Not All Games Are Created Equal
24 comments so far
June 26, 2008 by
One of my least favorite pieces of "coach speak" is that all games are equal and treated the same. On some levels, that's just baloney. Not all games are created equal. Playing Oklahoma in Norman is not the same as playing at Iowa State. Playing Western Michigan is not the same as facing Missouri. Coaches know this. Don't kid yourself, it affects their behavior. In their odd hours, do you think coaches pop in tape of San Jose State or Virginia Tech? When motivating players in workouts, do coaches mention Texas Tech or New Mexico State? So, for the sake of typical fans, I humbly offer my opinion on which games carry the most weight for Nebraska this year.
Before the listing of importance, I feel the need to offer a couple of caveats. Call it covering my rear or hedging my bets if you like. But, these days, its very unwise to assume anything.
Caveat #1 - I'll take 7 wins any way we can get them. Every win is a big win, especially when you are coming off of a losing season like NU is. So, I know that ranking their importance is being picky. Hey, it's the off season. This is the kind of thing I think about.
Caveat #2 - Yes, I know that the level of preparation has to be consistent to prevent upsets, especially now in the age of football parity. It is getting pretty obvious that there are very few "helmet games" for big schools. (Appalachian State, please pick up a white courtesy phone.) Brands don't win, prepared football teams do.
Now that my rear end is sufficiently covered, I offer my list of Husker games, ranked by their level of importance - 12 being the least and 1 being the most.
12 - New Mexico State - The Aggies seem to be one of the more sure wins on NU's schedule. The Huskers would be facing a losing team from a smaller conference in Lincoln. And, NU would have played twice at this point.
11 - San Jose State - I gave SJS the edge over New Mexico State because the Spartans have had more success in recent years, and may provide a better test for NU. Still, the game doesn't merit TV coverage.
10 - Western Michigan - Western Michigan isn't necessarily better than the other two early non-conference foes. But, it is the home opener. So, it is a more "important" game.
9 - Baylor - The Bears have proven to be the doormat of the Big 12 so far. The Huskers get to face them at home.
8 - Iowa State - ISU struggled terribly last year, but showed signs of life. It's a road game in the conference, so you can't take anything for granted. Husker fans would hate for this to be a game that trip's up the Big Red.
7 - Kansas State - Again, it is a conference road game, so anything can happen. But, with the influx of junior college players, who knows what KSU will be like in November? Personally, I mark this game on the calendar.
6 - Colorado - NU's designated rivalry game on the day after turkey day. Games with CU tend to have a little bit of mean spirit in them, as the Buffs enjoy getting after NU. Last year's game kept NU out of bowl eligibility.
5 - Kansas - The Jayhawks were last year's feel-good story in college football. Their hanging 76 on the Huskers didn't feel good to NU fans. The Huskers will be seeking a measure of revenge this year in Lincoln.
4 - Virginia Tech - Not enough respect for the defending ACC champions? Maybe. I just value conference games more than non-conference. This an important early test for NU, for good reason.
3 - Texas Tech - The third hardest game the Huskers have in conference play. Tech has the returning talent for a breakout season. And, NU has struggled against the Red Raiders in recent years. Playing Lubbock makes it tough.
2 - Missouri - The Tigers are the favorites in the Big 12 North. The winner of this game has the early advantage in trying to win the division. Winning would be a turning point for NU. Losing would break up a long home winning streak over Missouri.
1 - Oklahoma - Oklahoma is the class of the Big 12. If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. I'm skeptical of the Husker's chances in Norman. But it is clearly the biggest game on the 2008 slate.
Postseason?
I'm not ready to go and make post-season assumptions for the Huskers at this point. Clearly, the ranking of a bowl game would depend on the caliber of a bowl and the opponent. Pardon me if I don't consider and Independence Bowl birth a big deal. But, anything from the Holiday Bowl to a BCS birth would go near the top of the list.
The Big 12 Championship Game also counts as post season play. Should the Huskers qualify to play a December game in Kansas City, I'd put it at the top of the list. Capturing the North division, having a shot at the conference title and entering what is really a one-game playoff for a BCS birth would be beyond most folks' expectations, and make the game extremely important.
