Would a Gator Bowl Victory Be a Mixed Blessing for Bo Pelini?
19 comments so far
December 11, 2008 by
I’m on the record as loving the Huskers’ presence in the Gator Bowl. Quite simply, it’s the best bowl for a Big 12 team this year outside of the BCS. The Husker program appears to have a lot of momentum right now. A win in that game can probably only help recruiting both this February and probably even for the class of 2010. So how could there be any downside to winning this game?
Nine wins is a mark that has meant a lot to Husker fans over the years. That’s because the Huskers saw three head coaches over 32 seasons string together nothing but nine-win seasons. It kept the Huskers consistently in or near the top 10. It kept the Huskers in contention for major bowl games. That streak made the Husker program the standard that other programs over the years (like Colorado and Florida State) aspired to emulate.
But in some ways, it also distorted Husker fans’ perception of what a successful season was. Tom Osborne was once quoted as saying his toughest job as head coach was convincing fans that ten wins was not a losing season. Nebraska might be the only place in the country where a coach could produce as many wins as Frank Solich did and still get fired.
That’s why part of me is a bit concerned about what a Gator Bowl win means for Bo Pelini. The Huskers stand to lose a lot to graduation this year that may be hard to immediately replace. Joe Ganz has been phenomenal. Do we really think that the next quarterback at Nebraska is going to perform at his level? Nate Swift and Todd Peterson seem awfully hard to replace. Sure, the emergence of Roy Helu is reason to be bullish for the offense next year. The offensive line, should also be a team strength. But no running back can play every snap for you and if nothing else, Marlon Lucky was sound and extremely capable of producing on the field. He also knows a bit more about securing the football than Quentin Castille. The fact is, there are questions about the offense next year.
Defensively, the Huskers will probably take a step forward in a lot of areas. But in perhaps the most important area – the defensive line, they’ll lose a lot in Zach Potter and Ty Steinkuhler. And God forbid Ndamukong Suh comes out early. That would be a big loss for the NU defense. The Huskers have their work cut out for themselves on defense too.
The schedule doesn’t get all that much easier either. The Huskers travel to Blacksburg to face Virginia Tech, Columbia (where they haven’t won since Eric Crouch’s senior year) to face Missouri, Lawrence to face Kansas, Boulder to face Colorado, and Waco to face a surprisingly game Baylor team. Sure Texas Tech and Oklahoma come to Lincoln, but those teams both won in their last visit to the Cornhusker state.
The fact is, getting through the season with eight wins again will be an even tougher task in 2009 than it was in 2008. And then they’d need to win another bowl game if they wanted to match their win total from this season if the Gator Bowl ends in victory. And if the Huskers appear to be treading water or take a step backwards in terms of wins. What will happen? Will Husker fans turn on Bo Pelini? Will they scare off recruits by booing in the stadium or leaving games early? I'd hope not, but it's hard to rule it out entirely.
Ask Ron Prince or Charlie Weiss if their early success helped them in subsequent years. You may find that it only raised expectations to levels that their programs weren’t prepared to meet. Maybe I should be more optimistic about 2009. But the fact is, all that 2009 needs to be is another year for the Husker program to re-establish itself under Bo Pelini. And Bo’s toughest job could be convincing fans that eight wins is not a losing season.
I’ll root for the Huskers on New Years’ Day. But let’s just say any celebrating will be done in moderation.
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Joe White Dec 11 08
I understand where you are coming from, and you are welcome to celebrate our victory in the Gator Bowl in moderation if you wish. I on the other hand, will be attending the game with my wife and daughters (9and 5). It will be my girls first Nebraska game as we live in TN. When we win the Gator Bowl, we will be celebrating full force!
I encourage you to live in the moment, and enjoy it for what it is. The future has a way of taking care of itself; with or without our worry. :)
Flatlander Dec 11 08
Well, you've certainly give us something to chew on Steve. I don't think the fans will turn on Pelini even if they go 7-5 or (god forbid) 6-6 next year because Pelini is committed and he's bringing the whole 'Husker family' together. Callahan was the exact opposite and I think we all know Solich got a raw deal from the AD.
