Huskers: Coulda Been a Contendah?
Tuesday afternoon I was driving home from work listening to Kansas City sports talk radio. Local sports talk personality Kevin Kietzman was discussing Big 12 recruiting with well known college football analyst Jeremy Crabtree. They were mainly covering the topic of in-state prospects. It was obvious that they had quite an admiration for Gary Pinkel and his ability to lock up in-state recruits so quickly. When turning towards the many wide receivers Missouri is trying to snatch up, they did, however, say something that quite intrigued me. The name of the particular receiver was garbled in static as I crossed the Broadway Bridge, but they said he was not a lock, and in fact Nebraska had a good shot at him. What happened next was amazing.
Nothing. The topic did not come to a complete tirade on the Husker's 2009 recruiting tactics so far. No complaints about the lack of four and five star recruits Nebraska is trying to get. No yelling about the lack of offers Bo Pelini is giving out. No whining that they'd rather have one stars that work hard compared to a five star that has "bad work ethic." The conversation actually went on into a civilized discussion about all the recruiting efforts of the Big 12 schools.
Now I'm not here to stir up the recruiting pot (I'm such a liar), but outside of the state, nobody sees a team recruiting effort imploding. Nebraska is just like everyone else - they've got a shot at much of the really good talent out there. There is so much time between now and 2009 signing day. Of course I look at Oklahoma and Texas and wish we could continually guarantee the same caliber of recruits that just walk through their doors year in and year out, but where would the fun be in that?
Nebraskans and Husker fans don't just judge a coach and team on a winning effort, they have to win the recruiting game as well. And I think it's worth about three games to us. If Pelini goes 7-5 like the Hot Seat predicts, his record in the minds of fans will be different. Knock recruiting out in the third round and fans see the contendah at 10-5, but be a bum and the people see 7-8. I think he'll go about "2-1" in recruiting and we should expect to see returns on the time invested in many of the players he has picked up.
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17 comments so far
bnahusker Jul 02 08
Great "First Pitch" Tom.
I suspect that a good portion of the blogging, talk radio rants and chatting about Big Red recruiting is just an excuse to go after another target. (Solich, Callahan, etc.) I also think that CFB recruiting is on a par with MLB drafting. They are both important parts of their sports, but sometimes the results can't be known for years. I suspect that CFB is a bit less of a crapshoot, but nothing is certain with teenagers. I'm no Met or Dodger fan but Mike Piazza, a last round pick as a favor by a relative, is proof that predicting the maturation of people is a very inexact science. The Staff needs to recruit well, and they needs to recruit right. I suspect that they are already.
Like you, I live in Missouri (Springfield), and there is still a bit of a "Show Me" attitude here. It is sometimes nice to get less opinionated coverage on the radio.
Bo will have his own track record soon enough, so I'm going to sit back and enjoy the ride.
GBR
Bob
brad Jul 02 08
Watching them work in recruiting I worry about our overall talent getting Soliched again.
And guys rush on here and say Callahan's stars led to 5-7 blah, blah, blah, but that's just plain stupid.
Callahan never had a single class of his as seniors. He had the botched Solich/transition class of 2004 that he got like three weeks to work on when he got here as his seniors last year. His 2005 class was largely aimed at patching numerous holes with guys he thought could contribute immediately--many of whom were JUCO guys who played well and then were gone before last year.
Callahan's 2006 and 2007 classes are what we need to be doing on a regular basis. I thank god every day that we cleared out the last of Solich's classes this year. He had a handful of great defensive players spread out over four classes, but our overall defensive talent and 99% of our offensive talent was weak. That sort of recruiting ought to never be accepted again.
We know we can compete with other top schools for talent. We need to quit being pansies about it and talking about the mythical Nebraska way and just go do it.
Dwayne Jul 02 08
I don't know if too many people said that Callahan couldn't recruit. Many people I've talked to thought the contrary. The issue I had with him has always been number one, player development. I looked for some improvement last season and just didn't see it on the defensive side, but quite the opposite. Callahan had to take responsibility for that downspin. I've always thought NU needed a coach who can develop and motivate almost equally as recruiting.