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brad Jun 26 08
Don't kid yourself, Missouri is more important to us this year than Oklahoma. They kicked our asses last year, they are in our division, they have potential to take over our division, they are our first Big 12 game, another blow-out loss to them early could cause major damage to the rest of our campaign and weaken Pelini's status here greatly, and finally, they haven't one in Lincoln since 1978.
darren Jun 26 08
Great take, Brad.
I think you discovered that my personal bias toward that OU game is showing a bit here.
On balance, yeah, I agree you make a compelling case that the MU game ranks above all others.
brad Jun 26 08
OU, like a national championship, sadly has to be a long-term goal for now. How long? I don't know, but definitely not this season.
Our immediate short term goal needs to be clawing our way back into our own division and gaining stability for our new coaching staff.
I know as Nebraska fans we hate thinking like this, but that's the reality of where we are at.
darren Jun 26 08
Speaking of more modest goals...Steve and I were talking the other day about one. How nice would it be to be able to consistently win at HOME again? Shoot, if NU went 8-4 in the regular season and all of the wins came in Lincoln, I think that would be something.
There was a time when you knew every game played in Memorial Stadium would be a win or very hotly contested. In the 4 years Callahan was here, he lost eight (8!) home games. Along those same lines, Solich's home losses in 2002 and 2003 (two both years, for a total of four) were a sign of things starting to go sour.
For context OU is 54-2 at home under Stoops in nine years. 54-2! There's a notion for Bo - win at home, and stay employed. That's definitely a post for another day.
buffy Jun 26 08
Buffs are going to destroy the Huskers again this year and keep them out of a bowl game.
brad Jun 26 08
buffy,
We've beaten you two out of the last three times. Last year we didn't have a defense at all, but we still put up tons of points on you with a staff who knew they were on their way out.
I have many concerns this season, but your silly little team and it's drunkard fans aren't among them.
Sincerely,
Reality
buffy Jun 26 08
Thanks, Reality. You have to admit, though, the Huskers have some serious problems. The defensive meltdown last year leaves a lot of question marks, they've lost their top 4 linebackers, and Suh is a major disappointment and is coming off knee surgery.
Dwayne Jun 26 08
I don't think the concern is the loss of the 4 top linebackers who probably could have been a little bit more productive under an attacking type of philosophy rather than a reactive one. I don't know anyone disappointed with Suh. Everyone probably understands that the North THIS season probably runs through Columbia.
darren Jun 26 08
Interesting point of view, buffy. Last year's meltdown makes it hard to be too high on NU, especially for those on the outside looking in.
Here's the view from my chair. NU has *talent* in the front four (Turner and Suh, in particular) and depth with a lot of guys who played last year as backups returning. Honestly, I expect it to go from an area of weakness to an area of strength, assuming these guys get the coaching everyone expect. (Big assumption, I know)
Here's my take on linebackers - their cheap. I'm not being a hater. A great LB can be a huge difference maker. But, really it's plugging in athletes. You can convert a safety to OLB, or find a walk on if you have to. They are like runningbacks - dependant on the line in front of them. A great front four (like NU's in 05 and 06) can make a modest crew look great. A bad front four can make a good crew look bad. Hard to scrape and shuffle with a guard in your lap. I'll take my chances with the upcoming crew at NU, because they should have better players in front of and behind them.
You show me a defense counting on linebackers more than linemen, and I'll show you a bad defense. Which brings me back to your CU squad. Don't they have like 13 scholarship linebackers and 5 or 6 scholarship D linemen. :)
tiger transplant Jun 26 08
sorry, shucksters, mizzou breaks the lincoln losing streak this year and takes 3 of the last four games. black and gold have replaced crimson and cream in the big 12 north.
Dwayne Jun 26 08
But does MU have the staying power to be at the top of the division? If they played the first game of the season, probably, but a lot can happen after those first few weeks. Hopefully for you, Daniel stays healthy. We all have witnessed what your fine coach can do with a decent quarterback. I wouldn't be punching your tickets just yet.
Buffy Jun 26 08
The Buffs' D line will be strong with 7 of their top 8 back, and a big impact from the newbies - Hudgins, Obi and Cunningham. It's the best line in Hawkins' tenure.