On the bright side, while they lose Ganz we have to be optimistic about the long-term outlook for leaders like Cody Green. And if they play smart ball (ie. no penalties, few turnovers) and stay in it mentally, they'll be competitive with all but the upper echelon. It's a long process and I don't think people will lose sight of that.
darren Dec 11 08
I completely understand your concerns, Steve. This is why working with you on BRN is so great. You can see, think, feel the concerns of so many fans. Already, there is concern among many...looking to next year.
Hey, the Big 12 will always provide its share of tough games and schedules. And players will come and go. Those things are constant. And recently, bowls have been a bit of a variable. So, I'm relishing this one.
I think of this Gator Bowl as a spring board to better things. I think of the 2005 Alamo Bowl as a reason the 2006 Huskers got better.
Not sure what happened from the 2006 Cotton Bowl to the 2007, exactly.
Either way, I'm happy NU is in the Gator, we'll just have to see how next season plays out.
Scott Dec 11 08
What if....what if.....what if.
I think some good points are made but the "what if" game can be played for every season, every game and every play. That would get pretty annoying. Bo said it in one of his first press conferences, that we would get hit in the mouth a few times and we'll need to hit back when that happens. He also implied that it could get worse before it gets better. I'm not worried about next year. I'm worried about the Gator Bowl. When the Gator Bowl is done, I won't worry about anything until the next game. NU could go 4-8 next year. They could also go 10-2.
What if they do?
WyHuskerFan Dec 11 08
High expectations are the hallmark of Husker fans. Are they unreasonable? I think not, this is not Kansas afterall. 8-4 is a solid record and showed good progression, I think that's all Husker fans want for now. A victory in the Gator Bowl would be icing for Bo's first year. Next years ingredients are already stirring in the pot. With the returning class and some redshirts getting their opportunity, I think most fans will be pleased with what they see in the spring game. Ganz could have had a spectacular year had he started last year. For that reason alone I hope they take a long look at a Fr/Soph starting at QB. Scuttlebutt I hear about the returning receivers is they catch everything in practice, so should be reliable on gameday. If the defense is able to take a step or two forward next year, the offensive can afford to take a step back, however, I believe they'll be up to the challenge. For now I will hoot and holler for this team to put together 4 qtrs and leave knowing they have set the program on the right track. Git er done!
bnahusker Dec 11 08
Do you need a hug this morning Steve?
The Win/Loss record is only part of the story.
I don't know how many Husker fans would agree with me but, the improved attitude and effort shown on the field this year, would have made a 6-6 season a success in my book.
We lost all of the games that I 'knew' that we would loose. We won all of the games that I 'knew' that we would win. We split the two (VT, KU) that I 'knew' would be the difference between an OK season and a good season (Record wise) Add to this mix the game that they took to Lubbock. Taking TT to OT may have been more impressive than any other on-field achievement this year. Not as exciting as the CU/NU finish, but more impressive.
So long as The Huskers represent themselves well, the true fans will continue their support.
The Plug-n-play situation at Linebacker this year is the best example of my long-term expectations of the Bo era. He found the best fit, and let them do their thing.
Just going into the season 'knowing' that the Huskers can compete for Division/Conference/National titles and that they'll continue to show effort on the field is all that reasonable fans can expect.
C'ya in Jacksonville!
GBR!
Bob
GFW Dec 11 08
win win win. that simple.
Bill in Iowa Dec 11 08
The true test of the Pelini era will be when he is playing all of HIS recruits (who have grown up in his system). I think we fans are smart enough to realize when we are playing poorly because of coaching or because we just don't have the talent on the field. If next year, the QB, receivers, and running backs are not peforming at stellar levels, then I hope we are smart enough to adjust are expectations. But we really will not know what to expect until the first 2-3 games or more.
