Does Nebraska Have Five Great Players?
8 comments so far
July 29, 2008 by
Since way before we launched this blog Steve and I have espoused a theory that great teams (championship teams of any sort) have at least five great players. Is it a bit of a truism that great teams are made up of the best players? Sure. It's pretty easy to identify great players after the season. The crucial part is if fans can find and look to those "great" players in understanding the prospects for their teams’ upcoming season. I described this theory a few years ago, and used it as a litmus test for the 2006 team. I got it pretty close then. So, I thought it may be worth running the same examination on the 2008 team.
Context First
Really, I don't have the time or energy to re-create my argument about "five great players." I highly recommend you read that piece from 2006 to get the nuances. Yes, I know there is some chicken-egg phenomena going on. And, yes, I know 'great' can be a relative term. But, the gist of it is this - it takes two great players to be a winning team. Three or four great players can help secure a division. Winning the conference requires five. I ended up getting pretty close to the mark with that 2006 squad, which was nice. Though, my early forecast for 2007 was way off. I blame that on coaching. But, anyway...where does that leave NU in 2008? Not so good right now.
Reviewing the list of preseason all-conference players, NU just has one. Marlon Lucky is the only Husker honored. Not surprisingly, conference favorites Missouri and Oklahoma clean up on that list. We'll see how that plays out. My amigo Steve reminded me the other day that the same two teams have never qualified for the Big 12 title game in consecutive years. Just saying...
The Candidates
Okay, so lets all count Marlon Lucky as "great player" #1. If that's the only one, then NU may very well have a losing season. So, where do they find anywhere from 1 to 4 more candidates for honors?
Start with who the coaches chose to represent them at Big 12 Media Days. Clearly, the NU offensive line is expected to be a strong point of the team. And Matt Slauson is the best or most well known player on that unit. So, he tops the list. Next, Barry Turner flashed fantastic ability as a freshman (Freshman All-American honors). Then, he got heavier and the coaching dropped off. So did his production. Pelini and staff were thrilled with his spring, and he's gotten lean and fast again. Look for Turner to be a big factor for the Blackshirts, and the next most likely candidate.
Joe Ganz? Love the kid, but you have to consider him a dark horse at this point. He's only had three starts. There are a bevy of talented quarterbacks in the league, so the competition for honors is fierce. And, if NU goes to plan, they will be running the ball a lot more than when Ganz was playing last year. I'm not saying he can't or won't play well. But, conditions prevent him from having much potential to get defined as "great".
Additional Talent
The next players who I think may help get NU get significantly better and become candidates for awards all have three things in common. All were highly-regarded recruits. All have shown signs of very good play. And, all are in a unique position to step up this year.
Nate Swift made the list I wrote back in 2006, and he makes the list again. He's been productive and shown talent so far. Now, as a senior, he has the chance to be the "lead dog" for the wide receivers. Ganz has a very good relationship with him. Now is the time. And if not, NU has a talented but inexperienced corps of young wide receiver talent ready to take a chance.
Many felt Phillip Dillard should have been the starting middle linebacker midway through the season last year. Again, he was a big time recruit. And, he's played quite a bit. He's lost weight. Middle linebackers have thrived playing for Pelini (See Ruud, Barrett). He is the clear leader of a rather thin group of NU linebackers. You have to consider Dillard a candidate for "greatness".
We have all witnessed Ndamukong Suh's ability to dominate along the defensive line. This guy has the goods. He just has not done it consistently. He can't disappear for stretches of games or even the season. Injuries, lack of adequate depth, and coaching could all be possible causes for his relative underperformance to date. A healthy, well backed up and well coached Suh could be a "great" difference maker for NU in 2008.
Finally, I'd advise that fans don't rule out the safeties. Ricky Thenarse, Larry Asante and Major Culbert all had fans drooling when they were recruited. The Bullocks brothers thrived under Pelini and defensive backs coach Marvin Sanders in 2003. And Craig Steltz was named All-American while playing safety for Pelini at LSU in 2007. If the coaches can get the most from the talent they inherited, I'd say one of the NU safeties is a dark horse for some sort of honors.
