Huskers Can Win Most Games With These Numbers
5 comments so far
September 16, 2008 by
In addition to being a record-breaking night for many Huskers, the numbers put up by our offense and defense would win almost every game. Comparing first downs, rushing yards, turnovers, and sacks almost always indicate the winner. At the end of the year, those are the primary numbers that I use to predict bowl game winners. The numbers don't lie, but I add in points/game scored and allowed at the end of they year because that's the only stat that will always indicate who won the game, and 38-7 sure looked nice on Saturday.
Numbers may not lie, but they can be misleading. Last week, the San Jose State game was actually much closer than the 35-12 score let on. This week, the score was nowhere near as close as it seemed. Nebraska left 10 potential points on the field in the first half with a missed field goal and a turnover on downs in the red zone. And the score by NMSU? A junk fumble by a backup quarterback getting some reps. I'll gladly take our young guys and backups making those mistakes now and get that experience in. Let's hope we get to see them play in a few more games this year (but not because of injury).
The first downs comparison is really no comparison. Huskers win that battle by 28-19. Nebraska had little trouble moving the ball and the Aggies had more than a little trouble. If our 330 yards rushing was any indication, we really controlled the tempo of this football game from the start. Marlon Lucky finally started to show up with 103 rushing (124 all purpose). If Lucky can continue to get 100 all purpose yards per game, he's going to pass Johnny Rodgers, Mike Rozier, and Ahman Green to take the all time number one spot.
Quentin Castille looked like the powerful runner he should be, averaging 7.5 yards/carry. Even Joe Ganz got in the mix with 69 yards of scampering. For once, Roy Helu, Jr. didn't break one out, which really surprised me. But I'm glad of the team effort of guys stepping up when others are slumping a little bit.
The simple fact that we got two interceptions to stop their drives combined with the 3 sacks made it pretty clear we were getting the pressure up front. I've spent a lot of time talking about the offense, but the defense was the reason the game just looked great from start to finish. Our scheme of letting the front four push and dropping guys underneath seemed to confuse and “trick� Chase Holbrook. He got some numbers tonight, but not where it really counted.
Bo Pelini's bend, don't break philosophy on defense may be what we need to get more than just a winning record this year. We're still a ways off from being a complete team, but don't be shocked to see us upset a team coming into our home turf looking past us.
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Greg Morrow Sep 16 08
No doubting things look on schedule, cruising into the bye week. Nebraska didn't have a bye last year, until the weekend before Buffy. By that time, the clock was definitely ticking.
Just the bye alone is a big plus. I'd like to embrace the statistical comparisions, but like I mentioned on Steve's post, Nebraska's "Blackshirts" could improve each week and still get worked, by the you know who's. It's possible none of the three teams Nebraska's played, will go bowling. When you consider that half of the Bowl Subdivision or whatever, will go to somebodies luau... I like the obvious fact that the defense is so much better. So much better. Statistically though, it's ranked 65th, against these 3 teams. Sure, there was some inflated garbage time, but you could say that about a lot of teams stats. Turnovers are way up, which is great.
I guess I don't feel overly optimistic in this late hour, right before bedtime. The cream puff part of the schedule is long gone, except for I suppose, Baylor and the Cyclones. That's 7 other teams with either equal or better talent, with more experience in their schemes.
Maybe I just care about the players too much, as I get older. (Don't want to see 'em get hurt, or humiliated.) False hopes don't bother me, so much. I'll think more about this, tomorrow.
OU7times Sep 17 08
Basing any statistics on the first three opponents is really misleading. We're talking about Nebraska here. W. Michigan, San Jose St. and NM State?? Why would people even waste a minute trying to figure how good you are at this point of the season with these statistics. It's the same story for my team.
These 3 games are the whole reason for non-conference play. To PAD the stats. I wouldn't consider Baylor or I- state creampuffs, this year, as far as Nebraska is concerned. Believe it or not, both will give NU all they want. Things are a little better down in Waco. No doubt, NU is a better team this year but many challenges are only a week away. Playing away from Lincoln will be a great test for NU.
OU7times Sep 17 08
Tom, I apologize, I just re-read my comments. They really didn't come out how I meant them and seemed very sharp. NOT THE WAY I MEANT!! I was distracted and should not have posted until I looked it over. I will not do that again.
I was just trying to be objective and trying to relay that I don't take my teams stats at this point very seriously, based on the cupcakes they have played (3 games in). Just an opinion, that's all.
No harm meant and hope you wont take it that way.
tom Sep 17 08
I actually agree with your first post, though. I realize no harshness was intended. Ranking the teams from best to worst of the first three based on previous years I would say Western Mich. then San Jose State, then NMSU. The Broncos probably will be the only ones of those three with a winning record. But at this time last year, we already knew we had some major problems on our hands. We barely beat Wake, USC made us look as bad as we turned out to be and then just 51 weeks ago, Ball State almost pulled an Appalachian State. I'm just glad we put up huge numbers against these teams, got turnovers, and generally looked good enough to scare some people when conference play starts.
Isaac Sep 21 08
Just a couple thoughts to add. San Jose State may have been better overall in the end last year, but NMSU really racks up the yards on offense.
While it is somewhat pointless to evaluate the Huskers against these three weaker teams, I think they're a decent evaluation of our defense. Sure, Missouri might still score 50 on us, but last year's defense would have given up 30 non-garbage-time-points to at least one, if not two of those 3 teams.
Oh, and Ball State has a really good offense too (not Missouri-esque or anything). Check out what Donte Love has done this year.
So, overall an encouraging start and we'll really find out about the Huskers starting this week.