The System Makes the Man

1 comment so far August 20, 2008 by Tom Cudd

Finding a great running back to supplement a squad is critical to winning games. Next to quarterbacks, a good RB is the most important tool in a coach's arsenal. Looking at Scout.com and Rivals.com rankings for the past four years, there are some highly ranked players near the top of the running statistical categories, but not as many as you think. Looking at who's in the recruit rankings, you would think a coach is likely better off doing their own analysis of who will fit in their system instead of relying on recruiting services. Looking at the top stats, you may start to think that they already are.

First of all, let's look at some of the top prospects from 2004-2007. Click Here to view the table that I have created (you may have to hit your up and down arrow keys to scroll on the list). It lists the top 10 running back recruits from Scout.com and Rivals.com along with their ranking according to the NCAA Yards/Game Statistic. There are only 12 out of 40 in Scout.com's list and only 7 out of 40 on Rivals.com who had a Yards/Game average in the top 100. There are a couple of players who went to the NFL, but I figure if a player isn't playing for your team when they could be, what good are they?

If we compare the top players in the Yards/Game stats and sort them by class, we start to see that younger good players are going to lead their class in rushing areas. Check out this chart and you can see that there is an exceptional crop of running backs every few years. The Juniors were amazing this year, but it means that they've had an opportunity to develop into the system they are playing in. Out of the rest of all the classes, there are only 2 5-star recruits in the top 5 or 6 players in those classes. That adds up to less than 35% of all the top players who are 4-5 star recruits.

When we look at Touchdowns, the number jumps up to around half of the players being 4 or 5 star guys. This chart shows that some of the top recruits have a nose for the end zone, but have to compete with guys who weren't even ranking in their position when they were recruited.

The number one lesson that can be learned from this stats dumpster diving is that a coach needs to be able to evaluate his own talent based on the system that he has laid out. A great player will still manage to get the numbers that they need no matter where they play, but a good player can compete with highly ranked prospects if he works hard and has a good cast of characters around him. I believe that Bo Pelini is they type of guy who can find a needle in a haystack of recruits. I hope he can still get some of those top ranked players, but know that some 2-3 star guy you picked up may work hard enough to be your best player in three years.

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