The Huskers are really going to struggle this season. They were just 2-6 in the Big XII last year, and only have 11 starters returning. Plus, they're trying to learn new schemes with the coaching change. Should be a long season for the Lil' Red.
Dwayne Jun 26 08
Tiger,
I just looked at MU's schedule and you guys are set up pretty nicely for the entire season. If you don't get into that championship game, is Pinkell on the hot seat again? On another note, it looks as if Turner Gill's team will be playing you the week prior to NU. That would be an amazing feat for Husker fans if you dropped that game to Buffalo and then lost to NU the following week.
Greg Morrow Jun 26 08
Wow, looking at the schedule in an order like that, cruising past win no.5 and beyond looks tenuous. Ok, I'll go ahead and notch up Buffy. That's 6.
The rest of the conference teams have most definitely shown a proclivity for embarrassing my beloved Corn, if not outright humiliation.
I love the Virginia Tech game, though. I've always liked their coach and they'll give Nebraska the type of all around game that'll give Nebraska the perfect test, before Missouri and T-Tech. They've always had a reputation for special teams and defense.
I don't expect Nebraska to beat the Hokies, but even in a loss, the game could give a clear indication of the team before the "pinball" offenses come calling.
Husker Mike Jun 26 08
Minor correction... Solich lost 2 home games in 2002 (Texas and Colorado), but only one in 2003 (Kansas State). The fourth loss you must be thinking of is Texas in 1998.
Cal4Huskers Jun 27 08
I think you have the ratings upside down. We are expected to lose to Oklahoma, Mizzou and Texas Tech. But, if Nebraska loses the first three games, the fans and players will likely be thrown into a panic mode. The rest of the season will become a serious challenge and recruitment will be nearly impossible. Those early games are critical to a successful season.
bnahusker Jun 27 08
thiger transplant................
1. Mizzou's 15 minutes are just about up. They have a history of getting to near-great levels in many sports, only to receive a reality check.
2. MU couldn't win in Lincoln with Brad "Superman" Smith, and have lost some key talent. They still have some great athletes, but I'm getting some bad vibes out of Columbia. (I live in Springfield, MO so I get a decent helping of Tiger talk.
3. Crimson is a color not so well recieved in Huskerland. (OU, Bama) Scarlet is the color of choice.
Have a great weekend All!
GBR
Bob
CrimsonIllustrated Jun 27 08
San Jose State's mascot is a Sparton, not a Trojan.
Also, NMSU will be going into the NU game 1-0 (win over Nichols St.) and will be looking to upset NU. NMSU is loaded this year with speed and depth. The Bugeaters had better not let their guard down.
CI
darren Jun 27 08
So noted, CI. I've since made a correction. Sorry about that.
NMSU concerns me less than WM and SJSU. I'm not trying to diss NMSU. But WM beat Iowa and gave Michigan a game last year. And, they run the spread (the great equalizer). And SJSU was in a bowl more recently.
Of course, much more advanced scouting of all teams still to come.
BoKNOWS Jun 27 08
There is a real chance that NU wins only 3 games this year with WMU being tougher than most people think. The Big 12 is a much tougher conference than it was 3 years ago and aside from baylor, there are no easy wins in conference. NU needs to come out of non-con at 3-1 or it could be a long season.
ze bop Jun 28 08
I tend to agree that all games are not created equal. I think it is part of the whole "zen" coach/player speak that has become popular: "be here now", "empty mind is good mind", "all games are equal"(did the buddha say that?) kinda thing that guys like Pete Carrol have taken to another level.
In our jobs, we all pretty much know when we have to give our best and when we can just slide a bit.
And this is why it is sometimes a pain in the tush to be NE cuz every team we face brings their best, even if we are having a down year--guess we haven't had too many down years.
However, OZ always said that all games are big games since it is far worse to lose to SJSU than OU. So they do have to prepare enough to get thru those games and I think the coaches do work nearly as hard for weak teams. A great team plays every week like they are playing in a big game, at least that's the goal.
But realistically it's near impossible to get up emotionally for the 'lesser' teams.
ze bop Jun 28 08
Spartans, Trojans? Who cares what type of condoms those guys use?
Anyhoo, wow, it's hard for me to get a read on Big Red this year. I'm not too worried about our offense, I think they will be very good. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Joey-nator shows he's a better QB than that overrated Reesing guy I'm sick of hearing about.