HuskerFan4Life Jul 02 08
Brad,
Can you elaborate on how Nebraska is being "pansies" in their approach to recruiting?
brad Jul 02 08
We are going back to the weenie 'we can't get players like that' Solich mindset.
It's defeatist. We know we can compete for top talent. We don't need to be slinking around the country trying to scoop up guys no one else really wants.
HuskerFan4Life Jul 02 08
There is alot more to recruiting than the mythical 4 and 5 star prospects. I personally think that you are way too caught up in the so called recruiting experts, but with that being said I respect your concerns that Nebraska is not getting the best talent available.
I think you need to look at the big picture and the recipe that TO used for 25 years of success at Nebraska and also keep in mind that Dear old Nebraska U. has fallen off the map as a college football powerhouse. The foundation for success at Nebraska has always been keeping the best talent in the state of Nebraska. Let's face it, farms kids are big and strong and their undying love for Nebraska football makes them produce at high intensity levels, and become so called overachievers on the field. Once you secure the instate talent you sprinkle in the blue chip studs that can break a game wide open. Along with all of this requires coaching and getting the most out of the talent that you have.
I don't think that anybody can argue that the Callahan regime failed miserably in this facet of the game and that the new staff has the credentials to prove that their teams will play hard and give 100% on the field and in the classroom. I also think that once recruits see Nebraska as a hard playing team that does not give up 76 points to KU and 70 to TT, and the team does start living up to the tradition and respect of being a quality opponent you will see the blue chippers taking notice and want to play for Nebraska.
brad Jul 02 08
I don't think I would call four and five star recruits "mythical." These recruits aren't randomly awarded their stars. They get them because they dominate their competition and are better athletes. They work hard to. What's mythical is our fans assumption that they are lazy prima donnas.
That said, four and five star recruits aren't the be-all-and-end-all of recruiting. I tend to look a lot more at what our competition is for a player. As I've said before, there are three types of three star recruits:
1) Ones you compete with other solid D-I football programs for.
2) Ones you compete with Army, Buffalo, and Ohio for.
3) Ones who no one is really after but get a third star because Nebraska offered them and the websites figured 'What the hell. We have a lot of Nebraska customers.'
If we are getting a lot of category one then we are doing fine. If we are loading up on categories 2 and 3 then we are in trouble.
I agree in your optimism about Pelini being able to motivate.
HuskerFan4Life Jul 02 08
I chose the word mythical only because they have never played a down of college football. I would love for this staff to load up on all 4-5 star talent, but the fact still remains that just because a kid has the stars that does not equal success in college football. I think that everybody needs to relax and let this staff build this program back to a solid football team. It would really be nice if Bo were allowed to at least coach one season before people start bashing him on his recruiting ability.
James Moore Jul 02 08
Welcome Doombob!!!
Some points about recruiting and our class at the moment:
1) We are not Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio
State, USC, Michigan (holy smokes
Rich Rodriguez got a class at the
moment), Florida or Georgia. Not
for the moment. Not from a
historical or traditional
perspective do we "trail" these
programs but as a "hot" name
brand for prospective recruits.
We're not going to be able to
PICK at our leisure 18-22 of the
most reputable prospects before
the end of the summer, and not
the most desirable ones according
to national scouting
services. Not the end of the
world. And DON'T expect this to
be permanent. Wait a few years
and see what winning and bowl
games mean. Suddendly Texas,
California, Florida, and other
prospects throughout the nation
will become much more warm to
us. Also of note is that quite
a few folks passed on Jared
Tomich, the Mackovicka's, and
several other fine FOOTBALL
players who turned out to be
more than OK for Husker Nation.
We're not off to THAT bad a
start. We're also in legitimate
contention for some very highly
regarded prospects. We'll be
OK. Besides our class looked
great last September, and
how did it look in February?
Let's see what we have on Signing
Day. . .
2) Robinson is going to be a heck
of a ballplayer for us. LOOK at
the film!!! I've said it before
many times on this site
regarding him and he has
potential to be a very, very,
very good Big 12 IB. . .
