Big 12 Championship Oklahoma's to Lose
16 comments so far
December 5, 2008 by
If you're like the Missouri fans on Kansas City Sports Radio this week, you may trying to forget the fact that the Tigers are matching up with the Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas City's Arrowhead Stadium for the Big 12 Championship Title Game on Saturday. Every call from fans I've heard on the radio has been one of disappointment in last week's lose to Kansas and this season in general. It's like the wind has just been knocked out of the sails of the Missouri “faithful�. After National Championship expectations, their loftiest goal for this season now is to attempt to prevent a team from playing for a National Title in this rematch of the 2007 Title Game. They have a right to want to ignore this upcoming game. It doesn't look hopeful.
While the favored team going into the Big 12 Title Game is the winner about 75% of the time, Oklahoma is 5-1 in Big 12 Championship attempts, and they've been favored to win every time. This is the third straight year that the Sooners have been in this spot and they look poised to win this one too. OU has won in 18 of the last 19 meetings with MU. They defeated them twice last year when the Tigers were the media darlings and ranked number 1 going into the 2007 Championship Game. But history isn't always the best judge of who is going to win a game, so we'll look at what each team has done this year.
Oklahoma is led by exceptional red shirt sophomore quarterback Sam Bradford. They have the number one scoring offense in the country with a 53 points/game average. Their 556 yards/game is enough for third best in the NCAA and first in the Big 12. Playing against the offensive powerhouses that dominate the Big 12 has pushed their defense down to 66th in the NCAA, but is good enough for second in the Big 12.
There is little doubt that Oklahoma is the best team in the Big 12 by leading in the following categories: Pass Efficiency Defense (54%), Fumbles Lost (2), Kickoff Returns (25 yards/ret), Passing Efficiency (184 rating), Scoring Offense (53 points/game), Total Offense (556 yards/game), Turnovers Gained (29), Turnovers Lost (9), and Tackles for Loss (7.9 TFL/game). They are ranked number 2 in seven categories and are only ranked in the bottom half of the league in 2 or 3 stats.
OK, so I don't think that the Tigers have the greatest shot to win this game, but OU has been shocked badly before. Everyone should remember the Kansas State Wildcats in 2003 when they held the nation's highest scoring team to 7 in the Big 12 Title Game. Oh yeah, that was OU's one Big 12 Title Game loss. Missouri needs to channel every upset hopeful's emotion into this game. They have one of the best weapons in the country in Maclin, with the ability to bust a game wide open with a punt return. And Chase Daniel is still one of the most effective and dangerous quarterbacks in the country.
Where this game might be determined is in the mistakes. Oklahoma is penalized almost 8 times per game while the Tigers see less than 4. If a big play is called back, we could see the beginning of a momentum shift. Missouri has to stop the Sooners about 5 times in the whole game to have a chance to win it. Two forced punts, two turnovers, and one end of half or end of game.
It should be a high scoring affair unless the heart of the Tigers is just not in it. Even if Missouri plays their best game of the year, Oklahoma will probably still come out on top. Boomer Sooner 50-40.
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James Moore Dec 05 08
It most certainly is. Honestly until someone does to Oklahoma what Colorado did in Boulder against us in 2001, very few teams, if any in the conference will go into a matchup with Oklahoma truly believing that they can win. Their offense is one of the very best units I have ever seen, and in my opinion the future of offensive football, perhaps even for the NFL down the road as well. From a standpoint of overall production, execution, balance, athletic talent, and big-play potential they are the best unit I have seen since 95 Nebraska. . .
As for Missouri or any other spread team it does have one shortcoming. IF the other team you matchup with can run with and tackle in space, then it comes down to assignments up front. Prior to thier arrival in Norman Texas Tech had given up just 5 sacks in 499 pass attempts. You saw what happened. Oklahoma got to Harrell. I find it rather hard to believe that Missouri's offensive line will be able to hold off the Sooner front four. Throw in the massive chunks of yardage that the Tiger defense has been giving up all year and it becomes difficult to imagine a credible scenario where Missouri will be able to hold off Oklahoma for an extended period of time. If you can't slow down Murray and Brown, then you have NO chance of getting to Bradford. If you can't get to Bradford, then forget it. Finally since the 2003 game against Kansas State, when was the last time that Oklahoma did not show up to play in a big conference game?
Pay attention to the Cincinnati/Hawaii matchup. A Sooner win could end up being for naught. A Bearcat loss COULD drop Oklahoma's strength of schedule to the point that they MIGHT not make the National Championship game, even with a win in the conference championship game. . .
OU7times Dec 05 08
I have to say that I had not taken the Cinn/Hawaii game into account. It does make sense that a Cinn loss could drop OU's strength of schedule but I'm thinking not by much at this point.
Without a hand injury to Bradford, I would call this game something like 69-27. With the hand injury and maybe being an uncomfortable annoyance...probably 55-27. I'm hoping anyway.
If at any time during OU's last 2 games, the second string QB (Halzle)comes in. We are toast cause you can see the fear in his eyes in MOP UP situations. I am truly scared that Bradford WILL get blindsided and get F'd the hell up.
