Running Nebraska Through the Eliminator
12 comments so far
August 19, 2008 by
I understand why Georgia is the consensus #1 team in the country. That doesn't mean I believe it to be true and it doesn’t seem like anyone else does either. Returning talent and strong finish aside, nobody seems to think that Georgia can make it through their schedule unscathed but, because college football hates logic the way ‘Bammers hate Aubies, the Dawgs are voted the top team in the country even though everyone can agree that they won’t end up there.
Or maybe they will. I wasn’t expecting much out of ESPN The Magazine’s college football preview, but as it turns out I learned something before I even opened it up. On the overleaf to their Knowshon Moreno cover they diagrammed out “The Eliminator,� a set of statistical milestones every BCS champion has met since 2003. They are as follows:
1) Had at least one receiver average at least 15 yards per catch (min. 30 receptions).
2) Recorded 33 or more sacks.
3) Passed for more than 3000 yards.
4) Allowed less than 20 points per game.
Of ESPN’s Top 10 preseason teams, only one team is projected to meet every milestone and that team is, in fact, Georgia. Three teams are expected to fall short in only one category, USC and Oklahoma are projected to miss the PPG number and Ohio State the passing number. Missouri isn’t projected to make either defensive milestone.
So how close, or far, away is Nebraska from these milestones? Like everything else this offseason it all depends on how strongly you view last season’s defensive performance to be an anomaly.
1) Will Nebraska have a receiver average 15 yards per catch?
Believe it or not, Maurice Purify didn’t take the highest per catch average with him when he graduated. No, you’re 2007 leader there was rumored possession receiver Nate Swift. He averaged 14.44 ypc on 36 receptions. His number of touches will almost certainly go up this year as WR1 but will he or anyone else make the milestone? Seems about like an even money proposition to me. Swift was close last year, he was close as a freshman (14.24/45) and in the year between Purify surpassed it, averaging over 18 ypc.
2) Will the Blackshirts record 33+ sacks?
Doesn’t look likely. The Cornhuskers have recorded more than 33 sacks twice this decade, 2001 and 2005. They sure as hell didn’t make it last year with a scant 13, the worst total in the history of football (not true, but if felt that way). In Pelini’s year at Nebraska he came close at 27, and he made it each of the past three years at LSU, but with Nebraska’s defensive line being racked by high blood pressure, suspensions and youth and a linebacking corps that avoids the blood pressure issues and suspensions but is even less experienced, it’s hard to see where 33 sacks are going to come from. Essentially the question is this: Can the Pelini’s and the fiery young newcomers on the staff will this unit to 30 sacks? That’s hard to predict but not 100% unfathomable.
3) Will Joe Ganz, et al. pass for more than 3000 yards?
You might assume that Nebraska made this number in all but the first year of the Callahan era. I did, but it’s not true. Zac Taylor didn’t pass for 3000 yards in his first year behind center, but he did in 2006 and Keller/Ganz blew by 3K with 3886 yards total in 2007. Even with the renewed focus on rock pounding, this is the surest bet of the four.
4) Will the Blackshirts allow less than 20ppg?
Well, no indifferent media member is going to assume so because that would mean Nebraska would have to nearly half their average of 37.9 last year but we’re not indifferent media members. Like Springsteen sang, on Nebraska of course, at the end of every hard earned day people find some reason to believe. Cornhusker fans don’t have to look too hard for that reason: traditionally, Pelini has met that milestone. The 14.5 average points his 2003 defense allowed was Nebraska’s best total of the decade and since becoming a coordinator at the college level he’s yet to exceed 20 in any season. But this is the Big 12 and, despite what Dan Hawkins might say, it could look a lot like intramural flag football with all the passing and scoring going on. History is on Pelini’s side but the present is not. All he has to do to keep the low scoring precedent he’s set somehow manage to keep teams in the most prolific offensive conference in the country to three scores or less with his least experienced unit to date. We’ll call it a longshot.
So has The Eliminator eliminated Nebraska for the national title running? Not entirely. In fact, I would think that this gives those Nebraska fans who are predicting great things out of the gate (9 wins, Big 12 North title, etc.) a leg to stand on.
You could say with a certain amount of confidence that Nebraska is halfway there as both offensive milestones appear within reach, but again the questions come from the defensive side of the ball. Historically, Pelini has been the sort of coordinator to meet the defensive milestones of post-2003 champions.