3) You've got to develop talent once
you get it. 4 or 5 stars is
great, but the coaching staff
must work it, develop it, push
it, and get the guys to play
HARD!!! To buy into the scheme,
the coaching staff, and the
program!!!
4) Honestly, do you believe that the
talent cupboard is bare? That
the new coaching staff has
NOTHING to work with? That
Thenarse, Culbert, Asante, West,
Blue, Dillard, Wortman,
Washington, Compton,
Steinkuhler, Turner, Suh,
Potter, Glenn, etc., won't have
their games improve? Husker
Nation you watch, tagging off,
8 & 9 man pre-snap principles,
cover 2, and some of the best
blitz packages won't pay ANY
dividends? That recruits won't
find some appeal in THAT type of
aggressive scheme, in a Sea of
Red?
No need to panic. We are going to be more than OK. Tom, congratulations and as always. . .
GO BIG RED!!!
cvldfg Jul 02 08
James, What the hell was that? lol
James Moore Jul 02 08
cvldfg,
Glad I was able to provide a laugh for you on your visit!!! Obviously Tom hit a sensitive topic for me, the apprehension by some regarding the quality or lack of, the current Husker class. . .
Jeremy in MPLS Jul 03 08
Brad, it was for chicken little fans like you that the article was written in the first place.
You've got your panties in a bunch over conclusions to which you've jumped, without any substance.
After last year, and all the attrition we saw among our commits starting in about October, luring a bunch of big stars in was next to impossible.
As far as this year's class is concerned, there is a lot of skilled guys who we're on. Star guys. It's also July for a program with a first year coach coming off its worst season in decades.
If you expected a list of ten 4 star guys by now, you're being naive and not seeing reality.
These coaches can recruit, and I think the Corn's improvement on the field this year will garner some big attention.
brad Jul 03 08
Jeremy in PMS,
Anyone can make petty insults. Until your arguments join reality I really don't care about your thoughts.
We aren't recruiting well. Will we in the future? Perhaps, but right now this level of recruiting is poor. Anyone in the country you asked to look at our recruiting outside of homer Nebraska fans would say it's lousy thus far under Pelini. All the hot air from blind homers like you won't make it otherwise.
Grant Jul 03 08
Well....to bring the conversation back a little bit...I, personally, don't believe recruiting is poor. Signing day is not until FEBRUARY! We have yet to host recruits on game day, and panic buttons seem to be being pushed (at least by some). The sky is not falling. Coaching staff is right on pace and doing just fine. Take a breath, drink a cold one, and enjoy the long weekend.
DT Jul 03 08
I've sort of talked myself into a circle a couple of times on this so I'll do my best not to here...
But I loved James Moore's summation...great points all.
I do agree that there is plenty of time to land many of the the quality recruits that we're in on, but the fact remains that (aside from retaining Compton in February) the Pelini staff has not had much in the way of eye-popping recruiting results so far. And throughout camp season (where, traditionally, we see a few commits join the fray) we've been pretty stagnant. So while I'm not quite in the "sky is falling" crowd, I can see the point of their concern. But all the same, the staff does appear to be recruiting to fill needs and that's a good sign. I think that many potential NU signees to the class of '09 are taking a "wait and see" approach. The predicted on-field success that many foresee should lend a big hand toward jump-starting the recruiting engine. "Big" wins out of the gate (VT for example) could very well get the ball rolling. But until Bo gets his first "wow" recruit to commit, that fact will still linger in the minds of many.
One thing that I do sort of take issue with is this fairly-common mindset...it's sort of displayed by HuskerFan4Life in a comment here (although I'm not in total disagreement with all of his points...I actually agree with much of what he had to say, but this one kind of stuck out) "just because a kid has the stars that does not equal success in college football". This has turned into a pretty common refrain utilized in attacking "the experts" and those that choose to follow the information and evaluation that they provide on incoming talent. I think it's sort of unfair because:
1-No one ever has claimed that stars do indeed equal success in college football
2-It's almost like accusing the recruiting evaluators of not having a clue what they're talking about...which is pretty widely regarded as not being the case. The fact is that the recruiting services are more often correct about how recruiting results correlate to on-field success than they are wrong. To wit:
http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2008/1/21/1614/43228
This piece is best summarized up by SMQ's comment:
"If Rivals indicates a team’s talent is good, it’s probably right; if it indicates it’s just average, or below average, that team probably still has a shot – but only to an extent. You’d be wrong if you cast your lot with the gurus completely, and wronger if you ignored them."