Take this year as an example. Think about the offensive predictions last spring. From what I remember reading, our receiver crew was going to be servicable at best and the weakest link on offense. Peterson and Swift were not flashy guys with enough speed to cause much damage to opposing defenses. We didn't know if anyone would step forward as a receiver in the tight end position. That was a huge question mark until we heard McNeil's name called a hundred times for a touchdown. Lucky was expected to run for another 1000 yards, although a lot of people were questioning even then if Helu might be better than Lucky. The offensive line was supposed to be completely dominating and a leader in a power running game attack. The power running game never happened and the line just didn't really come together at all until arguably after the Missouri game. Then they started establishomg a nice spread running game with Helu at the helm. And finally, there was a lot of optimism around Ganz's ablity to throw 300 yards a game, but we were scared he would also throw 3 pics a game. Turned out, he managed the ball better than what was expected.
On defense, a lot of people thought the linebacking crew would be the weakest link in the defense, there were many concerns about the defensive line and many people thought the secondary would be solid. Well, even after Dixon got kicked off the team and Barry went down, everyone saw the D-line become the stongest unit on defense. And I would argue that with Glenn and Dillard in as starters, the LB crew was very very solid. When they weren't starting and we turned to Holt, Koehler, Lawrence, and Wortman, I still think they were a stronger unit than the secondary. And it turned out, the secondary as a unit was the weakest link on defense, blowing assignments and giving up big passing plays.
All of that is to say, generally, I think there is a lot of reason for optimism from the untested younger players, but their is definately a lot of big shoes to fill. Hopefully, we will be pleasantly surprised by some of the players, just like we were this year, but I am sure there will be some disapointments too. Wow...I can't believe I am talking about next year already! Lets go win the Gator Bowl!
HuskerDeck Dec 11 08
Steve our big concern this year was to go bowling. Enjoy the moment and let next year take care of itself. I want us to beat Clemson and then do the best we can in 2009. Just as Bill in Iowa said There will be some great surprises and some disappointments just like there are every year. I firmly believe we will be very competitive in 2009 with this coaching staff and that is all I ask for.
The ole Swede and Husker in South Arkansas
Mario Dec 11 08
Great article Steve! One of the more reasonable and non-sunshine pumping ones I've read in a while.
Will NU fans boo if the Huskers start to stumble? You better bet on it? Is that right to do? Well, it depends. Will people leave the stadium if things start to go down hill for NU? Probably. Such are the times we live in. To be quite honest, most Husker fans probably don't have an idea of what those gerat Husker teams were like. We live in an age where coaches are getting fired left and right at places like Auburn which don't have the near the history and expactations that NU does.
Bo needs to win game next year. We HAVE to beat MU and KU - on the road. NU needs to start looking less disorganized and more like a team that can put 4 qtrs. together against good teams. That's something that was VERY disappointing this year. How much does that have to do with "talent", I don't know. The argument can be made that putting 4 qtrs. together has NOTHING to do with talent. The CU game was a microcosm of the season - 2 steps forward, 1 step back. That was a team we should have blown out. In all actuality - it was a loss. No one should ever expect a 57 yd. FG to go through. We all know how that saved this season from being a total disappointment. Think for a sec. how missing that 57 yd FG would have changed the perception of where this program is under Bo. The fact of the matter is, that one kick got us into a new year;s day bowl and kep the momentum going. We live in a "what have you done for me lately" world and NU needs to start winning against ranked teams. How else do you explain the lack of respect in the TV appearances this year? I think at one point ISU /KSU was picked over NU for a TV broadcast. That lack of national respect is just another symptom of how far we need to go.
NU needs to win the games that matter esp. at HOME!
tom Dec 11 08
As long as Dr. Tom is running the athletic department, don't expect any rash decisions to make any difference in what Bo Pelini is doing. I know that he's only on until 2010, but if you don't think he's going to help pick a successor that will continue his level practices, you're crazy. What we're going to see is that the Huskers are going to give plenty of time to Pelini to earn his shot. In this day and age, five to eight years is an eternity in coaching, but don't be surprised if we see that here, and very little will change that.
