound unreasonable?

It's too early to tell but (sadly) we've got a lot of time to figure it all out. For now, take solace in knowing that simply knowing is half the battle.

Next Week - Assumption #2: The defense will, yet again, be improved.

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