Will he be the sort of coach that can do it as well? We’re 11 days away from beginning to find out but if the Eliminator has proven anything already it’s this: You can’t say Nebraska didn’t address their needs.
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darren Aug 19 08
Thanks for running NU under that good ESPN-created microscope, Brandon. That stat about 33 sacks is the most telling, I think. Great defense still boils down to getting pressure on the QB, "spread" offenses or not.
There is pretty massive *potential* in this team, but potential never bought the groceries. :-)
You are spot on that this analysis does not rule out winning the North, which is (and always will be) my first priority for any NU team. And, it really just boils down to giving up 14-17 fewer points per game, as I've said before. No small task. But, that's what is required.
Gawd, can the season get here soon enough??
James Moore Aug 19 08
1) Will Nebraska have a receiver average 15
yards per catch?
If Peterson and Swift can consistently separate and the running game/O-Line is what it should then yes, this one is well attainable. The emergence of Holt, Paul, Brooks (we could use you big fella!) would make this an INCREDIBLY dangerous offense. The emergence of McNeil would complete this offensive unit giving it options galore. Can you imagine this bunch on playaction?
2) Will the Blackshirts record 33+ sacks?
Probably not. The points mentioned above put it very well. I'm sure I can speak for all in Husker Nation and say that we expect intensity, better pursuit to the ball, sound tackling & good assignment football. If I get THAT week in and week out then I am well happy for now. . .
3) Will Joe Ganz, et al. pass for more
than 3000 yards?
Everything is there for this to happen. If he doesn't it'll be because the running game became so prominent that he doesn't get the attempts. He is capable of this number and I do expect him to do so. . .
4) Will the Blackshirts allow less than 20ppg?
Probably not, but they'll be very close to this number. If they go from 37.9 ppg to 20-23 then I will be very, very happy. But I'll go on the record and say that they will be closer than many of us think to this number. Just on intensity and pursuit alone they can knock 7-10 pts of that number. Throw in scheme and some players growing into their new roles and you can take another 5-6 off. . .
As good as Lucky is and Helu is becoming, the slimmer, more explosive Castille is freaggin awesome to watch. He'll also make out playaction potential that much more explosive. . .
11 Days!!! Wow, we're practically here now. I feel like a little kid 11 days before Christmas!!!
GO BIG RED!!!
Brandon Aug 19 08
Wanted to mention this in the article but couldn't quite find the room, but it's pretty interesting that of the four traits o' recent champions, the two offensive ones are both passing related.
You'd be hard pressed to find a coach in the country who wouldn't tell you the importance of running the football, but, at least since '03, champions have been defined on the offensive side of the ball by a big play receiver and a competent QB.
Is this a recent development? Would "The Eliminator" from 99-03 or 94-98 have looked markedly different?
bnahusker Aug 19 08
Brandon...........
Great post. Putting the numbers in perspective is a great eye opener. Thanks for sharing.
James.............
This is MUCH worst than being a kid before Christmas. There is no way to get a peek at the unwrapped gifts (or to "peek" into the wraped ones) until kickoff.
Tick
Tock
Tick
Tock
Tick
GBR!
Bob
Iggy Aug 19 08
Okay, as much as I agree with ESPN and with Brandon on his analysis I will add one caveat.
Backside BLocking on Offense & Backside pursuit on Defense. If you look at Husker teams under TO & Solich even one thing that came out was the amount of Backside blocking on running plays and the amount of Backside pursuit from the Blackshirts. Wistrom and Demario williams boht made careers on back side pursuit to the ball. And of course on offense our wide-outs took secodaries out of the play and the O-line frequently got to the second level to take LBs out of the play as well. You don't break seventy yard touchdown runs without that kind of support. In 2007 if you go back an watch they games, even the KSU game there was NO BACKSIDE Pursuit to the ball and NOBODY kept the play in front of them! You always saw guys in space one on one. KSU was probably the most consistent Defenseive performance of the year for the Huskers in Conference play and they still couldn't get to the ball carrier from the backside with any consistency. If Freeman wasn't such a mediocre QB we most likely would have lost that game (I mean the guy actually turned his back to the line of scrimmage on a busted play at one point trying to elude the rush!)