Brandon Dec 11 08
I'll give you credit Steve, this is something that's been on my mind all season but I've bitten my tongue to keep from expressing my concerns. Two months ago I felt pressure for Pelini to succeed THIS year for all the reasons you mentioned. On paper, Nebraska doesn't look better next year than they do this year. I thought about that all season long.
Now, however, I'm feeling strangely confident about 09. The North is basically going to be up for grabs--I've seen Kansas listed as a tentative favorite but that seems to be for lack of a better, surer option--and I think that if Witt/Lee/Spano/Green emerges as at least a viable first year QB then Nebraska should be on track to be better in 09. A lot hinges on that development but given the recent track record of redshirt players in the Big 12 I'm a lot more willing to pony up on that roll of the dice then I was in September.
omarhuskerfan Dec 11 08
A great insight. At a point a couple of years ago I realized what the "grestest fan" label really meant. I noticed it didn't make us the most valient like those poor lion fans, but being the greatest fans means the most invested with the team.
NU fans are like the crazy parent at the little league game, always ready to cheer when the team does well, but if ready to question a coach if the team does poorly. If anything we are too invested. A good thing is that the coach isn't selected by an election but by a very even headed AD. (I might add here that NU fans rarely are those same parents who throw a punch).
Those things being said I love what Bo has been able to do with this team. My 'source' in the condictioning staff mentioned that this is one of the slowest teams he has ever seen. So with Bo here to working his vodoo is awesome.
JBLING22 Dec 11 08
Mario
I respect your idea, but I don't think the colorado game was a 2 steps forward one step back.. Colorado has played even the best Husker teams tough, even when they themselves that year were quite bad. It was stated before the game that their team could lose every game and beat nebraska and it would still be considered a winning season around buffalo ville.. The Colorado game was not a loss, it was a win. You forget that all sorts of things went bad for NU, (THINKING FIRST OF THE FAKE Field Goal-TD SCENARIO, 2nd of my boy Ganz taking that late sack) and we tried to give it up.. But someone came up with a play, be inthe kicker or the quarterback, thats what has to be done..
I agree with your " what have we done for me lately" comment though.. sadly thats what fans seems to think most.. but honestly I was impressed with the way the team kept fighting.. Its easy to get behind a team that wining but I also believe its easy to get behind a team that dosn't give up, Like this team did this year.. Each time we got hit, (MISSOU, OU) we came back swinging... Would I have liked to see more wins against ranked teams?? YOU BET.. Remember though that we lost to the ACC Champion, THE BIG TWELVE CHAMPION, THE NORTH DIVISION CHAMPION, and TEXAS TECH WHO ALSO TIED FOR THE SOUTH DIVIVION, and was a game against OKLAHOMA away from playing in a NC game.(although they choked).. THATS four losses, to teams that won or shared their division or conference.. It would have been great to win someone of those, but when looking at it that way its not so bad...
ILL take a hard working ok team, over a underachieving great team anyday...(look at USC, they have more talent than some NFL teams and still arn't capable of wining them all)
I just hope husker fans will stay behind Bo through the good times and the bad.. Remember Bill didn't get fired for one bad year , he got fired for 3 out 4 bad years.. And I remember a guy named Osborn that didn't always have the greatest record at the begining of his career, last I know that turned out alright.....
P.S. See you guys heading to the game in Jacksonville... Lets be loud!!
Ryan Dec 12 08
Steve,
This is a very good post.
I'm on board with Darren's first comments. And I know he'll agree when I say that if Steve's foresight is as sharp as his encyclopedic Husker knowledge then we better work on our patience.