And that's what I take from a lot of the "stars don't matter" comments...a willingness to ignore the experts in order to justify an otherwise meager recruiting effort on the part of the team one follows. (See also: the Solich years)
Top NFL draft picks flop and fizzle out all the time...but can you imagine any fan of an NFL team saying "who we take in the draft doesn't make any difference to our eventual on-field success"?! It seems to me to be a similar type of logic being employed by the many who discount the evaluation of talent that the recruiting services provide. Resting on the crutch that "some 5-stars don't pan out, so the whole system is invalid" would seem to indicate that one would rather pass on a chance to have some of these recent recruits join their team:
-Joe McKnight; Noel Devine; Arrelious Benn; Percy Harvin; Matt Stafford; Chris Wells; CJ Spiller; Keith Rivers, Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays, CJ Gable & Stafon Johnson (all looked pretty good vs. NU in recent years); Tim Tebow; Jonathan Stewart; DeSean Jackson; Darren McFadden; Tray Blackmon; Adrian Peterson; Ted Ginn, Jr.; Early Doucet; Ernie Sims; Reggie Bush; Andre Caldwell; Jarvis Moss; Vince Young; Haloti Ngata...not to mention: Marlon Lucky.
So yeah, they may be wrong some of the time...but there are at least two dozen times where they were right. And even in many of the instances where the 5-star doesn't pan out (Rhett Bomar, Ryan Perrilloux, Marcus Vick, Melvin Alaeze, Fred Rouse) it's often not any sort of misdiagnosis of the particular player's "talent" that can be called into question.
Among Heisman Pundit's top 10 running backs heading into '08:
http://heismanpundit.com/archives/1602
All of them were Rivals top 100 coming out of HS (4/5 stars).
Among Phil Steele's top 19 contenders for the Heisman, a full dozen received at least 4 stars/Top 100 ranks from rivals...with the rest all being QB's (Bradford, White, Grothe, Daniel, Boeckman and Cullen Harper receiving 3-stars and Central Michigan's LeFevour the lone 2-star rank).
I may very well have gone extremely off-topic here, but just wanted to point out (as the aforementioned SMQ story asserts) that the examples of why recruiting rankings do matter are bountiful. I hear an awful lot nowadays about how they don't...without a lot of concrete evidence as to why...other than that the Nebraska Wayâ„¢ conventional wisdom of the moment dictates so.
But great first effort by doombob and great discussion on the part of all the commenters here.
tom Jul 04 08
I just wanted to congratulate all of you who understood the point of the article. You know who you are.
Bugeater Jul 13 08
"Now I'm not here to stir up the recruiting pot (I'm such a liar), but outside of the state, nobody sees a team recruiting effort imploding."
As another out-state Husker I can also say that nobody in the environs where I live thinks our recruiting is going WELL either. If there is a dearth of comments about its mediocrity its most likely due to the fact we've been invisible, rather than people elsewhere having a superior grasp on NU's recruiting than our own fans. I think that assertion is a rather silly one to make on its face.
Perhaps the signing of Cody Green will change that, as momentum is very important. Maybe even more important in my view is the effort that went into Cody's recuitment. The staff really tossed aside much of the nonsense that marked our recruiting efforts to this point, and sold out to get him. He got extra attention, and Bo set aside a good chunk of personal one-on-one time with his mother during thier visit.
That's what it takes with recruits of Cody's caliber, instead of waiting for him to come to us because "We want kids who want us." You go out and CONVINCE them to want us, as Brad correctly stated above. While Cody's signing is huge, hearing how we got him to sign is even better news in my opinion. They're learning.