Remember what is at stake. If NU wants to be a winning team, they need two "great" players, in my opinion. To win the division takes at least three and very likely four. Being a champion requires five. Most would agree that one is easy to spot. Some case can be made for as many as nine Huskers to join him for 2008. Who will step up?
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kalthalior Jul 29 08
I would include Zach Potter and Armando Murillo on the potential "great" defensive list, and I'd also add Lydon Murtha (highly touted as a recruit) on offense. One position I'd like to see Watson open up the game more offensively with is the TE group. If someone at that position can step up in the short to intermediate pass receiving game, it would have a real effect on both the running game and going downfield. Maybe McNiell can do it, maybe someone else if he doesn't.
Dwayne Jul 29 08
Here's my 5 in no particular order: Lucky(lunch pail player), Slauson(veteran), Suh(warrior), Thenarse(heavy hitter), and Culbert(benefactor of the heavy hitter). These guys will hopefully make those around them step it up. The one guy that really needs to step it up this season will be Dillard. He had all sorts of recongnition coming out of high school and will be the anchor of all the backers. In my opinion he may not be the most opportune on the defense with Bo's schemes, but will be solid no doubt.
carlinthemarlin Jul 29 08
I've said it more than once: I think Murillo's going to open some eyes this season. He didn't get a lot of cred last year, but you'll notice he was rarely the guy getting beat. He was pretty lock down. The problem was our defense was so crummy it didn't matter that Murillo was taking away once receiver pretty much every play, because there'd always be somewhere else for the offense to go. I fully expect him to have a big year, maybe even all Big-XII caliber.
Bill in Iowa Jul 29 08
I think there are some more dark horses to add to the mix. We have recently learned that Helu is going to compete for starting position against Lucky. The coaches are very high on Helu and he had a great spring. Although, inexperienced Gilleylen has tremendous speed and could really turn out to be deep threat and a game changer. The OL is the deepest and best position group, I think there is certainly one or two more difference makers in that group that will show up besides Slauson.
Although there is a lot of question marks on the DL from last season, this group has a lot of unrealized potential. Besides Turner, there could be another one or two difference makers among the group. Maybe Potter, Stein or Suh? At LB lets not forget Wortman showed up this spring in a big way and the coaches are really high on Glenn. It's possible one of those two could emerge as a game changer. I am not making any predictions here, but it's exciting to see the coaches go with their philosophy of getting the best players on the field. You get a real sense that the horses are being let out of the barn and onto the field. The young and inexperienced players might make a lot mistakes and disapoint, or they might just become great.
ze bop Jul 29 08
I don't think we have any 'great' players right now. But I agree with all the ones mentioned as having potential. You didnt mention Castille who I think will be a legitimate great player for the team, probably starting in '08.
Lucky has a chance and I would love to see that happen.
If Ganz picks up where he left off last year, you would absolutely have to consider him a great player and too bad he is only here for one more season.
I'm anxious to see what evolves with Niles Paul too, and maybe Marcus Mendoza.
Austin Jul 30 08
KICKERS. In your 2006 articles you said a team needs about 5 'great' players... from offense, defense and ST. Don't forget about NU's kickers... they will probably win NU some close games this year.
We have a reliable short/mid range field goal kicker (Alex Henery), a reliable and accurate punter (Dan Titchner), and a placekicker/long range field goal kicker with a bomb for leg (Adi Kunalic). I think there is a 'great' player among that group.
The coverage teams should do well, now we just need sparks from the return game.
Husker Mike Jul 31 08
If you just look at what some of these guys have done so far on a consistent basis... no, we don't have five great players.
You might even argue that we don't have a single one.
However, I've got this feeling that we'll have a different opinion on this one by November. Some people have named a few candidates; I'll bet that some other names will jump out this season. I don't know who they are either... but I've just got this sneaking suspicion that there's a lot more talent on this roster waiting to explode.
Jerry Maly Aug 26 08
The BIG RED will win minimum of 10 games in 2008. The defensse will be ranked in the top 10 nationally in 2 or 3 categories. Bo has them moving. Bo should have been picked 4 years ago. Also Joe Ganz will be great with his time of learning valuable.
GO BIG RED.