Bill in Iowa Dec 12 08
Steve, judging from all the posts, you certainly hit a nerve here. I am wondering where you see improvement on next years team and where you see a possible slide (I know you mentioned a few positions in the article). For instance, here is my short summary of next year's team:
RB - same to possible improvement Helu gets a lot more time. Castille is used situationally. Does Mendoza step up as a key contributor? What about redshirt freshmen?
QB - big question mark. We really don't know anything good or bad. Just that we have 3 qb's with their own strengths/weaknesses who have been groomed in the system. Does Wat's use them situationally? Lee for a better running game and Witt for a pass heavy game?
TE - solid with McNeil, anyone else going to step up?
OL - possible improvement. Lots of younger guys with playing time ready to step in.
WR - somewhat of a question, but Holt and Paul have been groomed with playing time to step into starting roles. I think they will be more than servicable and might even be a big surprise.
DL - I look to be about the same on DL if Suh comes back, Barry will take back his rush end spot, Allen takes Potter's spot at base, we have to replace Stein...maybe with another Stein?
LB - same to possible improvement, Dillard is back, Lawrence has game time experience, young studs might be ready to fill rolls as R-Freshmen. Koehler, May, and Holt with game experience coming back
CB - same to possible improvement, lose Murillo but get Blue back, a lot of guys with experience in the system coming back, redshirt fresheman could contribute
S - same to possible improvement, everyone comes back with more experience, does Culbert and Thenarse make a splash after one full year in the Pelini system? Redshirt freshman may contribute.
Mario Dec 12 08
JBLING22,
I like your response. You make some good points. It's definitely a very optimistic look at things.
My concerns have probably more to do with the Nebraska football program as a whole that with just Bo and gang. For starters:
(1)The AD's Office: Although Tom Osborne is my hero, I'm not totally sold on him having what it takes to be an overall effective AD in this day and age. Just look at what programs like OU and Ut are doing on multiple fronts with their Athletic Depts: Huge expansion projects, constant upgrades and coaches salaries to keep pace with the top echelon of coaches. What's Bo getting paid? $1.1mill? Sure, he's a rookie coach and is probably getting paid accordingly, but when the rookie coach at Nebraska makes less than the rookie coach at Baylor, that's saying something. I think right now Bo is the 3rd lowest paid coach in the B12!! I mean has NU simply turned over the conference to Ut, OU, Ttech and OSU? Coming back to Osborne - great HOF coach, does not look like a cutting edge AD at this point. NU needs to expand Memorial stadium which quite frankly looks like a dump for the most part. I was at the CU game 2 years ago and I can’t begin to tell you how decrepid the east stadium looks. Put a wrap-around upper deck from the south to north stadiums. Get the capacity up to 100k+. Isn’t there a waiting list for season tickets? If so, then they recoup their $$ in no time, right? Okay, I know it’s not that simple, but at least lets have a plan to move forward. Look what Boon Pickens U is doing. Same with aTm and KU. Bottom line is NU needs to recapture it’s leadership role in the B12 and TO needs to step up on that end.
(2)Bo Pelini: Let me get this straight. I completely agree that since it's Bo's first season he should be given some leeway until about midway through year 2, but at the same time you want to see enough nuggets in that first year to know that you've struck gold, and..... what Bo has shown this year doesn't quite equate to that. For one, it took 2 bad losses to VT and MU for them to "get" that their personnel didn't match the system! Remember the hot air coming out of Eckeler’s mouth about the great defensive schemes for the MU game? Hello! What were they doing all fall and spring? What were Watson and Gilmore doing? Didn't they "know" their personnel? What about Cotton getting a totally wrong read on his OL being able to smash mouth? Again, a head scratchier. It's almost like they knew a little more than you and I about their personnel. Okay, fine, maybe it is more complicated than we think but when Paul Johnson goes 9-2 in his first season with a RADICAL CHANGE in offensive philosophy and beats a highly ranked GA team it makes it real hard to cut people like Bo some slack. After all, this is not 2004 where we were going through drastic offensive philosophy changes. While it might look like the defense played well, it can only be so if you compare it to the 2007 disaster. But why compare it to the WORST defensive season in NU history? Why should NU set the bar so low? So what if it was Cozlahan's mess? We still had talent -- better talent than to look so lost time and time again well into the last game of the season. Look, this is not an indictment on Pelini - just a call out to all Husker fans that we need to start demanding more of this program.....
