Did the Huskers Dodge a Bullet?
3 comments so far
May 29, 2008 by
Nebraska has had 31 head football coaches over the past 117 years. Of those, 21 won their first game as head coach at NU, 9 opened with losses and one (Dana Bible) tied his initial contest. While no one knows exactly what we can expect under Bo Pelini we have seen him win his first game as head coach of the Huskers and history tells us that’s far better than the alternative.
Debut winners went a combined 711-219-26 (or a winning percentage of 0.757) over their careers. Losers on the other hand went a combined 44-96-6 (or a winning percentage of 0.322). Bible looked like the winners going 50-15-7 (a winning percentage of 0.743). Given those choices, it’s good to know that Pelini’s Alamo Bowl win as interim head coach in 2003 puts him with the winners.
Simply winning the first game doesn’t guarantee a great career. Bill Glassford went 31-35-3 in his Nebraska career (0.471) and Pete Elliot went 4-6 in his only year at the helm. The other 19 head coaches all finished with more wins than losses, including the last four (Bob Devaney, Tom Osborne, Frank Solich, and Bill Callahan).
But expectations at Nebraska are higher than simply playing above 0.500. Frank Solich’s 0.753 winning percentage wasn’t enough to keep him employed. But what about another measuring stick – winning your first bowl game? That’s a much more select group that includes only Pelini, Osborne, Devaney, and Callahan (though Callahan needed two seasons to achieve bowl eligibility). The four coaches have a combined 384-91-5 record (a 0.805 winning percentage). Restrict it to coaches in bowls in their first seasons and you get Osborne, Devaney, and Pelini. Not a bad mix. That would give you 357-69-5 (a 0.834 winning percentage), 5 national championships, and about 21 conference championships.
Of course, Pelini’s Alamo Bowl win doesn’t really guarantee any of those things but it does exclude him from a list that includes all of people that went below 0.400 in their Nebraska careers. That’s the kind of company we all want him to avoid.
» Enjoy this article?
Send it to your friend or get Husker news by email!
Related Stories: Bo Pelini
Post a comment
darren May 29 08
Great context, Steve.
It's often very easy for fans to imagine that Husker football somehow started with Osborne. Devaney and his predecessors obviously count, too.
Cool that you found that stat correlation. Winning tends to beget winning.
doombob May 29 08
Causation does mean correlation in this case. A (long term) winning coach is definitely more likely to win their first game. I'm still not sure I count that Bowl game as Pelini's first coached game, though. Let me re-phrase that. It was his first coached college game as a head coach, but his first game coaching his own team will be this fall.
Greg Morrow May 29 08
Hmmm. I need to gnaw on that one for a moment. (Pause)...
I'd suppose the success rate of guys starting 4-0 would portend well too, no? Okay, time to break out the yearbook.
After a cursory "analysis," relative to the competition, Pelini should compare with Coach Lawrence McCeney "Biff" Jones, who coached from '37 to '41, with a 28-14-4 record including the Rose Bowl. Not a bad record, but he followed probably the 3rd best Nebraska coach all time, in Dana X. Bible. He had two losing seasons. Actually, Frank has a better record, than Dana X. (Didn't ATM "big time" Nebraska for Bible's services?) Anyway, "Biff" Jones left Nebraska to serve the U.S. in the war.
So, you're going to have to mix in some tough seasons and hang in there, with young Bo.
I think at this point, us Nebraska fans need to look to our patient agrarian roots. For the city folks, I have no answer for you. You'll just have to lose your minds in the blog nether world!