On Offense things were better but when other teams knew what we were going to do, or when we got behind and we're forced to throw it, the offense went in the tank as well. Our blocking was marginal at best and very rarely on running plays did you see linemen making it to the second level.
If Pelini and company can emphasize this technique and keep the guys hopped up emotionally then will be fine this year. Personally
I'll settle for 8-4 or 9-3 but I think its possible to go 10-2 or 11-1 and I think every game is winnable. I'll give OU and TT as a loss but every other tough game is in Lincoln and there is no excuse for losing in Lincoln ever (especially to teams that haven't won there since the seventies)
carlinthemarlin Aug 19 08
It's not really a surprise that they're passing related. I mean, you could easily find the common statistic for running the ball but it would probably be much lower, meaning that while, say, USC in 05 ran the ball well enough, Florida in 06 did not. Which means of course that there are really a lot of different ways to win a championship, and that's not the story ESPN wants to sell. They want things packaged easily. Of course, all of those numbers would probably change if you brought the time frame one year forward or pushed it one year back, and it will probably change after next year.
Nothing against this article, by the way, I did find it interesting.
Bill in Iowa Aug 19 08
33 plus sacks is a tall order...about 3 sacks a game, yet I am going to go out on a limb and say this defense can do it. For some reason, people are running with a logic that since we didn't rush the passer last year, then we won't be able to this year. I think Bo is going to find his pass rushers who will fit into his scheme. And remember in his scheme, the pass rush can come from anywhere, linebackers, corners, rush ends. I thought it might be fun to see where the pass rush came from in 2003 comparing the DL and LB's. Here are the results: (it's also interesting to see what Bo had to work with in 2003 so I have included the roster for the DL and LB positions):
Defensive end Trevor Johnson led NU's defensive linemen in tackles (68) and tackles for loss (9) as one of four team captains in 2003.
Benard Thomas earned a starting defensive end spot during spring practice and played in all 13 games with 10 starts. He finished the season with 42 tackles, including 18 solo stops. He had five tackles for loss, including two for 17 yards against Texas A&M, when he recorded a seven-yard sack
Titus Adams played in all 13 games as a second-team defensive end, while moving inside to tackle in passing situations. He finished the year with 27 tackles, including 11 unassisted stops, led by a season-high five tackles at Texas.
Stewart Bradley as a redshirt freshman played in all 13 games as a backup defensive end and saw special teams action, finishing the year with six tackles. In limited time at defensive end Bradley accounted for three tackles for loss and four quarterback hurries.
Adam Carriker (Redshirt Freshman) opened the 2003 season playing extensively in passing situations before injuring his ankle against Utah State in game two. He missed the next three games, before returning to action at Missouri. Carriker registered two tackles against Iowa State, then broke out against Colorado. He had three quarterback hurries against the Buffs and ended a CU drive in the third quarter with a nine-yard sack of quarterback Joel Klatt. He finished the year with three tackles and three quarterback hurries.
Seppo Evwaraye played in five games as a reserve defensive tackle and made an unassisted tackle against Troy State.
Patrick Kabongo was a part-time starter in his final two seasons on the Nebraska defensive line and served as Ryon Bingham's top backup at nose tackle in 2003. In his career, Kabongo played 42 games with nine starts and recorded 110 total tackles, including 14 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks.
LeKevin Smith finished the 2003 season with 44 tackles, including 20 solo stops and had six tackles for loss. He started 12 games and sat out the Utah State contest with an injury. The Husker defense ranked in the top 15 nationally in four major defensive categories and was second nationally in takeaways. He also had four quarterback hurries, two pass breakups and a fumble recovery.
Brandon Teamer was the only defensive player among six Husker true freshmen who saw action in 2003. He played in every game except Kansas, and finished with 13 tackles, including eight solo stops. He had a season-high three tackles at Texas, all unassisted. He closed the regular season with two tackles each against Kansas State and Colorado, and had three quarterback hurries on the season, including one that caused an interception against Iowa State.
Nose tackle Ryon Bingham was a mainstay on the Husker defensive line for three seasons. The Sandy, Utah, native led Nebraska's interior defensive linemen with 56 total tackles, capped by the best stretch of his career over the season's final seven games when he tallied 45 tackles.For his standout play, Bingham earned second-team All-Big 12 honors from the conference coaches, while the Blackshirt defense ranked among the Big 12 and national leaders in several statistical categories. Bingham was also chosen in the seventh round (204th overall selection) of the 2004 NFL Draft by the San Diego Chargers.