Or it will forever slip into mediocrity.
For me the future does not look so rosy. Our current recruiting class says it all. While it might look good to some, it's simply not at the level that OU, Ut, U$C, tOSU, UA and UF are at. Not even close. For that matter, we're still looking up at TTech, OSU and MU!! Wow! Until we can consistently get enough 4 and 5* talent - enough difference makers on O and D, we'll be well short of taking that next step to the National Championship. Bo needs to get those stud DL and LB’s. That’s really where championships are won. Big 12 offenses are going to be prolific. The teams that have the edge defensively are the ones who’ll be able to be consistenyl at the top. If we can get Latu Heimuli (or Cory Adams), Jarvis Giles and another stud at WR then maybe we start to close the gap but until then, it’s going to be a real uphill battle.
Greg Morrow Dec 13 08
"Nebraska might be the only place in the country where a coach could produce as many wins as Frank Solich did and still get fired."
Steve, there's no "might" about it.
On this topic, I'll defer to Herm Edwards- "you play to...." Bo has no choice.
Along with being the most polite, Nebraska fans are known for being the most knowledgeable (at least inside the stadium).
But, here I think we need to distinguish between the "ham and eggers" like myself and the big check writing donors, who had the ear of one Steve Pederson, late fall of '03. Pederson had facilities to build and, correct me if I'm wrong, Pederson was under an ultimatum from the Chancellery and of course, the benefactors.
I understand your concerns though, Steve. I think for fans though, there's no clearer contrast from Callahan to Pelini. Or even, Solich to Pelini. A major disappoint for me was, I thought Pelini had reinvigorated Solich and even the team, at the time. For all that to get flushed, was tough.
In this era, the mindset of the team is paramount over the idiosyncrasies (of us). With recruiting, how the team presents itself to prospects is also a component of what a prospect sees of the total program. Which is why recruits get player hosts.
Interesting, that if Nebraska wins, they'll have the best record by percentage, since '03.
There's a "crispness" to the team now, that's obviously effort driven. Guys have been forced to work harder, not just smarter. Maybe, the team has a belief in itself and it's systems, that was missing.
In this modern Big 12 Conference, the schedule will remain challenging. I think the danger might be more the possibility of Pelini moving on, once he's established his maturity and proficiency as an HC. That was a concern I had when Solich was fired. You now had coaching "guns for hire," as opposed to lifelong loyalists. Will Pelini be a lifelong loyalist? Or, will he tire of the constant probing scrutiny, that doesn't go away?
Nebraska fans should be mindful of our stoic roots and a college football team that was emblematic of it. That perspective and optimism towards the team will carry through the upcoming seasons.
Besides, Clemson appears reinspired and could actually win the game...
Steve Dec 15 08
A lot to chew on here guys and thanks for the feedback. Sorry I also didn't respond sooner. Responding to Bill in Iowa, I think the Huskers will take a step back at quarterback and offensively. Ganz was so good when it was 3rd and long, so I see a lot more punts in those situations.
If Roy Helu can be a workhorse, the Husker run game should thrive. But we saw how much he got worn down in one game (vs. CU) when they tried to run him. I hold my breath every time Castille plays because of ball security. They need another viable back or two that can eat carries to keep Helu fresh for when he's really needed.
The O-line could be better next year with Ricky Henry in the mix and more development from the younger guys. But I've sort of given up hope of the Huskers ever being a dominant run between the tackles kind of team in this offense. It's just not what it's built for.
On defense, it's all about Suh. The Huskers will be much better with him than without. I expect the back 7 to be better but that won't be apparent if the front four drops off.