This is Mizzou's only real chance and there is a lot of hate out there.
Denly Dec 05 08
I HATE Missouri
Dwayne Dec 05 08
This is Missouri's opportunity wih NU being down the past several years. If they don't capture it here, it could be decades before they see another opportunity because NU is on the rise, but I have to agree, it is OU's to lose. Bradford is like 46 TD-6 Int ratio. That is freakish.
OU7times Dec 06 08
TURNER GILL'S BUFFALOES WIN THE MAC CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!!!!!
Dwayne Dec 06 08
OU7,
That was awesome. Classic site after the game and a very humble man. He deserves everything he gets and deserves a better op than Syracuse ever is. He reminds me so much of Osborne with a bit more of his emotions on his sleeve. Some day I would love to see him return to NU as head coach. He is a class guy since the day he stepped on campus as a student-athlete and it makes me proud as a fan to say he is tied to Nebraska. And by the way, Buffalo has a really, really good RB.
tom Dec 06 08
That was a seriously awesome win for Gill's Bulls. They had lost their last eight against ranked opponents. They took advantage of EVERY opportunity scoring off each turnover. Good for him and their team.
James Moore Dec 07 08
Dwayne, Tom & OU7,
OU7 congratulations. Guys can you come up with a reason why teams like Tennessee, Notre Dame, Auburn (we'll see what they do), Washington, Texas A&M DON'T go after someone who arrived with nothing and turned it into something credible? Turner Gill, Brian Kelly, Greg Schiano are TREMENDOUS football coaches. If you can turn Buffalo into a conference champion, imagine what you can do with a name brand, bigger budget & facilities, you can turn a BCS-school into a powerhouse. . .
Maybe, maybe we could name Turner Gill our next head-coach-in-waiting, or whatever you call this new position that Will Muschamp and Jimbo Fisher have obtained. . .
OU7times Dec 07 08
Thanks James,
I think that a lot of teams eel they have to have someone who is an established "big name" and are either too impatient or just not willing to take the chance with someone like Turner Gill who is someone (correct me if I'm wrong) with only recent success.
I feel I've made my fondness for Coach Gill more than clear and just think he is a tremendous human being with the old Nebraska ties which I feel is very important.
Coach Pelini has done a fine job as a first year coach but maybe some day Coach Gill will come back home and be Head Coach at NU because I just can't imagine Syracuse as a job that's considered a last stop for anyone from these parts and loves midwest football
bnahusker Dec 07 08
The way Auburn treated Tubberville, I wouldn't think about taking the job. Turner can do better work staying Buffalo. It isn't about the money or glory for him. Don't be surprised if he stays put for a very long time.
GO BULLS!
Go Big Red!
Bob
bnahusker Dec 07 08
Just a thought...............
If 'Head to Head' should be THE determining factor on who goes ahead of another team with an identical record, are the Longhorns going to pass on the Fiesta Bowl because they lost to Texas Tech? Come on Coach Mack, back up your words with action, and go to the Holiday Bowl!
GBR!
Bob
Dwayne Dec 07 08
I just think Gill is better than that. Syracuse for that matter. I've always thought that about him. The other thing is when I say that I hope some day he returns as head man at NU, is I've always felt if Pelini has success I see him returning home to his Ohio State after Tressel. It's just something I guess I've always felt and before Bo's hire, I thought Turner was the long-term choice. Who knows? I also feel good about what Bo is doing and I really like the direction of the program, and I think I said either Bo or Turner couldn't have been a bad pick. And Steve could probably comment better on this but I've heard Schiano is the pick for Penn State after Joe pa pa leaves. Probably in 20 years. OU7, are you thinking about changing your alias to OU8times?
OU7times Dec 07 08
Now, wouldn't that be nice!
I heard some really cool news this evening and that is that Coach Gill is interviewing for the AUBURN job or at least AUBURN has interest in TALKING to TG. I would love that to happen.
I have to admit that I always think of the "bounce pass" from Turner Gill back in the early eighties. Definitely highlight material.
Is the Gator Bowl matchp official?
Kelly
JBLING22 Dec 07 08
Yes the Gator Bowl is official in terms of Big Twelve Conference... It technically was decided on Monday of last week, as Nebraska was given its half of the alloted tickets to the game.. Hope to see large numbers of Husker fans down in Jacksonville, cause we Clemson will bring a strong following...
Hopefully I'll see ya all there, my tickets have been bought and the hotel is booked....
OU7times Dec 07 08
Should I forget,
(3 weeks from now), have a good time and drink some brewski's for me.
Dwayne Dec 07 08
Now this is really interesting... in looking at the bowl schedule, why the heck would the liberty, international, and gmac bowls be after January 1? That really is almost un-American. I really don't want to see any of those games after the first of the year. This is what is so wrong with these stupid bowl games. They used to be played on January 1 and now they're all strung out for a whole week after. I almost miss the way it used to be. Anyone know who'd be calling the play by play for the Gator on CBS?