Adams, Titus DE 6-3 275 So. Omaha, Neb. (Creighton Prep)
Bradley, Stewart DE 6-4 245 RFr. Salt Lake City, Utah (Highland)
Carriker, Adam DE 6-6 260 RFr. Kennewick, Wash. (Kennewick)
Johnson, Trevor DE 6-4 250 Sr. Lincoln, Neb. (Northeast)
Luhrs, Kevin DE 6-1 230 Fr. Omaha, Neb. (Creighton Prep)
McBride, Jeff DE 6-4 240 Jr. Brule, Neb. (South Platte)
Moore, Jay DE 6-4 255 RFr. Elkhorn, Neb. (Elkhorn)
Muhammad, Wali DE 6-1 240 So. Bloomfield, N.J. (Coffeyville CC) (Bloomfield)
Neemann, Trevor DE 6-2 235 Fr. Lincoln, Neb. (Southeast)
Patrick, Chris DE 6-5 245 Fr. Ithaca, Mich. (Ithaca)
Poulosky, Andy DE 6-2 230 Fr. Ponca, Neb. (Ponca)
Rice, Thomas DE 6-1 230 Fr. Lincoln, Neb. (East)
Thomas, Benard DE 6-4 255 Jr. East Palo Alto, Calif. (St. Francis)
Toline, Tyler DE 6-2 235 Jr. Wahoo, Neb.
Bryant, Chris DT 6-3 280 RFr. Aurora, Colo. (Smoky Hill)
Evwaraye, Seppo DT 6-5 310 So. Laurel, Neb. (Laurel-Concord)
Kabongo, Patrick DT 6-6 315 Sr. Montreal, Quebec, Canada (Vanier Collegiate Prep)
Krug, Nathan DT 6-4 255 So. Chapman, Neb. (Nebraska Christian)
Shrader, Matt DT 6-1 245 Jr. Ravenna, Neb. (Ravenna)
Smith, Le Kevin DT 6-2 305 So. Macon, Ga. (Stratford Academy)
Teamer, Brandon DT 6-5 270 Fr. Omaha, Neb. (Central)
Bingham, Ryon NT 6-3 295 Sr. Sandy, Utah (Alta)
Fisher, Anthony NT 6-1 235 RFr. Arapahoe, Neb. (Arapahoe)
Greeson, Brandon NT 6-3 295 RFr. High Point, N.C. (Central)
Helming, Jared NT 6-3 290 So. Springfield, Mo. (Kickapoo)
Lohr, Jason NT 6-2 275 Sr. Tulsa, Okla. (Jenks)
O'Shea, Matt NT 6-0 270 So. Irving, Texas (Jesuit College Prep
T.J. Hollowell capped a solid Nebraska career by earning honorable-mention All-Big 12 honors as a senior. Hollowell started all 13 games at Buck linebacker and finished third on the team in tackles with 80 stops, trailing only fellow linebackers Barrett Ruud and Demorrio Williams in 2003. Hollowell added eight tackles for loss (38 yards), including 1.5 sacks (13 yards), along with seven quarterback hurries, a fumble caused and a pair of interceptions. He also ranked second on the team and tied the NU linebacker record with eight pass breakups.
Ruud started all 13 games at middle linebacker as a junior and made a school-record 149 tackles, including 78 unassisted stops. He recorded double figures in tackles nine times, including seven of the season's final eight games. Ruud recorded 14 or more tackles in each of the final four regular-season contests, including a career-high 17 stops at Texas and 16 in NU's victory at Colorado. Ruud finished the season tied for seventh nationally in total tackles. In addition to his 149 total tackles, Ruud finished second on the team to Demorrio Williams in tackles for loss (14-39) and quarterback hurries (11), and ranked third on the team in sacks (2.5-21). He also forced a team-high four fumbles, and recovered three others, including a 15-yard return for a touchdown in NU's 17-7 season-opening win over No. 24 Oklahoma State.