The defense still concerns me the most though, we have talent there, but I wouldn't say we have more talent than any of the 'good' teams we are facing. Plus, last year, it just seemed like they had no chemistry, no fire, and this I see as the biggest thing BO will have to turn around. Barry Turner was a huge letdown last year, he looked totally out of shape, so who's to say he will be any different this year? That guy is supposed to be a difference maker, but he has fallen far short of that.
Also,I guess I have to somewhat agree with Puffy up there(cringe) and say that there is nothing clearly indicating our D line will be as good as we need either. They will be better, which isn't saying much, but will they be the force we need? Guess we will have to rely on BO P's coaching skills for that one too.
I disagree with Darren's remark that LBS are 'cheap'. LBs are more and more important given the 'pinball' offenses to which Greg refers. LBs have run and pass responsibilities, have to chase any combination of skill guys all around the field and can't be stupid about it. They have to blitz, to fake blitzes and drop back, plug gaps if it's a run, help the safety, help the cb. cover TEs and WRs crossing into their own zones....yada, yada. I think it clearly the most difficult positon on the D, or whole team, short of the QB I suppose. That's why I don't think you can just plug in a guy like Cody Glenn into the Will spot and expect great things right off the bat. So, I guess I'm saying I'm worried about the LB position too. Dillard has got to be DA MAN.
Agree with Brad that Miz-Zoo is the most important game on the schedule and of the 'revenge' games(KU, CU, TTech) it is the one we are least likely to win, though most need/want to win. The game happens too early in the year, I just don't see NE being ready enough.
Daniels is just too good at this point, probably the best spread QB in the country. Big Red should fight them to the end though and rob Daniels the luxury of sitting on the bench pickin' boogers out his nose....
We don't win that one though.
K, so, of other revenge games TTech is the 2nd one I want to win most, though Michael Crabtree is my fav player in the world: the Reggie Bush of receivers! But god, I hate that team after what they 'done' to us.
We will beat the Flying Manginos, you can take that one to the bank.....
And last but not least of the revengees: don't forget Puffy. I see that game as a toss up. Don't exactly know why, CU I see as just getting better and better. They have some really good players on that team, they seem like THE team that gives NE 'matchup' problems, for lack of a better term. They don't fear us. They never have anything to lose playing us.
As for the Sooners, I actually think we have a decent shot at upsetting those guys. The Sooners have shown the last few years that they can overlook teams and get bit in the butt. They might not be up for us is what will give us a shot.
VT is a toss up, but I fear that Tyrod Taylor guy running read options all over the place and it gives me the heeby jeebys.....
Thanks 4 listening...:)
zE oUt!
Dwayne Jun 28 08
Ze,
I agree with you totally about the linebacker, especially the middle. I think Darren did a piece on the defense of the spread attack last season and pointed out how important and how much responsibility that one player has. The middle lb is also typically your vocal leader and bell cow of the defensive unit. As far as anything defensively that was shown last season, I've thrown it out the window in trying to compare this season's d line. Cosgrove has a totally different philosophy than Bo has and if there is one thing that makes me feel better heading into this season is that Bo is in charge of that unit. I was in favor of NU hiring Turner but the more I've thought about it, I'm very pleased with the hire of Bo. The thing that keeps coming back to mind for me is that 2003 unit. The year prior it was MIA and he put players into position of where they needed to be. How do we know if there aren't players just ready to bloom? There will be someone that no one has talked about and he will have a break out year. I'm guessing it's going to be Culbert. I think the gentlemen at BRN need to do a piece on their thoughts on that. Who's in for a big season??? It would be an interesting thread.
ze bop Jun 28 08
Dwayne,
Hey, cool, I don't think anyone has ever agreed with me b 4!! Woohoo, let's get drunk!
And, as it turns out, I agree with your assessment/forecast for the D in '08. Maybe the best thing you can say about the line is that they probably are the most experienced as a unit.
But, yeah, we have some really good talent--Assante, Murillo, Thenarse, Dillard, Culbert--just gotta have BO getting them to play like football players.
I have to review the roster again, can't remember some of the newbies that might see time. But the name Blake Lawrence comes to mind as another guy that might step it up this year.