Jayhawks Not as Unbeatable as You Might Think
5 comments so far
November 4, 2008 by
Given the beatdown the Huskers took in Norman and the easy confidence-building contest Kansas had against Kansas State, you might decide that the Jayhawks would blow Nebraska off the field this week. KU’s blowout victory in Lawrence a year ago could also lead you to a similar conclusion. But things may not be as hopeless as some NU fans might believe.
Jayhawks are not road warriors
Kansas has played three road games this year. The results were a three-point loss to a now-unrated South Florida team, a two-point escape over Iowa State, and a two-touchdown defeat at the hands of the Sooners. This isn’t the first season where the road has been unkind to KU. The Jayhawks only loss a year ago was at a neutral site, in 2006 they went 1-4 on the road (5-2 at home), and in 2005 they went 0-4 on the road (7-1 at home). Need I mention that they haven’t won in Lincoln since Lyndon Johnson was president. The same could be said of Joe Ganz. With Ganz at the helm, NU is 5-2 at home and 1-4 on the road.
KU isn’t the team they were a year ago
The Jayhawks are 6-3. They were 9-0 after nine games a year ago. In addition to the three aforementioned bad road games, they also lost a wicked game at home to Texas Tech by a margin of 63-21. That’s the same Red Raider team Nebraska took to overtime. Clearly, this team is a lot more beatable than the one that trounced NU in Lawrence.
The Huskers fared better against common opponents
Against Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech, the Huskers scored 94 points and allowed 106. Against those same three teams, KU scored 87 and allowed 141, despite getting Texas Tech at home (all three contests were road games for NU).
The computers prefer Nebraska
Given those three facts (and perhaps NU’s tougher schedule to date), Sagarin’s predictor rating likes Nebraska by four points in Lincoln. When you take into account only your wins and losses, your opponents’ wins and losses, and your opponents’ opponents wins and losses, final scores, and where games are played, Nebraska looks a bit better on paper. That’s not opinion, that’s objective fact.
NU’s wounds this season are largely self-inflicted
If you’d told me that the Huskers would rack up over 400 yards against Oklahoma, including more than 200 yards rushing, win the time of possession battle, and put together four drives of 80 yards or more, I’d think that they’d either won the game or came real close. The Huskers did all of those things in Norman on Saturday. If you told me the Huskers would commit four turnovers (and force only one), would commit 8 penalties for 74 yards, and would net only 27 yards per kickoff, I’d guess the Huskers lost badly. Sadly, all of those things happened as well. If NU can avoid the turnovers and penalties, and do a better job on kickoffs, they will be a much better team than we saw against OU.
KU is a scary team to face in the wake of the loss to Oklahoma. But they’re not Oklahoma. They can be beaten. The Huskers just need to believe it.
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tom Nov 04 08
This game is starting to look real important to determine what Husker progress looks like. We've beaten the teams we're supposed to, and we've lost to teams we're supposed to, but this is the first team we play that there really is no "supposed to". If we win this game, we really are looking at the possibility of ending the regular season with a 3 game win streak. Nothing, to me, seems better than that right now.
Ryan Nov 04 08
Good points on the Oklahoma game. I can't help but say that you take away the turnovers and the final score is closer to 42-21. You can say that our last touchdown was against a gravy defense, but from what I saw they had most of their starting d in through the 3rd and part of the 4th quarter and if they are so loaded with talent then Roy Helu and the offense was still supposedly playing against better players right? Kind of hard to win a game when you put yourself in a 21 point hole like we did.
omarhuskerfan Nov 04 08
Ryan,
While I like what you are thinking about the score and the starting defense and all...I think that you are a little off base in thinking that because in the 3rd and begining of the 4th the starting D was in so we should measure off of that performance. I they are in and up a billion points I don't see them giving 100%.
With that said I certainly hope we make a game of KU.
James Moore Nov 04 08
Tom, I agree with your comment with Kansas as a strategic indicator for meauring progress, and as an accurate assessment of where we are in conference this year. Truthfully, with a win here, and a good close to the season, we will be able to say, with a good bit of credibility that we (for the moment) trail only Missouri in the North. . .
In moving on, things change week-to-week and this game is vastly different than playing Oklahoma or Missouri. The very real threat of the explosive play is simply not present with the Jayhawks. Oklahoma relied on power, balance, execution, and speed. Kansas relies on balance and execution, not overwhelming athleticism. Our guys will have to focus on assignments, position, and tackling well in space. Do these things and we will match up well with these guys when the defense is out there. Suh is playing well, and I expect that the D-Line to make a good showing of itself this week. They should be able to beat the Kansas O-Line without sending pressure. We can, and we MUST take Sharp out of the game as a credible option. Once THIS bunch gets one-dimentional THEN we will be able to get to Reesing, and rather frequently too. What I want to see is the secondary getting off Kansas blocks QUICKLY. Last year in Lawrence we looked like we were dancing with those guys on outside run plays. Kansas does a very good job with their perimeter blocking and this will be a critical element for us to manage. It all comes down to taking Sharp out early, no mental breakdowns, tackling in space, and quickly getting off perimeter blocks. . .
Offensively, I really hope to see Helu get some touches early. He is the first real playmaker of the Pelini-era. This week I really like his one-on-one matchups with the Jayhawk LB's. I really like our wideouts this week too. No Talib is huge. This year we can throw all over the field, knowing that one side of it is no longer locked down with a very, very good CB. We own a nice advantage in this department. Penalties, missed assignments, and turnovers will be our only impediments. Avoid them, and we win this game, and most importantly go into the final stretch with some very favorable games for us left. . .
Bill in Iowa Nov 04 08
The first step for the Huskers is to play with perfection. Ball security, penalties, blown assignments...these things are killing us.
I think our strengths in the D-line and O-line will shine against KU. As always I worry about our secondary. We have to get to the QB and keep the pressure on or he will cut us up. On offense, we have to play our game of keep away, sustain drives, maintain a balance run and pass attack.
I look for us to have a good game after the OU debacle. We need this one badly! It would be a great boost to morale, give us a real good shot at 8-5, and a better bowl game.