Linebacker Demorrio Williams played a dominant role on the Blackshirt defense by finishing second on the team in total tackles, while leading the Huskers in sacks, tackles for loss, quarterback hurries and fumble recoveries, setting the tone for one of the nation's top defenses. Williams' play-making abilities helped him become a fourth-round pick (101st overall selection) of the Atlanta Falcons in the 2004 NFL Draft. The 6-1, 215-pounder finished 2003 with 128 total tackles, second only to Barrett Ruud's NU record 149 stops. Williams' 128 stops were the fifth-highest single-season total in Husker history, and his 83 solo tackles set a Nebraska single-season record. He and Ruud became the first pair of Huskers to top the century mark in tackles in the same season since 1981. Williams' huge senior year moved him into the top 20 on Nebraska's career tackle list in just two seasons after transferring from Kilgore Junior College. In pass rushing situations, Williams lined up at defensive end and wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks by notching 11 sacks for 77 yards lost. The 11 sacks are a school record for linebackers and tied for fourth on NU's single-season sack chart. The 11 sacks ranked third nationally among linebackers, while ha added four fumble recoveries. He also caused a pair of fumbles and hurried opposing quarterbacks a team-high 13 times, including three interceptions caused.
61 Atha, Peter MIKE 6-3 230 So. Topeka, Kan.
53 Reeves, Mitch MIKE 6-3 225 RFr. Weston, Neb. (Bishop Neumann)
38 Ruud, Barrett MIKE 6-2 235 Jr. Lincoln, Neb. (Southeast)
42 Safranek, Steve MIKE 6-1 230 Sr. Omaha, Neb. (Gross)
54 Sievers, Chad MIKE 6-3 215 Jr. Valley, Neb. (New Mexico State) (Valley)
35 Tomasevicz, Curt MIKE 6-0 220 Sr. Shelby, Neb. (Shelby)
11 Cooper, Ira BUCK 6-2 235 Jr. Omaha, Neb. (Westside)
48 Denman, Charlie BUCK 5-11 230 So. Rusk, Texas (Rusk)
2 Hollowell, T.J. BUCK 6-0 220 Sr. Copperas Cove, Texas (Copperas Cove)
43 Lewin, Kristopher BUCK 6-3 205 RFr. Miami, Fla. (Dade Christian)
51 Ruud, Bo BUCK 6-3 215 Fr. Lincoln, Neb. (Southeast)
39 Buller, Chad WILL 5-11 215 Sr. Henderson, Neb. (Heartland)
41 Franzluebbers, Jared WILL 6-0 210 So. Dodge, Neb. (Dodge)
40 Hopkins, Lannie WILL 6-2 215 Jr. Rowlett, Texas (Rowlett)
49 Ickes, Adam WILL 6-2 215 So. Page, Neb. (Orchard)
13 McKeon, Corey WILL 6-1 210 Fr. Naperville, Ill. (North)
7 Williams, Demorrio WILL 6-1 215 Sr. Beckville, Texas (Kilgore) (Beckville)
James Moore Aug 19 08
bnahusker,
lol brother!!! When you put it that way, well it suffices to say that you're right!!!
GO BIG RED!!!
bnahusker Aug 19 08
James Moore.....
Would you teach those words to my wife? Please!?
Bill in Iowa.......
Damn!
Great reading. Are you auditioning for a spot on the staff?
Again, I must say, DAY-UM!
I don't remember where I heard this but......
Offense is aptitude - Defense is attitude.
Let's hope the attitudes have fully recovered.
GBR
Bob
darren Aug 19 08
Oh my goodness - Bill in Iowa just hijacked my next planned post! The 2003-to-2008 comparisons are inevitable.
My review of the lineups then and now sees the teams as fairly equitable in terms of talent on D. But, the differences among different units or corps on D make the comparison's tough. I know that NU 2008 is not as good as NU 2003 at linebacker. Though - on talent - I'd give the edge to 2008 in the secondary. (Remember, nobody had heard of the Bullocks bros before Pelini and Sanders got a hold of them). The defensive line is a big, fat question mark. Talent is there. Can it be maximized??
Dwayne Aug 19 08
Bill, that's just too much to read. Can you put it in graphic form?
Bill in Iowa Aug 19 08
Guys, thanks for the encouraging words! Dwayne, I am working on a pie chart as we speak. Darren, sorry about hijacking your piece, but don't let this deter you, I would love to hear your analysis and comparisons between the 2003 defense and the 2008 defense. For instance, as I was scraping this material from Huskers.com, I was wondering if Cody Glenn could become the 2008 version of Demario Williams? Or mabye Barry Turner is the 2008 version of Trevor Johnson?