Bo’s Mandate: Give Up 14-17 Fewer Points per Game
8 comments so far
July 2, 2008 by
As the season creeps closer, you hear more conversations about season expectations. If you take a poll of Nebraska fans about expectations for the 2008 Husker squad, you’ll likely hear the answer -- “eight wins.” You may even hear some call for a return to the Top 25. It’s easy to look at the schedule, consider home games and opponents and try to pick 8 victories. I do it all the time. But, the real bellwether for winning football is defense. To return to respectable form there, Nebraska needs massive improvement.
Defense Wins Championships
Things become cliché when they are said too often. Things are often said because they are facts, even truisms. And the great football cliché is that defense wins championships. You can’t win anything if you don’t defend well. Now there are many folks who like to dig in and look at all kinds of defensive statistics. Some are important (turnovers). Others are not so much. Personally, I gravitate toward one above all else – scoring defense. The winner of the game is determined by the scoreboard. So, when all else fails just look there for the stat that matters. Now, here comes the ugly part.
Last year, Nebraska gave up … wait for it…38 points per game. 38! Every time I think of that number, I am afraid my head is going to explode. Sure, the mean average isn’t the best measure because the real blood lettings (41, 65, 76 points!) can exasperate things. But, just consider that only Florida International, Toledo, SMU, Rice and North Texas were worse than NU in terms of scoring defense. That’s it, five teams. That’s the list.
Evolving Expectations
So, it’s pretty clear that giving up that many points isn’t going to get it done. So, what is? Consider the correlation between the scoring defense stats and the final AP top 25 for 2007. Of the 28 teams that surrendered 21 or fewer points per game last year, more than half (15) finished ranked in the final top 25, with many of the rest of that group at least receiving votes in the poll. Ten of the 15 teams with best scoring defenses finished ranked in the top 25. And, of the 25 teams ranked in the final AP poll, only three gave up an average of more than 24 points per game –Texas (24.6), Texas Tech (25.8), and Tennessee (28.1).
One quick side note if I may...Reviewing the defense stats sort or drove home for me how high-octane Big 12 offenses have become. Consider how highly rated Texas Tech, Texas, and Missouri all were at the end of last season despite none of them being in the top 40 in scoring defense. They all relied on offense. But – counterpoint – Big 12 Champion Oklahoma only gave up 18 per game last year. And, Kansas finished 12-1 backed by a unit that only gave up 16 points on average. Okay, end of aside…
So, what really are the expectations for the Huskers and for Coach Pelini in 2008? If fans expect the Huskers to win 8, 9, or 10 games then they’ll need to be in at least the top 50 in scoring defense, and that means giving up 14 fewer points per game, to 24 per contest. To finish ranked in the top 25, they may need to improve by about 17 points per game, or an average of 21. At this point I would almost settle for a number under 30 or for Nebraska just to appear on the first page of printed results.
It makes me wonder if we have started to believe that Pelini is some kind of miracle worker. Giving up two or even three scores less per game with essentially the same personnel that ranked with the defensive dregs in 2007 is a tall order. If they pull that off, Pelini and staff would be considered a masterful hire at NU, almost regardless of record. Or it might just be another indictment of the previous regime. Though, as mentioned earlier, three of NU’s Big 12 brethren achieved national rankings in 2007 while giving up nearly four touchdowns per game.
So, the next time you find yourself in a conversation about team expectation with somebody, try dropping in “giving up 14 to 17 fewer points per game should do it.” If they react to you with a blank stare, then you can say 8 wins.
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carlinthemarlin Jul 03 08
The thing that gives me hope is not only the improvement Bo brought the last time he was here, but the improvement Wisconsin got the year after Cosgrove left. Cosgrove's last defense ranked 40th over all (or there abouts). The next year, Wisoncsin was 9th. None of this means we'll be a top twenty-five defense next year, but I do think we're going to surprise a few people with just how improved we are.
darren Jul 03 08
Good point about Wisconsin, Carlin.
Considering them, there is no doubt that Bielema can flat-out coach. That's a factor.
For NU, I know that Steve often talks about how if NU can fall off so fast from Bo (circa 2003) to Coz (in 2004) then doing the opposite might just be possible too.
donfl Jul 03 08
We may not end up being a top 25 defensive team, but I have no doubts that top 50 is not out of the question. All the naysayers forget what BO did with an atrocious defense under Bohl. Wins will come when we get back to the fear that the BLACKSHIRTS carried as their mantra. GBR
Greg Morrow Jul 03 08
Maybe miracle no.1 would be getting the defensive players heads back. How frustrating it must have been and now, reinforcement from the head down to phyical confidence.
Miracle no.2 might be gaining an extra possession per quarter, with some 3 and outs. Those were few, last year. The sustained drives were brutal. That could account for 10 or more points right there.
Miracle no.3 has to tip to the turnover issue. Being up one per game could translate into a field goal average and decide it for the Corn in a close game.
Austin Jul 04 08
Turnovers. Turnovers are the key for the D to allow the Huskers to win games. I think the D will be improved in turns of yards and points surrendered, but the improvement will be limited by the facts that the players still have to learn a new system and they weren't that good last year. I see the D as being the 'bend-but-don't-break' type, giving up yards and points, but giving the team a chance to win by creating turnovers.
In the spring camp, turnovers were a priority for Bo as he encouraged DB's to look back and try to intercept the ball. When he was D-coordinator here before, the Huskers forced a lot of turnovers. (I was trying to find the stats on this, but I got to get to work soon).
With the high-octane offenses of the Big 12 set to become even more potent this year it will be difficult to keep the scoring D average below 14-17 ppg. Turnovers will help in keeping opponents scoring down, but I feel the primary focus should be creating turnovers instead of keeping the score low. The offense should be productive enough to capitalize on the turnovers.
ze bop Jul 04 08
How about a shutout in the mix? How about against W MI? That would bolster confidence.
darren Jul 04 08
Check out this bit of stat work from 'Coherbie' a poster over at Huskerpedia's BBS. He posted this while discussing this story. And after seeing it, I thought "duh, Darren, you really should have included these stats." So ... here they are. Thanks, Coherbie.
Here's pts allowed each year:
2007....38
2006....18
2005....21
2004....27
2003....15 (Pelini-led defense)
2002....24
2001....16
2000....19
so in terms of wins/record + (pts allowed) correlation:
2001....11-2 (16)
2000....10-2 (19)
2003....10-3 (15)
2006.....9-5 (18)
2005.....8-4 (21)
2002.....7-7 (24)
2004.....5-6 (27)
2007.....5-7 (38)
Definitely seems to be a direct relationship between pts allowed & one's record.... so using said "mandated improvement" the math would look something like: 38 (last year) minus a 14 to 17 pt improvement = 21 to 24 pts allowed. Consulting said chart above, that equals 7 or 8 win range.
shane Jul 12 08
I know its late to comment on this, but I was thinking about the math. from 2002 to 2003, we saw a 37.5% improvement in scoring defence. 37.5% of 38? 14 points. 2003 is a 44.4% decline from 2004. 44.4% of 38? 17 points.